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Why We Shouldn’t Freak Out About Dom Dwyer’s Miss on Saturday

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Dom Dwyer has understandably been the subject of many scalding hot takes after his miss on Saturday. Ruan put the ball on a platter for him six minutes after he was introduced off the bench at New York City FC and the Orlando City striker botched what many have called “the easiest chance he’ll have all year.”

Personally, I hope Dwyer has some easier chances still to come in 2019 as Orlando’s newer players learn more about the diminutive forward and give him even better quality service, but I’ll not argue against Saturday’s chance being the sitterest of sitters. Many have criticized Dwyer’s finishing this season and rightfully so, as he’s not been as sharp to start the season as we might expect, considering the quality of chances. It’s perfectly fine to be mad or even #MadOnline about Dwyer’s miss. It’s possible he’s let it go by now himself, but no doubt he was kicking himself for it on Saturday.

But the Cuckfield, England native has always been a streaky player and it’s something that our Sporting Kansas City brethren talked about at the time Orlando City acquired him via trade in 2017.

Dom is a streaky player and while he scored the second-most goals of anyone in club history, he could have and really should have had many more. Some fans have been screaming for years now that Dwyer is overrated, but they are crazy. 

Dom has always been this way and it’s revisionist history to think otherwise. He misses maddeningly simple-looking chances, but he does provide offense.

Just because Dwyer has been streaky at finishing, it doesn’t mean he hasn’t been a productive contributor. In fact, as difficult as it was for me to believe when crunching the numbers, he’s actually been contributing at a higher rate than is typical throughout his career, although nine games is admittedly a small sample size.

For all the hand wringing by fans, Dwyer has been involved in five goals in nine games, scoring three and setting up two others. He’s only finished with more than his current tally of two assists on the season twice in his career. He assisted on five goals in 2017 — four of those coming after he was traded from Sporting Kansas City to Orlando City — and three in 2016. A striker involved in an average of a goal every other game is generally considered good in MLS. Maybe not Zlatan-level or Carlos Vela-level, but generally within what one might expect. (If you’re looking for Carlos Vela-level, you’ll have to convince Orlando City to go out and get Vela.)

But let’s look deeper to see if this is “not the same Dwyer” that was producing at SKC.

So far in 2019, Dwyer is scoring or assisting on a goal for every 104.8 minutes he’s on the pitch. His previous best goals + assists rate was once every 118.4 minutes in 2014. That season, Dwyer scored a career-high 22 goals with one assist in 33 appearances (31 starts) for a defending MLS champion Sporting side that went 14-13-7 in the Eastern (yes, Eastern) Conference. The Sporks made the playoffs that year but were knocked out by the Red Bulls in the first round. Dwyer scored 22 of SKC’s 48 total goals that year.

Here’s how Dwyer has done through the years:

  • 2019 (So far): Goal or assist every 104.8 minutes in nine games (four starts).
  • 2018: Goal or assist every 172.6 minutes in 26 games (25 starts).
  • 2017 (Orlando only): Goal or assist every 121.9 minutes in 12 games (11 starts).
  • 2017 (Overall): Goal or assist every 160.4 minutes in 27 games (25 starts).
  • 2016: Goal or assist every 148.6 minutes in 33 games (31 starts).
  • 2015: Goal or assist every 181.9 minutes in 30 games (28 starts).
  • 2014: Goal or assist every 118.4 minutes in 33 games (31 starts).
  • 2013: Goal or assist every 168.5 minutes in 16 games (7 starts).
  • 2012: No goals or assists in four minutes of play in one game (subbed on).

In looking at 2019 Dom vs. Doms from other years, the current model is not producing fewer goals + assists per minutes played. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. Admittedly this review doesn’t take into account advanced metrics like expected goals, but it’s still telling. After all, if he’s producing at a higher rate in terms of goals + assists per minutes but he’s not finishing as many expected goals as he should be, that should indicate he’s at least getting into position more often for an expected goal than ever before. I’ll leave the xG breakdown for another day, as this piece is already long.

Add in the fact that most of Dwyer’s previous top seasons have come while playing on a solid playoff team in Kansas City, meaning he probably had a better overall surrounding cast, and this year’s numbers are more surprising. But there is another factor that I haven’t yet addressed.

Dwyer has been a starting striker throughout his career since 2014. He’s made a few substitute appearances but the high mark for that came way back in 2013, when he was breaking into the league. That year, he was used as a sub nine times in 16 matches. Since then, Dwyer has subbed on no more than twice in any season until this year. He was a sub only once in 2018 and just twice in 2017 (once for Orlando, once for SKC), 2016, 2015, and 2014.

Still only age 28, one wouldn’t think Dwyer to be over the hill quite yet. However, he has had some nagging injuries in recent seasons, so it’s logical that James O’Connor would like to manage his minutes to keep him fresh throughout the season.

