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Why We Shouldn’t Freak Out About Dom Dwyer’s Miss on Saturday

Published

7 years ago

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Dom Dwyer has understandably been the subject of many scalding hot takes after his miss on Saturday. Ruan put the ball on a platter for him six minutes after he was introduced off the bench at New York City FC and the Orlando City striker botched what many have called “the easiest chance he’ll have all year.”

Personally, I hope Dwyer has some easier chances still to come in 2019 as Orlando’s newer players learn more about the diminutive forward and give him even better quality service, but I’ll not argue against Saturday’s chance being the sitterest of sitters. Many have criticized Dwyer’s finishing this season and rightfully so, as he’s not been as sharp to start the season as we might expect, considering the quality of chances. It’s perfectly fine to be mad or even #MadOnline about Dwyer’s miss. It’s possible he’s let it go by now himself, but no doubt he was kicking himself for it on Saturday.

But the Cuckfield, England native has always been a streaky player and it’s something that our Sporting Kansas City brethren talked about at the time Orlando City acquired him via trade in 2017.

Dom is a streaky player and while he scored the second-most goals of anyone in club history, he could have and really should have had many more. Some fans have been screaming for years now that Dwyer is overrated, but they are crazy. 

Dom has always been this way and it’s revisionist history to think otherwise. He misses maddeningly simple-looking chances, but he does provide offense.

Just because Dwyer has been streaky at finishing, it doesn’t mean he hasn’t been a productive contributor. In fact, as difficult as it was for me to believe when crunching the numbers, he’s actually been contributing at a higher rate than is typical throughout his career, although nine games is admittedly a small sample size.

For all the hand wringing by fans, Dwyer has been involved in five goals in nine games, scoring three and setting up two others. He’s only finished with more than his current tally of two assists on the season twice in his career. He assisted on five goals in 2017 — four of those coming after he was traded from Sporting Kansas City to Orlando City — and three in 2016. A striker involved in an average of a goal every other game is generally considered good in MLS. Maybe not Zlatan-level or Carlos Vela-level, but generally within what one might expect. (If you’re looking for Carlos Vela-level, you’ll have to convince Orlando City to go out and get Vela.)

But let’s look deeper to see if this is “not the same Dwyer” that was producing at SKC.

So far in 2019, Dwyer is scoring or assisting on a goal for every 104.8 minutes he’s on the pitch. His previous best goals + assists rate was once every 118.4 minutes in 2014. That season, Dwyer scored a career-high 22 goals with one assist in 33 appearances (31 starts) for a defending MLS champion Sporting side that went 14-13-7 in the Eastern (yes, Eastern) Conference. The Sporks made the playoffs that year but were knocked out by the Red Bulls in the first round. Dwyer scored 22 of SKC’s 48 total goals that year.

Here’s how Dwyer has done through the years:

  • 2019 (So far): Goal or assist every 104.8 minutes in nine games (four starts).
  • 2018: Goal or assist every 172.6 minutes in 26 games (25 starts).
  • 2017 (Orlando only): Goal or assist every 121.9 minutes in 12 games (11 starts).
  • 2017 (Overall): Goal or assist every 160.4 minutes in 27 games (25 starts).
  • 2016: Goal or assist every 148.6 minutes in 33 games (31 starts).
  • 2015: Goal or assist every 181.9 minutes in 30 games (28 starts).
  • 2014: Goal or assist every 118.4 minutes in 33 games (31 starts).
  • 2013: Goal or assist every 168.5 minutes in 16 games (7 starts).
  • 2012: No goals or assists in four minutes of play in one game (subbed on).

In looking at 2019 Dom vs. Doms from other years, the current model is not producing fewer goals + assists per minutes played. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. Admittedly this review doesn’t take into account advanced metrics like expected goals, but it’s still telling. After all, if he’s producing at a higher rate in terms of goals + assists per minutes but he’s not finishing as many expected goals as he should be, that should indicate he’s at least getting into position more often for an expected goal than ever before. I’ll leave the xG breakdown for another day, as this piece is already long.

Add in the fact that most of Dwyer’s previous top seasons have come while playing on a solid playoff team in Kansas City, meaning he probably had a better overall surrounding cast, and this year’s numbers are more surprising. But there is another factor that I haven’t yet addressed.

