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Why We Shouldn’t Freak Out About Dom Dwyer’s Miss on Saturday

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Dom Dwyer has understandably been the subject of many scalding hot takes after his miss on Saturday. Ruan put the ball on a platter for him six minutes after he was introduced off the bench at New York City FC and the Orlando City striker botched what many have called “the easiest chance he’ll have all year.”

Personally, I hope Dwyer has some easier chances still to come in 2019 as Orlando’s newer players learn more about the diminutive forward and give him even better quality service, but I’ll not argue against Saturday’s chance being the sitterest of sitters. Many have criticized Dwyer’s finishing this season and rightfully so, as he’s not been as sharp to start the season as we might expect, considering the quality of chances. It’s perfectly fine to be mad or even #MadOnline about Dwyer’s miss. It’s possible he’s let it go by now himself, but no doubt he was kicking himself for it on Saturday.

But the Cuckfield, England native has always been a streaky player and it’s something that our Sporting Kansas City brethren talked about at the time Orlando City acquired him via trade in 2017.

Dom is a streaky player and while he scored the second-most goals of anyone in club history, he could have and really should have had many more. Some fans have been screaming for years now that Dwyer is overrated, but they are crazy. 

Dom has always been this way and it’s revisionist history to think otherwise. He misses maddeningly simple-looking chances, but he does provide offense.

Just because Dwyer has been streaky at finishing, it doesn’t mean he hasn’t been a productive contributor. In fact, as difficult as it was for me to believe when crunching the numbers, he’s actually been contributing at a higher rate than is typical throughout his career, although nine games is admittedly a small sample size.

For all the hand wringing by fans, Dwyer has been involved in five goals in nine games, scoring three and setting up two others. He’s only finished with more than his current tally of two assists on the season twice in his career. He assisted on five goals in 2017 — four of those coming after he was traded from Sporting Kansas City to Orlando City — and three in 2016. A striker involved in an average of a goal every other game is generally considered good in MLS. Maybe not Zlatan-level or Carlos Vela-level, but generally within what one might expect. (If you’re looking for Carlos Vela-level, you’ll have to convince Orlando City to go out and get Vela.)

But let’s look deeper to see if this is “not the same Dwyer” that was producing at SKC.

So far in 2019, Dwyer is scoring or assisting on a goal for every 104.8 minutes he’s on the pitch. His previous best goals + assists rate was once every 118.4 minutes in 2014. That season, Dwyer scored a career-high 22 goals with one assist in 33 appearances (31 starts) for a defending MLS champion Sporting side that went 14-13-7 in the Eastern (yes, Eastern) Conference. The Sporks made the playoffs that year but were knocked out by the Red Bulls in the first round. Dwyer scored 22 of SKC’s 48 total goals that year.

Here’s how Dwyer has done through the years:

  • 2019 (So far): Goal or assist every 104.8 minutes in nine games (four starts).
  • 2018: Goal or assist every 172.6 minutes in 26 games (25 starts).
  • 2017 (Orlando only): Goal or assist every 121.9 minutes in 12 games (11 starts).
  • 2017 (Overall): Goal or assist every 160.4 minutes in 27 games (25 starts).
  • 2016: Goal or assist every 148.6 minutes in 33 games (31 starts).
  • 2015: Goal or assist every 181.9 minutes in 30 games (28 starts).
  • 2014: Goal or assist every 118.4 minutes in 33 games (31 starts).
  • 2013: Goal or assist every 168.5 minutes in 16 games (7 starts).
  • 2012: No goals or assists in four minutes of play in one game (subbed on).

In looking at 2019 Dom vs. Doms from other years, the current model is not producing fewer goals + assists per minutes played. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. Admittedly this review doesn’t take into account advanced metrics like expected goals, but it’s still telling. After all, if he’s producing at a higher rate in terms of goals + assists per minutes but he’s not finishing as many expected goals as he should be, that should indicate he’s at least getting into position more often for an expected goal than ever before. I’ll leave the xG breakdown for another day, as this piece is already long.

Add in the fact that most of Dwyer’s previous top seasons have come while playing on a solid playoff team in Kansas City, meaning he probably had a better overall surrounding cast, and this year’s numbers are more surprising. But there is another factor that I haven’t yet addressed.

Dwyer has been a starting striker throughout his career since 2014. He’s made a few substitute appearances but the high mark for that came way back in 2013, when he was breaking into the league. That year, he was used as a sub nine times in 16 matches. Since then, Dwyer has subbed on no more than twice in any season until this year. He was a sub only once in 2018 and just twice in 2017 (once for Orlando, once for SKC), 2016, 2015, and 2014.