That said, the numbers show a disparity when Dwyer starts versus when he comes off the bench.

Because he hasn’t been used as a sub much throughout his career, it’s difficult to draw many conclusions from previous seasons. Subbing on only once or twice a year doesn’t reveal many patterns. The only two seasons in which he had a nearly 50/50 split of starts to substitute appearances have been 2013 and (so far) 2019.

It’s difficult to glean much from 2013, because his first nine appearances of that year were off the bench and he played fewer than 10 minutes in four of those as he was still establishing himself in the league. Still, he managed only one goal and no assists in those nine games, firing six shots but getting only one on target — his goal against the New York Red Bulls on Aug. 3, 2013. His first start of that season produced a Dwyer assist and one shot (on target) against the Colorado Rapids. After not seeing the field against Columbus, Dwyer started SKC’s last six games, scoring a goal and adding an assist while taking 21 shots (five on frame).

In 2019 it’s been easier to track his production as a starter versus as a sub. He’s no longer a young player breaking into the side. How he’s gotten his appearances has been more consistent and he’s not had a long streak of starts or sub appearances. With a more even distribution of his appearances, some patterns have emerged early this season.

Dwyer has appeared in nine games, with four starts and five games as a substitute. In his four starts, Dom has played 342 minutes, scoring two goals, firing 20 shots (eight on target) and committing six fouls. As a sub, Dwyer has played 182 minutes, producing one goal and two assists, firing five shots (officially four, but somehow the scorer didn’t give him one on Saturday at NYCFC, so I had to add it for the purposes of this piece) with just two on target. He’s committed 10 fouls as a sub.

Breaking down these numbers further, Dwyer produces a goal every 171 minutes as a starter and also a goal or assist every 171 minutes as a starter. As a sub, Dwyer is producing a goal every 182 minutes but there is a slight uptick in goals + assists, with one or the other produced every 60.7 minutes. As for chances, Dwyer averages a shot every 17.1 minutes when starting in 2019 as opposed to a shot every 36.4 minutes off the bench. He shoots on frame once every 42.8 minutes as a starter compared to once every 91 (!) minutes off the bench. Finally, Dwyer commits a foul about once every 57 minutes when starting while being whistled once every 18.2 minutes as a substitute.

With his two assists in 2019 providing a bit of an outlier in terms of his starting versus bench production, Dwyer seems more comfortable as a starter than as a sub. His goals, shots, and shots on target come more frequently when he starts the game and he doesn’t foul at nearly so high a rate as he does when he’s brought on later in the game.

Again, small sample size, but his numbers so far indicate he’s sharper when he’s on the field at kickoff rather than on the bench, as he’s cleaner with challenges and doesn’t go as long between shots or shots on target. Given the data available, O’Connor might be wise to find time in the second halves of games to get Dwyer rest rather than subbing him on later. The logic behind putting a quick, pesky Dwyer on against a fatigued back line is unassailable. It makes so much sense you’d need to be insane not to try it. But if Dwyer is going to find his rhythm and get hot again, it might be wiser to start him, because his numbers seem to indicate a higher comfort level in that role.

That said, maybe if O’Connor sticks with the current plan, Dwyer will adjust to his more varied role over time. As I’ve said, repeatedly, it’s early.

As for Dwyer’s miss Saturday, it happens in soccer. This weekend alone, Christian Ramirez of LAFC also missed a would-be game-winner on a chance where it was harder to miss the empty net than hit it.

But even those among the most prolific scorers in the game’s history can lack the right touch at the crucial moment.

Benching Dwyer won’t get him back into top form and the options behind him are limited to Tesho Akindele — who has a career high of seven goals back in 2014 — rookies Santiago Patino or Benji Michel, or someone who isn’t really a striker. So right now Dwyer is the best option for Orlando City and it’s probably best for all involved that he continues to get starts for now in order to try to round himself back into top form. The club can always re-evaluate the striker position in the lead-up to the summer window if things don’t change.

Podcasts

PawedCast Episode 506: Cincinnati Rewind, OCB-Carolina Core, Columbus Preview, and More

The Lions claimed a late draw at Cincy and now host Columbus while OCB’s playoff hopes hang by a thread.

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Image of Alex Freeman celebrating after scoring the tying goal at Cincinnati.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Jeremy Reper

Orlando City left it late again. Tyrese Spicer reprised his role from the Nashville game by providing the assist for a goal late in stoppage time, but this time it was a different goal scorer and a road draw instead of a home win. Alex Freeman played great against FC Cincinnati, so it was fitting that he literally pulled a point out of thin air on a Sunday night that saw the Lions squander numerous good opportunities to score while allowing the hosts only one Kevin Denkey strike.