Dwyer has been a starting striker throughout his career since 2014. He’s made a few substitute appearances but the high mark for that came way back in 2013, when he was breaking into the league. That year, he was used as a sub nine times in 16 matches. Since then, Dwyer has subbed on no more than twice in any season until this year. He was a sub only once in 2018 and just twice in 2017 (once for Orlando, once for SKC), 2016, 2015, and 2014.

Still only age 28, one wouldn’t think Dwyer to be over the hill quite yet. However, he has had some nagging injuries in recent seasons, so it’s logical that James O’Connor would like to manage his minutes to keep him fresh throughout the season.

That said, the numbers show a disparity when Dwyer starts versus when he comes off the bench.

Because he hasn’t been used as a sub much throughout his career, it’s difficult to draw many conclusions from previous seasons. Subbing on only once or twice a year doesn’t reveal many patterns. The only two seasons in which he had a nearly 50/50 split of starts to substitute appearances have been 2013 and (so far) 2019.

It’s difficult to glean much from 2013, because his first nine appearances of that year were off the bench and he played fewer than 10 minutes in four of those as he was still establishing himself in the league. Still, he managed only one goal and no assists in those nine games, firing six shots but getting only one on target — his goal against the New York Red Bulls on Aug. 3, 2013. His first start of that season produced a Dwyer assist and one shot (on target) against the Colorado Rapids. After not seeing the field against Columbus, Dwyer started SKC’s last six games, scoring a goal and adding an assist while taking 21 shots (five on frame).

In 2019 it’s been easier to track his production as a starter versus as a sub. He’s no longer a young player breaking into the side. How he’s gotten his appearances has been more consistent and he’s not had a long streak of starts or sub appearances. With a more even distribution of his appearances, some patterns have emerged early this season.

Dwyer has appeared in nine games, with four starts and five games as a substitute. In his four starts, Dom has played 342 minutes, scoring two goals, firing 20 shots (eight on target) and committing six fouls. As a sub, Dwyer has played 182 minutes, producing one goal and two assists, firing five shots (officially four, but somehow the scorer didn’t give him one on Saturday at NYCFC, so I had to add it for the purposes of this piece) with just two on target. He’s committed 10 fouls as a sub.

Breaking down these numbers further, Dwyer produces a goal every 171 minutes as a starter and also a goal or assist every 171 minutes as a starter. As a sub, Dwyer is producing a goal every 182 minutes but there is a slight uptick in goals + assists, with one or the other produced every 60.7 minutes. As for chances, Dwyer averages a shot every 17.1 minutes when starting in 2019 as opposed to a shot every 36.4 minutes off the bench. He shoots on frame once every 42.8 minutes as a starter compared to once every 91 (!) minutes off the bench. Finally, Dwyer commits a foul about once every 57 minutes when starting while being whistled once every 18.2 minutes as a substitute.

With his two assists in 2019 providing a bit of an outlier in terms of his starting versus bench production, Dwyer seems more comfortable as a starter than as a sub. His goals, shots, and shots on target come more frequently when he starts the game and he doesn’t foul at nearly so high a rate as he does when he’s brought on later in the game.

Again, small sample size, but his numbers so far indicate he’s sharper when he’s on the field at kickoff rather than on the bench, as he’s cleaner with challenges and doesn’t go as long between shots or shots on target. Given the data available, O’Connor might be wise to find time in the second halves of games to get Dwyer rest rather than subbing him on later. The logic behind putting a quick, pesky Dwyer on against a fatigued back line is unassailable. It makes so much sense you’d need to be insane not to try it. But if Dwyer is going to find his rhythm and get hot again, it might be wiser to start him, because his numbers seem to indicate a higher comfort level in that role.

That said, maybe if O’Connor sticks with the current plan, Dwyer will adjust to his more varied role over time. As I’ve said, repeatedly, it’s early.

As for Dwyer’s miss Saturday, it happens in soccer. This weekend alone, Christian Ramirez of LAFC also missed a would-be game-winner on a chance where it was harder to miss the empty net than hit it.

But even those among the most prolific scorers in the game’s history can lack the right touch at the crucial moment.