Still only age 28, one wouldn’t think Dwyer to be over the hill quite yet. However, he has had some nagging injuries in recent seasons, so it’s logical that James O’Connor would like to manage his minutes to keep him fresh throughout the season.

That said, the numbers show a disparity when Dwyer starts versus when he comes off the bench.

Because he hasn’t been used as a sub much throughout his career, it’s difficult to draw many conclusions from previous seasons. Subbing on only once or twice a year doesn’t reveal many patterns. The only two seasons in which he had a nearly 50/50 split of starts to substitute appearances have been 2013 and (so far) 2019.

It’s difficult to glean much from 2013, because his first nine appearances of that year were off the bench and he played fewer than 10 minutes in four of those as he was still establishing himself in the league. Still, he managed only one goal and no assists in those nine games, firing six shots but getting only one on target — his goal against the New York Red Bulls on Aug. 3, 2013. His first start of that season produced a Dwyer assist and one shot (on target) against the Colorado Rapids. After not seeing the field against Columbus, Dwyer started SKC’s last six games, scoring a goal and adding an assist while taking 21 shots (five on frame).

In 2019 it’s been easier to track his production as a starter versus as a sub. He’s no longer a young player breaking into the side. How he’s gotten his appearances has been more consistent and he’s not had a long streak of starts or sub appearances. With a more even distribution of his appearances, some patterns have emerged early this season.

Dwyer has appeared in nine games, with four starts and five games as a substitute. In his four starts, Dom has played 342 minutes, scoring two goals, firing 20 shots (eight on target) and committing six fouls. As a sub, Dwyer has played 182 minutes, producing one goal and two assists, firing five shots (officially four, but somehow the scorer didn’t give him one on Saturday at NYCFC, so I had to add it for the purposes of this piece) with just two on target. He’s committed 10 fouls as a sub.

Breaking down these numbers further, Dwyer produces a goal every 171 minutes as a starter and also a goal or assist every 171 minutes as a starter. As a sub, Dwyer is producing a goal every 182 minutes but there is a slight uptick in goals + assists, with one or the other produced every 60.7 minutes. As for chances, Dwyer averages a shot every 17.1 minutes when starting in 2019 as opposed to a shot every 36.4 minutes off the bench. He shoots on frame once every 42.8 minutes as a starter compared to once every 91 (!) minutes off the bench. Finally, Dwyer commits a foul about once every 57 minutes when starting while being whistled once every 18.2 minutes as a substitute.

With his two assists in 2019 providing a bit of an outlier in terms of his starting versus bench production, Dwyer seems more comfortable as a starter than as a sub. His goals, shots, and shots on target come more frequently when he starts the game and he doesn’t foul at nearly so high a rate as he does when he’s brought on later in the game.

Again, small sample size, but his numbers so far indicate he’s sharper when he’s on the field at kickoff rather than on the bench, as he’s cleaner with challenges and doesn’t go as long between shots or shots on target. Given the data available, O’Connor might be wise to find time in the second halves of games to get Dwyer rest rather than subbing him on later. The logic behind putting a quick, pesky Dwyer on against a fatigued back line is unassailable. It makes so much sense you’d need to be insane not to try it. But if Dwyer is going to find his rhythm and get hot again, it might be wiser to start him, because his numbers seem to indicate a higher comfort level in that role.

That said, maybe if O’Connor sticks with the current plan, Dwyer will adjust to his more varied role over time. As I’ve said, repeatedly, it’s early.

As for Dwyer’s miss Saturday, it happens in soccer. This weekend alone, Christian Ramirez of LAFC also missed a would-be game-winner on a chance where it was harder to miss the empty net than hit it.

But even those among the most prolific scorers in the game’s history can lack the right touch at the crucial moment.

Benching Dwyer won’t get him back into top form and the options behind him are limited to Tesho Akindele — who has a career high of seven goals back in 2014 — rookies Santiago Patino or Benji Michel, or someone who isn’t really a striker. So right now Dwyer is the best option for Orlando City and it’s probably best for all involved that he continues to get starts for now in order to try to round himself back into top form. The club can always re-evaluate the striker position in the lead-up to the summer window if things don’t change.

Orlando City

The Mane Land Roundtable: 2026 Orlando City Preseason Thoughts

The staff weighs in on the season to come in advance of Oscar Pareja’s seventh season in charge of the Lions.

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As we head into the 2026 MLS season this weekend, it’s time to once again get a feel for the hopes and expectations for the campaign that awaits. Orlando City enters the season with big questions about the team’s depth, especially on the back line with captain Robin Jansson out recovering from foot surgery. There’s also a big hole in the attack with an open Designated Player spot. The only group that feels more than sufficient is the central midfield.