We look back at the key moments, players, and plays of a critical road match, check our score predictions, and make our selections for Man of the Match, splitting the vote

This week’s mailbagbox asked us a pair of trivia questions and added an individual question for each host. Remember, if there’s anything — and we do mean anything — you want us to address on the show, just ask us by tweeting it to us at @TheManeLand with the hashtag #AskTMLPC, or hitting us up on Bluesky Social with that same hashtag.

OCB got two points at Carolina Core FC when it needed three, but it did enough to stay alive in the postseason race but there is no margin for error. The Young Lions fell behind by two goals, battled back to get level, conceded again, and once again equalized on the road. Carlos Mercado then helped his team win the penalty shootout on his birthday to claim the extra point. OCB must beat FC Cincinnati 2 on Sunday at home and get help to reach the postseason.

Finally, Orlando City returns home with another game against a good team from the Buckeye State, as the Columbus Crew visits Inter&Co Stadium on Saturday. Whether Diego Rossi plays or not, the Crew are always a difficult opponent. We break down the series history, look at the battle ahead, provide our key matchups, and make our predictions for the final score.

Be sure to rate and review our show wherever you get your podcasts. Remember, we’ll read any five-star reviews we get on Apple Podcasts on the next show.

If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.


Here’s how No. 506 went down:

0:15 – Orlando City didn’t seem to want to put the ball in the net, but maybe that’s because it wasn’t yet the death of stoppage time. Earlier goals are OK too, guys!

27:55 – The mailbagbox offers trivia, but no prizes if we get them right.

39:11 – OCB was listening to Meat Loaf and thinking two out of three ain’t bad, and the senior Lions prepare for Columbus.

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PawedCast Episode 502: Galaxy Rewind, Ramiro Enrique Transfer News, OCB Defeats Crown Legacy, and More

Lions leave Leagues Cup empty handed, Ramiro Enrique could be on the move soon, OCB gets a vital win, and more

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Image of Oscar Pareja giving his team directions.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

I couldn’t tell you why this show is nearly an hour other than the fact that we are verbose. Orlando City crashed out of Leagues Cup with back-to-back losses in games that had a Concacaf Champions Cup berth on the line. The Lions did almost nothing in the first half against the LA Galaxy on the road, and threw Martin Ojeda’s second-half equalizer away just seven minutes after he scored it with a horrendous turnover in their defensive third.

We discuss Orlando City’s 2-1 road loss, which featured one of Pedro Gallese’s best-ever saves as a Lion, although it ultimately didn’t matter much, looked back at our score predictions, and made our selections for Man of the Match.

We also discussed Seattle’s 3-0 win over Inter Miami in the final and the shenanigans that the Herons pulled after losing.

Ramiro Enrique was not in uniform Sunday night in the wake of reports that he’s about to be sold for a reported $3 million to a Saudi team. Although the timing isn’t perfect, it would be a good return for the Argentine striker.

This week’s mailbagbox asked about ice cream, donuts, Carlos Mercado vs. Javier Otero, and more. Remember, if there’s anything — and we do mean anything — you want us to address on the show, just ask us by tweeting it to us at @TheManeLand with the hashtag #AskTMLPC, or hitting us up on Bluesky Social with that same hashtag.

OCB picked up a much-needed three points with a home win over Crown Legacy at the death that nearly immediately became a draw at the even more death. Mercado was sensational in the match for the Young Lions and Thalles scored the timely goal to push the club over the playoff line for the time being. I nearly started to preview an OCB game that is more than a week ago, but the important thing is I stopped myself, otherwise the show would have been even longer.

The senior Lions are also off this week, so we’ll see you next week!

Be sure to rate and review our show wherever you get your podcasts. Remember, we’ll read any five-star reviews we get on Apple Podcasts on the next show.

If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.


Here’s how No. 502 went down:

0:15 – Orlando City looked to be following the same script as in the win at LA back in March, but then coughed up the ball in a dangerous spot to one of the Galaxy’s best scorers.

29:36 – The mailbagbox is trying to make us fat(ter).

46:38 – OCB has put together two consecutive late wins as the Young Lions try to get back into playoff contention after several rough weeks.

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Announcement: Change to The Mane Land’s Approach to Live Updates on Social Media

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Here at The Mane Land, we were able to build a rather sizable following on social media early in our growth. We quickly surpassed a thousand followers while we were still a free independent WordPress site with just a few contributors posting about one new story per day. This helped us get the attention of SBNation, which we eventually joined.

When we joined SBNation’s roster of blogs, we quickly rose up the ranks to one of the most followed MLS team-specific accounts on Facebook and Twitter (especially the latter). We always had great engagement on Twitter, with mixed results on Facebook.