Benching Dwyer won’t get him back into top form and the options behind him are limited to Tesho Akindele — who has a career high of seven goals back in 2014 — rookies Santiago Patino or Benji Michel, or someone who isn’t really a striker. So right now Dwyer is the best option for Orlando City and it’s probably best for all involved that he continues to get starts for now in order to try to round himself back into top form. The club can always re-evaluate the striker position in the lead-up to the summer window if things don’t change.

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More

Orlando City restarts its 2026 MLS campaign late tonight out west at San Jose.

Published

2 weeks ago

on

July 22, 2026

By

Image of Braian Ojeda taking a shot in a friendly against FC Dallas.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Justin Glatt

Welcome to your match thread for a late night midweek matchup tonight between Orlando City (4-9-2, 14 points) and the San Jose Earthquakes (10-3-2, 32 points) at PayPal Park (10:30 p.m., Apple TV). This is the only scheduled meeting between the teams in 2026 and the first time the teams have met since 2024.

Here’s what you need to know ahead of tonight’s match.

History

Orlando City is 3-1-3 in the previous seven MLS meetings with the Quakes since the club joined Major League Soccer in 2015. The Lions got their only away win in the series in the last meeting and enter tonight 1-1-2 on the road against San Jose.

The teams last met on May 18, 2024, with Jack Lynn coming off the bench to score the game’s only goal. Lynn’s strike in the 89th minute broke the scoreless deadlock and lifted the Lions to a 1-0 victory.

The teams met in Orlando most recently way back on June 22, 2021, with the Lions beating the Quakes down, 5-0. Orlando got things started with an early penalty kick goal by Nani, followed by braces from Benji Michel and Daryl Dike to easily put the game away. The lasting memory from the game is Michel’s celebratory dance wearing a cowboy hat that came out of the stands.

Prior to that Orlando City romp, the last time the teams met was on Aug. 31, 2019 when the Lions got freight trained 3-0 at Avaya Stadium, giving the Quakes their first win in the series. San Jose’s offense came via a Chris Wondolowski brace and an early opening goal by Magnus Eriksson. Orlando looked flat and weary out of the gate.

The Lions were victorious in Exploria Stadium in the 2018 meeting on April 21, a 3-2 Orlando win. It was the first win in the series for either side after three straight draws. Chris Mueller, Sacha Kljestan, and Dom Dwyer gave the Lions a 3-0 lead before Florian Jungwirth pulled two back in the game’s late stages.

The Lions led all of the first three matches in the second half only to see San Jose pull level, with two of those tying goals coming late. In the 2017 meeting, Carlos Rivas finally broke the scoreless tie and gave Orlando City the lead in the 81st minute, but Wondolowski spoiled the Lions’ night with an equalizer two minutes later as the teams drew at Avaya Stadium, 1-1.

In 2016, the Lions were gut-punched in the 94th minute in an emotional match that ended in a 2-2 draw. It was the first home match following the Pulse nightclub tragedy and what appeared to be a storybook ending to a cathartic win turned sour on a last-gasp equalizer by Shea Salinas. Seb Hines — now the Orlando Pride’s head coach — opened the scoring for Orlando, only to see Chad Barrett tie it up. Julio Baptista restored the lead in stoppage time, but Salinas ruined everything.

The two teams also drew in the first meeting, a 1-1 affair at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, with the Lions down to 10 men after Brek Shea was sent off in the first half. Kaká and Wondolowski each scored from the penalty spot four minutes apart in that initial meeting.

Overview

The teams meet tonight to get their post-World Cup portion of the season started. Orlando City has been terrible on the road all season long, keeping only one MLS opponent under two goals all year away from home and allowing five goals twice (at New York City FC and Nashville) and six goals twice (at LAFC and in the team’s most recent match away at FC Cincinnati just before the break).

Orlando City is a putrid 1-6-1 on the road this season, and now the Lions must face the Western Conference co-leaders tonight before coming home to face Supporters’ Shield-leading Nashville SC at home on Saturday. They’ll have to play at least tonight’s game without Martin Ojeda, who is out with a thigh injury sustained some time between his first-half goal a week ago in a friendly against FC Dallas and the time the availability report dropped on Tuesday.

But it isn’t all bad news for the Lions, who should have both Antoine Griezmann and Dike in the lineup. Griezmann was the club’s highly prized and widely publicized summer Designated Player signing, while Dike’s return to Orlando came together more recently, following his departure from West Bromwich Albion. They’ll help the club’s offense, but the attack hasn’t been the issue in 2026 — it’s been the historically porous defense, which is on pace to shatter the MLS record for goals conceded.