I reached out to The Mane Land staff to find out what everyone is thinking ahead of the Lions’ 12th season in Major League Soccer. Big thanks to the entire staff for submitting their thoughts.


Orlando City had a quick exit to the 2025 playoffs. A team that was seemingly close to a title in 2024 went the wrong direction and changes were made. Aside from Alex Freeman, which was the biggest off-season loss for the Lions?

Don VanDemark: There’s no specific player leaving that is concerning. However, looking at the bench for the last preseason game, it was full of new or young names. A youth movement is afoot, for good or for ill.

David Rohe: Prior to the addition of Griffin Dorsey earlier this week, I would have said Dagur Dan Thorhallsson. After the Dorsey signing, I’m still going with Thorhallsson. Dorsey will start at right back with Zakaria Taifi as the backup. That’s all well and good, but I’d still like to have Thorhallsson’s versatility. The guy could start at right back or in the midfield and be a solid contributor. 

Ben Miller: Depth in defense. Rodrigo Schlegel, Kyle Smith, and Thorhallsson are all out the door, and while the team loaded up on defenders in the SuperDraft, there is very little depth in defense with tangible minutes at the professional level. The acquisition of Dorsey helps the right back position a lot, but things are still perilously thin at center back.

Joshua Taylor: The biggest off-season loss for the Lions is Pedro Gallese, who was the club’s primary goalkeeper for the previous six seasons. Gallese’s form had been in decline as of late, but replacing a top goalkeeper who was part of the Lions’ success and played a key role in helping Orlando make six straight playoff appearances won’t be easy. Maxime Crepeau has a tough task, but he is motivated to prove he is a top-quality goalkeeper. He will need to adapt quickly and perform well early in the season while also striving to make Canada’s World Cup squad this summer.

Marcus Mitchell: I’ll go with Cesar Araujo. While I think Braian Ojeda will do well to fill the void left, Araujo and Wilder Cartagena were a winning pair in this league back in 2024 and it’s a shame we’ll never see them together again in Orlando.

Sean Rollins: The biggest off-season loss to me is Gallese. Had the club made an upgrade by signing Carlos Coronel, that might not be the case. However, I don’t see Crepeau as that much of an upgrade. It’s especially troubling since the back line is weaker than last season. Araujo is also a big loss, but I think the return of Cartagena makes his loss less concerning than Gallese.

Matthew David: I’d have to say Thorhallsson. He was a very good right back/right wingback and brought a lot of energy and enterprise. He was only displaced by a truly exceptional athelete in Freeman and there is no shame in that.

Andrew DeSalvo: Thomas Williams was the tallest of the off-season losses, but in the spirit of the question, the biggest off-season loss was Araújo, because he was the kind of player who could have still been penciled into the lineup for easily the next five years and is only just now moving into the prime age for a central midfielder. The Uruguayan was an engine in the midfield and a pest who other teams hated to play against, and while Orlando City’s depth chart in the central midfield may be the deepest among all positions, I wish that the team had been able to get him to stay and could have looked to acquire players elsewhere on the field.

My Take: Because of the way it worked out, I think it’s Gallese. Coronel would have been a slight upgrade at this stage of Gallese’s career, but I’m not sure Crepeau is better or even if he’s as good as El Pulpo. A healthy Cartagena is a high-quality replacement for Araujo. I understand the picks for Thorhallsson the way the right back position was decimated in the off-season, but Dorsey is a good pickup at the cusp of the season.

Image of Pedro Gallese celebrating his penalty kick goal against Toluca.
You will be missed, El Pulpo.

With the season just a day away, how would you grade the Orlando City off-season?

Dave: It gets a D from me. There were certainly things that can be chalked up to bad luck or bad timing (Coronel ghosting the Lions, Freeman being sold), but that doesn’t change the fact that at least in the short term this team is worse off than the end of last season. Ricardo Moreira has a lot of make-up work to do to get a passing grade.

Ben: B. The MLS U22 Initiative signings are all promising players, and we’re probably going to find out how promising Iago is much sooner rather than later. But thus far, aside from the signings of Braian Ojeda and Dorsey, the strategy has been to go with promising players over proven ones. That’s not to say the three young Brazilians won’t turn out to be great signings, but it’s hard to grade unknown quantities highly. This grade would be lower if not for the Dorsey signing, but his arrival helps shore up a defense that’s very shaky on paper without Jansson. No experienced striker signing hurts a lot, but that’s the way it goes.

Joshua: I went with a B-. With the club reshaping the roster after a disappointing end to last season, it was tough to see Gallese, Thorhallsson, Schlegel, and Freeman leave. Still, we get some new additions like Braian Ojeda, Luis Otavio, and Iago, who should get fans excited, plus the return of veterans Martin Ojeda and captain Jansson under new contracts. My concern remains depth and experience, especially on the back line, with Jansson being sidelined due to a foot injury to start the season. The Lions conceded 51 goals in the league last season.