With all of that said, we take the relationship with our social media followers seriously, because our readers have helped our growth on those channels (and vice versa), and we know who our friends are. We’ve met a lot of our Twitter followers in person over the years, and we value those times we’ve spent with you.

All of this serves to preface that we’ve decided to change some things up, although it’s nothing too radical. Starting Friday, March 28, TML will no longer be live tweeting matches on Twitter (sorry, I’m still never going to call it X, because that’s dumb). We will also be reducing our already dwindling presence there. I want to emphasize that we are not deleting our account. We will continue to post new stories to the artist formerly known as Twitter. But that’s about all we’ll be doing there. This week’s OCB game will be the last match for which we’ll provide live updates on Twitter.

We will be moving all of our live game coverage to our Bluesky Social account.

Please note: This move should in no way be construed as a political one. There are several factors at play, and while some of our writers may not share political alignment with Twitter’s owner, that is not why I’ve chosen this course — with the support of the TML staff. If this was a political choice, we’d simply delete the account and quit using the platform entirely.

Once upon a time, Twitter used to drive a decent-ish (but, if I’m being honest, never great) amount of engagement to our website, which we could see in our analytics. It was also a place where we could engage with our followers, exchanging thoughts on the club and its players, and occasionally arguing a little bit about those topics.

Before you could simply buy a blue checkmark, Vox Media assisted us in getting vetted by the former ownership, which helped legitimize us as a reliable outlet covering Orlando City SC. That too helped us grow our follower base, but it all went away when the current owner decided to overpay for the platform and tried to monetize it by letting anyone buy a blue checkmark, flooding the non-checkmarked accounts with ads. That was the start of when we began seeing Twitter become less useful as a marketing tool for TML and when it started driving a lot less traffic to our website and podcasts.

Most of our post engagement on Twitter has dried up because of people leaving (or spending less time on) the platform. More likes and retweets are coming from bot accounts than ever before. Typically, we have been seeing a high percentage of post likes coming from obvious bot accounts. And it’s just not a pleasant place to be. There are far too many ads, and most of the “ads” we see in our feed aren’t advertising any service or product. They seem to be individual tweets boosted by…I don’t know, some algorithm, or maybe the account’s owner is actually paying for things like this to be boosted. Most, but not all, of those “ads” are political in nature, and many of the political ones feature easily disprovable lies.

But sometimes it’s random stuff like this:

When every fourth or fifth post is something like the above (or often something worse), it’s just not an enjoyable user experience. We’re not going to give the world’s richest man more money just to cleanse our timeline of it and have the old Twitter experience back (that’s the entire point of “premium,” to get us to pay to go ad free). That’s as valid a choice for a business model as any, I guess, but it’s not one we’re interested in boosting just to get things to go back to how they were.

Between the drop in engagement, the rise of unchecked bot activity, and the weirdness and frequency of the “ads,” it’s a place we’d like to spend less time. Again, we aren’t leaving. We’ll continue to let people on Twitter know when new stories drop. That’s always been our basic approach to Facebook, where we’ve never received a whole lot of engagement.

Bluesky Social, on the other hand, has been quite enjoyable in all the same ways Twitter used to be. With less than a third of the followers that we have on Twitter, our replies, likes, and reposts have been much higher on average over the past year, than those same posts on Twitter. Our podcast listeners submit far more questions there than on Twitter (but you can still ask on Twitter and we’ll answer them on the show). The Bluesky interface is slightly more clunky on desktop than Twitter (desktop is an important part of how I provide live updates during games), but it feels pretty much like Twitter used to. I have been trying to post on both Twitter and Bluesky for OCSC games, but doing both is problematic and more than a little stressful. By limiting live updates to Bluesky, it’ll make things easier for those of us doing this in our spare time for no real financial gain. I’m not asking the staff to start Bluesky accounts, but some of our writers already have them.

Our ask of you on this subject is…nothing. If you’re not on Bluesky, and you decide you don’t want or need another social media account, that’s a valid choice. If you want to join us on Bluesky, we’d love to see you. Our posts about our stories will be (and have been for some time) identical on both platforms (and on Facebook). The only change will be that we (mainly I) will spend more time on Bluesky, less on Twitter, and our live game coverage will be on Bluesky. You can still @ us on Twitter if you like. We may just be a bit less responsive.

Things change, especially technology and social media. Some of you remember MySpace. Or even AOL. It’s entirely possible that a future Twitter with better control of bots and ads may one day be worth egaging with more often again. That’s another reason for us not to delete the account.

At The Mane Land, our main reason for existence continues to be that we love telling the stories of our favorite MLS, NWSL, and MLS NEXT Pro soccer teams. That won’t change — even if the way we promote those stories does from time to time.

Feel free to reach out with any comments or questions you have. And, as always, thank you for your support over the last 11 years.

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