Meanwhile, San Jose is one of the first half of the season’s biggest surprises, as the Quakes have been outstanding in 2026. Scoring 34 goals while conceding just 15, San Jose is among the league leaders in goals scored (tied for third), goals conceded (third), and goal differential (+19, third).

The Earthquakes are 4-2-1 at home and are coming off a 3-1 road win at Portland in their last game prior to the World Cup break. San Jose boasts Golden Boot challenger Preston Judd, who leads the Quakes with 11 goals, adding two assists in his 15 appearances. Ousseni Bouda has chipped in five goals and three assists. Niko Tsakiris leads the team with seven assists to go along with his two goals, but he’s still recovering from a lower body injury and is not available tonight. However, the arrival of Timo Werner (four goals and five assists in just seven games) has truly elevated Bruce Arena’s Quakes, and he’ll need to be one of the main focal points for the Orlando defense.

To have any shot at taking something from this game, the Lions will need to play better road defense than they have all season. Orlando can score goals, but with Ojeda out, Griezmann will need to adapt quickly, and someone other than the team’s leading scorer will need to find the net.

The Lions will play without Ojeda (thigh), Joran Gerbet (knee), Nolan Miller (knee), Colin Guske (international duty), and Clovis Archage (international duty). In addition, Marco Pasalic may or may not have returned to the team after the World Cup. He was not in training Monday, although interim head coach Martin Perelman said he expected the Croatian back soon. The Earthquakes will be without Nonso Adimabua (lower body), former Lion Earl Edwards Jr. (lower body), DeJuan Jones (lower body), and Tsakiris (you guessed it, lower body…come on, San Jose).

Match Content

Official Lineups:

Orlando City (4-4-2)

Goalkeeper: Maxime Crepeau.

Defenders: Adrian Marin, David Brekalo, Robin Jansson, Griffin Dorsey.

Midfielders: Ivan Angulo, Braian Ojeda, Eduard Atuesta, Tiago.

Forwards: Justin Ellis, Antoine Griezmann.

Bench: Javier Otero, Bernardo Rhein, Tahir Reid-Brown, Zakaria Taifi, Iago, Wilder Cartagena, Luis Otavio, Harvey Sarajian, Tyrese Spicer

San Jose Earthquakes (4-2-3-1)

Goalkeeper: Angus Gunn.

Defenders: Jamar Ricketts, Reid Roberts, Daniel Munie, Benjamin Kikanovic.

Defensive Midfielders: Beau Lerouox, Ronaldo Vieira.

Attacking Midfielders: Timo Werner, Nick Fernandez, Ousseni Bouda.

Forwards: Preston Judd.

Bench: Jonathan Gonzalez, Dave Romney, Paul Marie, Jack Skahan, Jack Jasinski, Ian Harkes, Francesco Montali, Max Floriani, Darius Johnson.

Referees

REF: Elijio Arreguin.
AR1: Adam Wienckowski.
AR2: Mike Nickerson.
4TH: Timothy Ford.
VAR: Jose Carlos Rivero.
AVAR: TJ Zablocki.

How to Watch

Match Time: 10:30 p.m.

Venue: PayPal Park — San Jose, CA.

TV/Live Stream: Apple TV.

Radio: AM 810 FOX Sports Radio Orlando (English), Mega 97.1 FM (Spanish), Nossa Rádio 1160 AM-WRLZ (Portuguese).

Social Media: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow us on Bluesky Social at @themaneland.bsky.social or follow Orlando City’s official Twitter (@OrlandoCitySC) or Bluesky (@OrlandoCitySC) feed.

Enjoy the match. Go City!

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Podcasts

PawedCast Episode 542: Tampa Bay Friendly, McGuire Traded, OCB Beats Cincinnati, and More

Lions maul the Rowdies in friendly action, OCB wins on the road, and it’s transfer season.