Marcus: I’d give it a C. The center back and striker positions remain far too shallow for my liking and the club lost versatile players like Smith and Thorhallsson, who can help solve roster problems as they pop up. The front office still made some good business decisions though, selling Luis Muriel and Schlegel while investing in young players with upside.

Sean: It’s been a disappointing off-season for Orlando City. It lost key defensive players in Freeman and Araujo on a team that was already eighth in goals conceded with 51. They also didn’t improve in the attack by bringing in a proven striker. There are now more questions than there were last year.

Matt: I’d give it a capital D!  Far too many decent quality outgoings, some young incoming question marks, and no replacement for an attacking DP they should have been planning to replace, in my opinion. Oscar Pareja has made a lot out of what he’s been given, and Orlando does have some quality guys, but the team has been punching above its budget and that’s not usually sustainable. Look to the immediate north and south; that’s what ambition looks like. I really hated saying that.

Andrew: Hopefully the grades that I issue for the season opener on Saturday night will be better than this, but I am giving the Orlando City off-season a B-. In the short term, I think the team is going to struggle, especially with preventing goals, but the Lions signed three new MLS U22 Initiative players who have potential to be solid starters, and they picked up an MLS quality defensive midfielder and right back as well, so it was not all bad. The big issue is that there was no signing who will clearly be better at his position than the player who started there in 2025, and that is not ideal considering the 2025 team finished in ninth place in the Eastern Conference and went out with a whimper in the playoffs.

Don: C+ with ability to go up — There’s a DP spot to fill, but the biggest disappointment is the lack of experienced depth. The last minute addition of Dorsey saves this off-season from being a complete question mark.

My Take: I’m going to say a C- and that’s not necessarily all Moreira’s fault. He couldn’t have predicted Coronel sneaking off to Brazil and had to spend more time finding a goalkeeper than he’d planned. The Muriel move came late in the off-season, so it was going to be tough to replace that DP slot in the time left. I also feel (though I have no proof) that probably too much time was spent trying to convince Freeman to stay, because I don’t think Smith and Thorhallsson both would have departed otherwise. Moreira also had to reload the MLS U22 Initiative slots. He had a ton to do. But what I keep coming back to is that this team seems to have less depth than last year, will rely more heavily on unproven players, and doesn’t appear to have improved at any starting position.

Image of Alex Freeman dribbling the ball against FC Cincinnati.
Alex Freeman was a unicorn the Lions just weren’t able to keep around for another year.

Which of the three Brazilian MLS U22 Initiative players will have the biggest impact on the 2026 season?

Ben: Iago. Despite a shaky outing in the final preseason game, I think he’s the one that is most ready to contribute, and with Jansson possibly on the shelf until May-ish, he’s going to have the most opportunities to contribute immediately. I think he’ll do admirably, and I see him and David Brekalo duking it out for the right to start next to the captain once he makes his return from injury.

Joshua: Tiago will have the biggest impact on Orlando this season. He is versatile and could play a key role in bolstering the attack, either on the wing or up top. He did well at Bahia last season, will be behind McGuire, and will need time to adapt his game. Still, Tiago can be a threat 1-v-1 on the attack and certainly has the potential to make an immediate impact for the Lions off the bench or step up if McGuire or Tyrese Spicer miss any time due to injuries.

Marcus: Tiago intrigues me the most. Orlando spent big to bring him in and the opportunity is there for him to get some action in this offense. Ivan Angulo struggled to score last year, there’s not much depth up top, and the offense itself can generate some great chances for a guy with his speed.

Sean: I think Tiago has the best opportunity to have the biggest impact of the three Brazilians. Iago will start until Jansson returns, but he’ll then be back on the bench. Meanwhile, the club doesn’t have a forward who has been productive recently. That’s where Tiago can make his impact.

Matt: Tough question, of course, but overall I’d have to say Tiago just based on position. The defense is likely to be leaky at least to start, so the attack may make or break Orlando until it gets more reinforcements and/or the back line gells and gets the captain back. If Tiago can blend with the rest of the attacking unit quickly, he stands to make a big difference.

Andrew: I choose the player with a name ending in iago. All right, fine, if forced to choose between Iago and Tiago, I will take Tiago, who I think is going to slot right into the minutes that used to go to Ramiro Enrique and be similarly productive. Iago is going to play a lot this year, and if he plays well, he may even push Brekalo back out to compete for the starting left back role, but I believe Tiago is going to contribute a lot to the Orlando City offense and have a slightly bigger impact on the season than Iago, and a much bigger impact than Otávio, who plays at a position that is much deeper with experienced MLS players. I am high on all three players though, and think that they will all contribute at the MLS level this season. 

