Connect with us

Orlando City

Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. FC Cincinnati

Published

6 years ago

on

Another Friday is upon us, and after the 2-1 loss up in Seattle it couldn’t get here soon enough. To be fair to Orlando City, the team played better than I was expecting, especially given the heavy rotation in the squad, but now it’s time to put Wednesday in the rearview mirror and look ahead to Sunday.

This weekend sees Orlando City take on Major League Soccer’s newest club, as FC Cincinnati will come to Orlando City Stadium for the first clash between the two teams. In order to prepare I spoke to Bill Wolf of Cincinnati Soccer Talk and he was kind enough to give us a wealth of information about the league’s new kids on the block. I also answered his questions and you can read those over at their place.

One of the big stories in MLS recently was the firing of Alan Koch fairly early on in the season. His replacement, interim coach Yoann Damet, immediately notched a 2-1 over the Montreal Impact last week. Obviously there’s only one game to go off of, but what are your early impressions of this team under Damet?

Bill Wolf: As you say, it’s really early to make generalizations, but if we compare the players in the last seven games under Koch to the one game with Damet at the helm, there is an obvious energy and drive that was not present before. There has been a lot said by players in the last several weeks. Prior to the coaching change, there were many statements of support and belief in the team and each other. Noticeably absent was any belief or support in the coach. Since the coaching change, there have been many players talking about their respect for Coach Damet, and their belief in his plan. Implied, of course, is a contrast to their previous coach. The players gave a vote of no confidence to Koch and the front office listened. When you’ve lost the locker room, there really isn’t much that can be done. Alan Koch had said the players weren’t good enough. The players look like a team with something to prove now. On the pitch is a spark. You can see joy back in their game, and it’s much more enjoyable to watch. What will have to unfold is how sustainable that is. Was this a one-game bump? A three-game bump? Or is it the new normal?

Frankie Amaya was the number one overall pick in this year’s MLS SuperDraft. While he hasn’t played in a ton of the team’s game so far, how has he performed in the games in which he’s featured?

BW: Frankie has been a bright light in a rough start to the season. It took him awhile and several injuries to other teammates before he got a chance to play a few minutes in any game, but even in those early looks, it was obvious he was tenacious and gifted. He doesn’t have the size, but he doesn’t back down either. When he gives up the ball, he is hounding the player to turn it over. Just as he started to break into the 18 and get some minutes, he was loaned out to Orange County. At a time, when attacking options were scarce, it was an odd decision. Fortunately, the club recalled him quite quickly and we’ve seen his playing time continue to increase. 

Amaya’s style of play seems to fit Damet better. Under Koch, he was a wing. Amaya is quick, but his size means that a large player with a long stride will catch him. In a long ball and counter system, he wasn’t the most effective. Playing wing also meant dropping back and being prepared to defend when the outside back crashed forward. Amaya wants to go forward. Damet, slid him into the middle of the pitch as an attacking mid. Amaya is good with the ball at his feet. He is comfortable dribbling through traffic and his vision is top rate, creating opportunities with well-placed passes. With Victor Ulloa behind him, his job is more about causing turnovers high up the pitch and moving the ball forward. He likes to link up with other players, continuously moving off the ball to be available and looking to find the next opportunity to move the ball strategically.

He needs to shore up his first touch and get more fit to be able to last 90 minutes at the energy level he is bringing. If he had gotten more playing time to improve fitness and show his capabilities more, I’m confident he would have been selected for the U-20 World Cup. So, though I feel like the club failed him in that regard, they will absolutely benefit from that as well.

Speaking as a fan of a team that was a first-year expansion club not so very long ago, I know it can be difficult to build a team identity and establish a way that the club likes to play. So far, what would you say FCC’s on-field identity is — what is the team’s bread and butter?

BW: Again, it’s really too early to tell. Anything we saw under Alan Koch is clearly in the past. We’ve only seen a single game with Yoann Damet at the helm. Was the plan a reaction to the opponent? Will the team look and play differently against Orlando? Damet even made some comments that they’d have to evaluate what worked and what didn’t for this group of players, and they will make adjustments. I think their identity is still being developed a bit.

However, it is probably safe to say the Coach Damet has already made some changes that seem to reflect his vision for what he’d like to see out of the team. Under Alan Koch, we saw a lot of long balls out of the back, a bunker-and-counter style. The midfield was not heavily involved in buildup. Under Damet, the team is now building out of the back and working the ball through the midfield. Passes are short and simple with players continuously moving off the ball into available space. In the first 11 games of the season, the team averaged around 44% possession. They averaged around 400 passes per game, with 180 of those passes, on average, coming in the first half. Against Montreal, under Damet, the team had 55% possession. They had 401 passes in the first half, exceeding their past total game average. They finished the game with 571 passes.

Are there any injuries, suspensions, or call-ups that will keep players unavailable for selection and what is your projected starting lineup and score prediction?

BW: The only significant injury I’m aware of at this time is Allan Cruz. He took a hard knock at the end of the Montreal game and had to be removed from the field. It’s unclear whether he will be recovered for the game against Orlando. Kenny Saief appears to be back training and could likely step in for Cruz. We have no suspensions at this time — a couple of players, sitting on four yellows at this time, but no one who will miss Orlando on accumulation.

Projected starting lineup:

Last game, Yoann Damet rolled out a 4-3-3 formation, and I think, considering it worked, he’ll stick to that. The back line will remain the same with Spencer Richey in goal, Greg Garza, Kendall Waston, Justin Hoyte and Mathieu Deplagne making the back four. The midfield will also be the same, with Ulloa as the holding mid, and Leonardo Bertone and Amaya sitting ahead of him in a more attacking role. The front three will be Roland Lamah, Darren Mattocks and Saief. The only change from last week being Saief for Cruz.

Score prediction:

This is a big game for both teams. Cincinnati has an opportunity to leap Orlando in the standings and, depending on results, end up tied with the Red Bulls on points. Both teams have a game in hand over Cincinnati, but FCC needs some upward momentum having dropped significantly after their seven-game winless streak. Orlando has an opportunity to leap Red Bulls and put some distance from the bottom of the table. They are winless in the last three (now four) and will want to turn things around back home for this game.

Cincinnati opened the gates in the last game and scored two goals after being scoreless for literally hours upon hours of play. I think they are riding high on confidence and we’ll see some more goals. That said, the back line has been a little shaky under their new system and I expect another error to allow a goal against. I’ll predict an outcome of 2-1 in favor of the Orange and Blue.

A big thank you again to Bill for that wonderful insight into FC Cincinnati.

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

Orlando City

How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively

How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.

Published

16 hours ago

on

November 21, 2024

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

The purpose of this image is a table to show how Atlanta United lined up in 2024 (mostly in a 4-2-3-1 but also in one of six other formations).

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Table embedded as an image showing Orlando City doing best in goal differential in 12 games against three-man back lines, second best against four-man back lines, and having played once against a five-man back line (a 1-1 draw).

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy four defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus eight goal differential for the season.

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy three defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus three goal differential for the season.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

Continue Reading

Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?

Published

18 hours ago

on

November 21, 2024

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?

Beat Guzan

Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.

Cartagena is Essential

Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.

Overcome the Past

That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.

That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

Continue Reading

Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/21/24

Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.

Published

22 hours ago

on

November 21, 2024

By

Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship

There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.

Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year

NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.

Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year

Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.

2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled

The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach

FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.

Free Kicks

  • District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

Continue Reading

Trending