Published

3 weeks ago

on

July 14, 2026

By

Image of Antoine Griezmann and Ivan Angulo celebrating a goal in a friendly against the Tampa Bay Rowdies.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City welcomed I-4 Derby rival Tampa Bay to Inter&Co Stadium for a friendly match on Wednesday and then proceeded to bludgeon the Rowdies with a couple of hammers named Antoine Griezmann and Justin Ellis. The two attackers combined for a goal and four assists in a 6-0 beatdown of the team from the Gulf Coast, with five different Lions scoring and Griffin Dorsey forcing an own goal. We discuss Griezmann’s first minutes with Orlando City, what the team showed in its formation, and how good Justin Ellis’ vision is.

Oh, and it’s also transfer season now. Duncan McGuire is on his way out and Marco Pasalic reportedly will follow soon, while a new left back may be headed from Spain to Orlando.

Following all of that, we discuss Maxime Crepeau being added to the MLS All-Star Team and the announcement that he’ll participate in the 2026 MLS All-Star Skills Challenge.

Our mailbagbox asked us about which World Cup semifinalist players we’d want to join Orlando this season (if we could only pick one), and more. Remember, if there’s anything — and we do mean anything — you want us to address on the show, just ask us by tweeting it to us at @TheManeLand with the hashtag #AskTMLPC, or hitting us up on Bluesky Social with that same hashtag.

After the mailbagbox, we dive into OCB’s 2-1 road win at FC Cincinnati 2. It wasn’t the prettiest game by the Young Lions, but they managed to do enough to earn three points on the road, where they’ll stay to face Chattanooga on Saturday. We briefly preview that game.

Finally, Orlando City will be in Dallas Wednesday for the second of two friendlies leading up to the restart of the MLS season. It’s unlikely we’ll get a lot of details about that one, but we’ll see what happens. Maybe the FC Dallas folks will help us out.

Be sure to rate and review our show wherever you get your podcasts. Remember, we’ll read any five-star reviews we get on Apple Podcasts on the next show.

If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.

Here’s how No. 542 went down:

0:15 – Orlando City crushed the Rowdies, the transfer season is in full swing, plus: hey now, Crepeau’s an all-star.

28:50 – The mailbagbox is always good for a hypothetical scenario.

36:54 – The Young Lions slipped past Cincy and head to Chattanooga, while the senior Lions head to Dallas.

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Podcasts

SkoPurp Soccer Episode 119: International Break, USWNT, Louisville Preview, and More

The Pride return from a long international break looking to get their first-ever road win against Racing Louisville.

Published

3 months ago

on

April 22, 2026

By

Image of Haley McCutcheon scoring the opening goal in Orlando's home playoff win over Seattle.
Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

It feels like months since the Orlando Pride last took the field, but the calendar says otherwise. If you believe calendars, it’s only been a little less than three weeks, but time moves strangely in the post-pandemic apocalyptic world.

Anyway, we don’t have a match to recap, so we touched on a couple of Pride players putting the ball in the net during the international break and chat a bit about the United States Women’s National Team’s three-game friendly series against Japan. Emma Hayes used a lot of players, and the team looked solid for two of the three matches, but the rotated middle game seemed a bit disjointed. Hayes has greatly expanded the player pool and will have plenty of options when the World Cup approaches.

Our mailbagbox had questions about a potential change in the NWSL schedule, as the league explores adopting the fall-to-spring slate, and opposition own goals. Remember, you can ask us anything by hitting us up on Twitter at either @TheManeLand or @SkoPurpSoccer and using the hashtag #AskSkoPurp. You can use that same hashtag and hit @TheManeLand.bsky.social up on Bluesky. Or you can visit our show page, scroll down, and fill out the handy form. We’d also appreciate any ratings or reviews you can leave wherever you get your podcasts, and if you do that on Apple Podcasts, we’ll find them easily and read them on the show.

After the mailbagbox, we turned our attention toward Friday’s late afternoon tussle with Racing Louisville in Kentucky. The Pride have never won on the road against Louisville, and it’s about high time they did. This match begins a congested push to the June World Cup break, and although Friday’s hosts aren’t high in the table, the Pride must be at their best to get a road result in this fixture. We look back at the series history, compare the two sides, provide our key matchups in the game, and make our final score predictions.

If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.

Here’s how Episode 119 went down:

0:15 – We open the show with a little banter about the Pride in the international break and the USWNT’s series vs. Japan.

9:03 – The mailbagbox features questions via both eletronic mail and social media. We welcome all modes of delivery.

19:59 – The Pride travel to Louisville to face Racing. They’ve never won in Kentucky, but we inform them how to do so.

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