Don: Iago has the most international experience and I think will come into his own once he has time with the team.

Dave: Pareja has stated that Otavio will be brought along slowly. Tiago will get minutes but will be competing against McGuire. That leaves Iago as my pick. With Jansson out, the center back will be forced to adapt quickly, and I think he will.

My Take: I’m going to say Iago, simply because I feel like the defense is razor thin. He’ll start until at least Jansson’s return, and Brekalo has sustained some knocks in his two years with the club. He’ll get the minutes to make an impact. I don’t think Otavio will. Tiago will get minutes, but I think he may need a season to get his bearings, like Enrique did (four goals in 30 games his first season in MLS).

Image of Orlando City's starting lineup prior to a preseason match vs. Colorado.
Iago and Tiago are the popular picks to make the biggest impact out of the MLS U22 Initiative signings.

How should Ricardo Moreira use the club’s open Designated Player slot?

Joshua: With the 2026 FIFA World Cup quickly approaching this summer, Moreira should use that third Designated Player spot on a forward. Orlando’s top goal scorer from last season was midfielder Martin Ojeda, with 16 goals, but finding an attacking player to help the Lions make a late push to make the MLS playoffs this season will be crucial.

Marcus: It’s a tough question. Finding a Designated Player to be a center forward is difficult and Duncan McGuire’s presence can make playing time awkward. I think you still have to roll the dice there though. The potential impact of adding a player like Kevin Denkey to the mix is just too valuable to ignore.

Sean: Designated Player spots should be in positions where they can make a big impact. I think that means Moreira should be looking for a striker. Martin Ojeda is still the team’s number 10, and there isn’t a striker who puts fear into the opponent. Someone who can score 15-20 goals would be a big addition.

Matt: Striker is the role of greatest need, in my opinion. Ideally, someone who can also act as a false 9 and No. 10 if needed. I like McGuire and hope he can stay healthy and reproduce his best days, but it’s too important to leave it at that. The other attacking roles are covered with left wing being the biggest question mark. I think Spicer has looked pretty good though, and Angulo’s speed is useful, if not his touch.

Andrew: Moreira should target an elite left wing with the third DP spot, preferably a right-footed player who can cut back inside and unleash thunder à la Marco Pašalić, but who is also comfortable as a creator and could occasionally switch with Martín Ojeda and play in a more central role. Not a major ask, just find a player who can do all of that at a high level for at least 80 minutes per game and who wants to play in MLS at this point in their career.

Don: It’s usually not efficient to use a DP slot on defense, even if that is the biggest hole on the roster. I’m going to say we need to see more of Spicer before calling left wing a weakness, so let’s go with striker.

Dave: Without question, Orlando City needs to bring in a top quality striker. This is nothing against McGuire or Thiago, but the Lions need more firepower. Designated Player slots are best used on attacking midfielders and strikers. Orlando is set at the former.

Ben: Striker. Let’s not overcomplicate things here. I like McGuire quite a lot, but he struggled with some injury issues last year, and while I think he can absolutely be a double-digit goal scorer in this league, why not have two double-digit goal scorers? High powered attackers are what help teams be successful in this league, and with Orlando competing in the U.S. Open Cup and Leagues Cup this year, the team is going to need more than just McGuire if it wants to rebound from last year, even if he gets back to scoring 10+ goals.

My Take: This team needs to take a home run swing. I could have gotten behind the Richarlison rumor, and I don’t dare dream that Robert Lewandowski was ever seriously on the table, but what Orlando really lacks is a man up top who not only scores goals in every way imaginable, but also creates them for others. It’s not easy to find the next Hany Mukhtar, Anders Dreyer, Evander, or Denis Bouanga, but that’s the job in today’s MLS. Or find the next Son Heung-min or Thomas Muller — a European star with more tread on the tires who is looking for a new challenge. This team got it done with Kaká and Nani, so there’s no reason it can’t do it again.

Martin Ojeda needs a proven goal scorer to work off of when the Lions fill the third DP slot.

What is your boldest prediction for the 2026 Lions? Make it spicy!

Marcus: Martin Ojeda will win MVP. This mostly hinges on his teammates being able to take some of the heat off of him while converting chances he creates for them, but I think it will happen so long as the Lions get more out of the left wing and bring in a quality attacker this summer. Good service by Dorsey, who had six assists with an anemic Houston offense last year, could be the key to Ojeda scoring more in 2026.

Sean: Last year, I predicted Ivan Angulo would score on a breakaway. That obviously never materialized, but I’m going to stick with him and say Angulo will become one of the top right backs in the league this year. There’s nothing to indicate that’s the case, and Pareja even said his current role is temporary. But I think the club won’t find a replacement, keep Angulo in the position, and he’ll flourish. [Editor’s note: This was turned in prior to the Dorsey signing, but we’re sticking with it because it would be tough to be bolder or spicier than this!]

Matt: Pareja has his hands full this season, but he’s a pragmatist and tends to deal with bad situations pretty well. I suspect we may see some version of ugly defensive and counterattacking football this season. Not that that’s new for this team, but I dont think it will work as well as it has in the past, given the roster turnover. Now the spicy bold part! The summer transfer sees a DP that rides into town and saves the day! I hated saying that too.

Andrew: I predict that Javier Otero will supplant Crépeau as Orlando City’s starting goalkeeper, and he will take over as the starter by the midway point of the MLS season. This may not be as spicy as any prediction involving Tyrese (Spicer, or, for that matter, Gibson), but I think it is a move that the coaching staff should make, as Otero has the ability to follow in Gallese’s gloves and be the starting goalkeeper for years to come. 

Don: Spiciest would be that Lionel Messi steps foot on the Inter&Co Stadium field this season, but I’ll go with the Orlando City player with the most goals at the end of the season is currently not on the roster.

Dave: Orlando City shocks everyone by taking both regular-season matches from Inter Miami again. Doing so makes Don Garber quit and Messi decides to retire. World peace is achieved.

Ben: Iago scores five goals as a center back, giving Orlando a true consistent aerial threat from set pieces that the club has lacked for much of its MLS existence. 

Joshua: My bold prediction is Martin Ojeda will be Orlando City’s top goal scorer again this season with 22 goals and break former Lion Cyle Larin’s single-season club scoring record in the regular season.

My Take: Moreira makes good on his “promise” to The Mane Land PawedCast and signs Antoine Griezmann from Atletico Madrid as a Designated Player in the summer window. It’s time.

Another roundtable, another bold prediction involving Ivan Angulo.

Where will Orlando City finish in the Eastern Conference based on starting the season with the current roster?

Don: The Eastern Conference is tough. The Jansson injury will cause too many defensive lapses to let the offense carry the team alone. It will all hinge on how quickly Iago rounds into form. Playoff bound but it could be a play-in spot.

Dave: I’m going to say this roster finishes 10th, just outside of making the playoffs as it is currently constructed. Pareja will be able to have this team play better than the stats show, but unless there are changes, it’s going to be a long and difficult season.

Ben: Sixth. The acquisition of Dorsey makes me feel better about the defense, but not having Jansson for the first few months of the season, combined with very thin CB depth, hurts, as does not having any proven striker outside of McGuire. Tiago has played there during preseason, but he’s nominally a winger. Plus, plenty of other teams in the Eastern Conference got better on paper. That said, I think the roster has talent, as well as some promising pieces that could push the club higher if they hit the ground running and contribute well. At the end of the day, get another experienced center back in the door, sign a DP striker, and I think the team will climb a few additional places.  

Joshua: Orlando City will finish seventh in the Eastern Conference and make the MLS playoffs.

Marcus: I’ll be an optimist and say fourth. There are some loaded offenses and teams on the rise in the Eastern Conference but I think the Lions are flying a bit under the radar. Last year was disappointing, but Orlando was one of the best teams in the league over some stretches. Consistency will be key.

Sean: I think Orlando City will once again finish ninth. The problems the Lions had last year still exist, and they haven’t improved anywhere else. However, I don’t think any other teams have improved enough to knock them out of a wild card spot.

Matt: I’m going to go roughly middle of the table, say in the 7-10 range. You guessed it! I hated saying that three…

Andrew: Last season I was a little overzealous with my positivity, so I am going to go ahead and rein that in a little bit this year and predict that this year’s team continues its streak of making the playoffs, but finishes in sixth place and will likely not have home-field advantage at any point in the playoffs. Speaking of reins, I hope they throw them out the window when they start negotiating to sign that third DP, because if they do that, I am willing to go back to the well again and say they can compete to win the Eastern Conference. But with the current roster as is I think at best they can finish fourth and more likely will be toward the bottom of the playoff spots.

My Take: I love the optimism of my colleagues, but I don’t share it. While I’d never bet against Pareja, I don’t like the roster as it stands. Two center backs going down would be catastrophic. I’m not sure Tahir Reid-Brown is ready to step into MLS yet, so Adrian Marin seems to be the left back position group. I love the central midfield, but the attack has depth issues, it remains to be seen if Spicer can steal the left wing spot from Angulo and produce consistently, and I’m not really sure who is backing up Pasalic. McGuire must return to form, and Tiago…is he ready for this level? I think the roster as it stands looks like a ninth-place or 10th-place team in the Eastern Conference. I expect the roster to evolve though, and I’ll predict a seventh-place finish, with a ceiling of fifth.


If you made it to the end of this roundtable discussion, wow. Good job! It was a long one. But, hopefully there is a lot here to discuss.

Let us know in the comments where you agree and disagree with us, and give us your own bold predictions.

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PawedCast Episode 515: Orlando City Transfers, Preseason Schedule, OCB Signings, and More

We’re back to discuss Orlando City’s transfer news and rumors, OCB roster additions, and the preseason schedule.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City has gathered for preseason camp ahead of the 2026 season, and we’re still here to talk about it. How long that continues to be the case may unknown at this point, but we’re trending in the right direction, so if that continues, you’re stuck with us for a while longer.

The Lions have had various comings and goings since our last show, and we discuss the movement in and out of the roster. We thought Carlos Coronel was going to be the new Orlando City starter in goal, but he fled to Brazil, so we welcome Canadian international Maxime Crepeau to the City Beautiful. It’s not as splashy an addition, but it could be just as effective a roster move if he can regain his form from his Vancouver and LAFC days.

We also discussed the additions of Tiago, Luis Otavio, and Braian Ojeda. On the other hand, departures took place as well, such as Nico Rodriguez being loaned to Atletico Nacional and the reports that Luis Muriel may be finalizing a deal to move on. We chatted about what those moves mean in the grand scheme of things. Kyle Smith went home and we are glad he’s still playing but sad to see him in another team’s uniform.

The preseason schedule was a bit underwhelming, but we ran through it quickly.

Our mailbagbox was a little light, and it proved to us how little we know about the Polish national team. Remember, if there’s anything — and we do mean anything — you want us to address on the show, just ask us by tweeting it to us at @TheManeLand with the hashtag #AskTMLPC, or hitting us up on Bluesky Social with that same hashtag.

Finally, we talked a bit about the recent moves OCB has made, including the addition of a Brazilian striker. Former OCB forward Shak Mohammed is off to Nashville, while OCB/OCSC left wing Yutaro Tsukada showed up to preseason camp with a wedding ring. Congrats to Yutaro!

Note: we are now in our off-season podcast schedule, which is guaranteed to give you at least one episode per month but we will only be weekly if/when news warrants it. We’ll also return for at least one more show to say goodbye if things don’t work out for us to continue, but we are hoping it doesn’t come to that!

Be sure to rate and review our show wherever you get your podcasts. Remember, we’ll read any five-star reviews we get on Apple Podcasts on the next show.

If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.


Here’s how No. 515 went down:

0:15 – An update on our staffing crisis is more hopeful than the last one, and we go through the various arrivals and departures.

30:16 – The mailbagbox seeks help for Orlando City from Poland and wants to know which position we’d least like to see the club make a Designated Player signing.

41:52 – OCB news, a new home for Shak, and Tsukada ties the knot.

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A Few Words About the Future of The Mane Land

TML needs help to continue bringing you coverage of Orlando City, the Orlando Pride, OCB, and all things soccer related in the City Beautiful.

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For the last 11 years, The Mane Land has worked hard to provide daily content telling the story of Orlando City SC, the Orlando Pride, OCB, and any other soccer-related events we can get to in the Central Florida area. We love doing that, but we’re at a critical stage in being able to do so. Staff has been difficult to replace in recent years, and we’ve come to a point where some of us have not only been stretched to an unsustainable limit, but we’ve been going at that rate for multiple years without a break.

To that point, TML is now at a critical juncture where we must have more contributors who can cover live events in order to survive in our current format (and possibly at all). For the past few years, we have had only two primary game night writers covering three teams, and we are unable to continue at that pace, regardless of how much we enjoy doing it.

To continue as an entity, we’re going to need anywhere from two to four new contributors who can pitch in with game-night coverage of Orlando City/Orlando Pride matches. Additionally, another copy editor is essential, while two more would be preferred.

We’d like to continue into 2026, but if we can’t get the additional help we need, the current plan is to shut down at the end of the 2025 calendar year. The minimum we need to carry on would be two new live event writers and a copy editor.

What does this mean? Well, if you’ve ever thought it would be cool to cover soccer matches (it is) or thought about joining us, now is the time to volunteer. If you enjoy soccer and talking about this club with your friends, you might be perfect for our team, because if you can talk about soccer, you can probably write about it as well. Writing is just talking on a screen with your fingers, after all.

To get started, please write to us at themaneland@gmail.com and let us know how you’d like to contribute — writing, editing, etc.

It is important to note that we do this out of a love for the beautiful game and these positions are on a voluntary basis. However, if freed from the shackles of such an overwhelming schedule, my goal is to spend more time creating strategic partnerships and promoting our membership platform that could combine to bring in revenue that would go toward compensating staff writers. Additionally, some of our staff members have gone on to more financially rewarding opportunities as a result of their time with us. You never know what this experience will lead to. Like anything else in life, you’re likely to get out of it what you put in.

The good news is that we have already reached out to our Founders and our Buy Me a Coffee subscribers about this subject, and several have shown an interest in helping, so we are in the process of exploring those potential contributors at the moment.

We Are Currently Seeking:

  • Match writers – You don’t need a degree in journalism or English to write for us. If you like to talk about soccer, you can probably write about it as well. Staff writers contribute regularly to our game coverage, which could be in the form of recaps, player grades pieces, five takeaways posts, etc. We have a need for this on both the Orlando City and Pride sides, and you can do both if you want. If you’re not local to the Orlando area, you can cover road matches via the broadcast/stream.
  • Editors – Can you spot a subject/verb disagreement from a mile away? An editor position may be for you! How often do you get to correct people without anyone shaming you for it? This position will edit copy for submitted stories, make headlines punchier and more SEO-friendly, and ensure the story has a properly cropped/centered photo that helps tell the story. Typically you’ll only be on “desk duty” one or two evenings per week when it fits your schedule. You may also write stories if you wish!

About TML

Our little blog became an idea and then an independent WordPress site in late September of 2014, and went live on SBNation in December of that year. When SBNation stopped funding nearly all of its MLS blogs a few years ago, we went independent again, and we’ve long been the only outlet providing daily coverage of Orlando City’s teams. Even the club doesn’t post new content to its website every day!


FAQ

Why shutter the site at the end of December? Why do you need help now when the season doesn’t start for a couple of months?

Preparing to cover three teams requires advance planning. Each year, we put together a publication schedule to ensure all our bases are covered. This includes what will run (a placeholder or sometimes the specific piece) on every day of the year, which obviously doesn’t take into account breaking news or extra features that people want to do. Setting up this publication schedule also includes noting when major soccer events are coming, known USMNT/USWNT scheduled matches, MLS and NWSL deadlines, player birthdays, important milestones and anniversaries, and more. We also put together volunteer sign-up sheets for grades and takeaways posts. That setup work is all for naught if we don’t have the bodies to physically cover the team when the season starts. Also, it’s easier to pull the plug on our LLC at the end of a calendar year. None of us want to stop, but we have to be realistic about being able to continue covering the team as we have.

Why not just scale back and cover what you can? Do you have to cover every game?

I don’t have a good answer for this other than I would not feel right about putting my name on a product I don’t believe in. I don’t ever want our audience to have to guess whether or not they’re getting a game recap or any follow-up analysis from a given match. In my opinion, we have never had the personnel to fully provide what I envision. For example, I want to add more video content, player grades and recaps for the Pride games, and to bring back weekend Lion Links and OCB match previews. And we should have a lot more features and analysis pieces! In short, we’re already doing the bare minimum that I’m comfortable with. And, I have to be honest: if there was a game coming up with no one to cover it, knowing me, I’d probably just do it myself, and I already know I can’t continue the pace of the past few years. I have to save me from myself sometimes.

Could The Mane Land continue in a different form?

I have toyed with the idea of turning TML into a newsletter. This might be a daily that includes a Lion Links-type section and opinion/analysis of club news. It would not include match coverage or any kind of regular news. I almost pivoted to that when SBNation stopped funding us, but we decided to make a go of it as an independent outlet. The problem with the newsletter style is that I can’t do it daily every single day or it would be no different than the situation I’m in, so some help would still be needed. Some of that could come from the current TML staff, but I’m not sure all of it could, and the newsletter format is not for everyone, so we’d be leaving part of our audience behind. I’m not sure it’s the way to go.

Is new management or investment needed?

Possibly. I am willing to sell the name and logo and turn over all our passwords for someone else to take over the operations, which would free up a considerable amount of my time. I’m even willing to continue on as a writing and editing contributor, because I love covering the club. Some of the other staff might as well. But I would not be interested in covering every single match. I’m not a kid anymore, and I have a regular job, a family, and other side gigs that require my attention.

Will you still do the podcasts if the site shuts down?

No. I think if we decide to shut down, it will be across the board. I much prefer our written content, and that’s the reason I started our outlet to begin with. I feel the podcasts complement our coverage and give us more of an opinion platform and a way to discuss matches in a deeper, richer way, but I’m not interested in doing only the podcasts. That said, others on our staff might want to continue and I’m OK with that.


Contact us at themaneland@gmail.com today to get started as a new contributor!

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