Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Philadelphia Union: Five Takeaways
Orlando City had a chance to make a statement Wednesday night against the Eastern Conference-leading Philadelphia Union. Not only were the Lions trying to win consecutive matches for the first time in 2019 after alternating league wins with losses, but a victory would also announce that James O’Connor’s bunch was truly progressing from a league bottom feeder to a legitimate threat for postseason play.
For 45 minutes, the Lions did make that statement. Orlando played well in the opening 10 minutes, looking eager to run the Union off the pitch. You could look at the period after Chris Mueller’s goal as a lull by the Lions or as the conference leaders responding to an early kick in the teeth, but either way, Orlando largely did what it had done on Saturday in Columbus: kept most of the danger out on the perimeter and relied on a strong central defensive pairing to clear away the crosses in hopes of springing a counter.
The game plan was fine but it all flew out the window just before the half when Robin Jansson was sent off and started a chain of events that led to a 3-1 home loss — the team’s third multi-goal loss of the season, with all of them coming at home.
Seeing Red
The most glaring takeaway is that Jansson’s sending-off ruined the game for Orlando, and the fans who braved awful weather on a midweek night. Fafa Picault’s pace was the catalyst and although the Swede gamely tried a desperation tackle — and did manage to touch the ball first — he didn’t knock it far enough off line to clearly deny a goal-scoring opportunity and his awkward position after the lunge resulted in scissoring down the speedy Philadelphia winger. I can’t argue the red card and won’t pardon the offense, but the alternative there is to allow a dangerous opportunity where the Union likely would have scored anyway. That’s an unfortunate result for a player who has largely settled down Orlando’s back line and has combined with Lamine Sané to finally create some stable play in the Lions’ central defense for the first time in the team’s MLS era.
Seeing More Red
There’s really no way to dispute Sacha Kljestan’s red card either. It was perhaps as desperate an attempt to win the ball as Jansson’s, but it was far more dangerous and infinitely less necessary. Unlike Jansson’s play, there was no immediate danger of conceding after the turnover in Kljestan’s case. I don’t believe the midfielder had any intent or malice on the play. I think he was just frustrated and desperate to win the ball back and made a horrible decision to make a flying lunge at it. Sacha is no spring chicken anymore, and perhaps he once would have closed the gap enough to win a ball in that fashion but he’s been logging a lot of minutes in recent weeks and age hasn’t been kind to him in the lost steps department. Fatigue may have played a role in both the decision he made and the lack of intended execution and O’Connor alluded to that in his post-game press conference. I expect he’ll receive an additional game or two suspension for his horror tackle on Jamiro Monteiro as his desperation lunge resulted in his studs finding a leg rather than a soccer ball.
Cash Money is Progressing
With goals in each of his last two matches, Mueller has not only achieved a new modest career high total of five, but he’s also shown that his body has adjusted to the rigors of Major League Soccer. Last season, Mueller had scored all three of his goals on the year (in consecutive games) by the end of April, and didn’t find the net for the final six months of the season.
“Yeah, I feel good,” Mueller responded to my question last night about him finding his groove. “I feel confident and I just want to keep helping the team any way I can. I want to get results, first and foremost, right? So the goals are nice, but first I want to win.”
Mueller was part of 10 total goals last season (three goals, seven assists) and he’s already contributed to eight in 2019 (five goals, three assists). Becoming a more consistent threat, as it not only eases the burden on Dom Dwyer, Nani, and Tesho Akindele, but it also forces opponents to recognize the danger he possesses, which can in turn open up distribution lanes for others to score more easily.
Welcome Home, Will
More and more of Will Johnson’s haters are coming around in 2019 and it was nearly impossible to look at his performance last night and see beyond the positives. Johnson ran his hind end off all night, regardless of how many of his teammates were sent to the locker room early. He shuttled the ball back and forth, finding spaces for continued possession. Johnson tied Kljestan for the team lead in chances created (2), went 3/3 in long ball completion, completed 98.2% of his pass attemps, and was his usual pest of a self defensively (a team-high four tackles, a co-leading five clearances, and an interception). He also tied for the team lead in shot attempts (three), although his accuracy on those shots was very defensive-midfielderesque. He was easily the Man of the Match for Orlando on the night and a reunion with Cristian Higuita and Sebas Mendez as the starting trio can’t come soon enough. In the meantime, I hope you enjoy this passing chart as much as I do:
The Other Half
I won’t argue that his game was without flaws last night, because it wasn’t, but Lamine Sané is still showing himself to be a useful player when healthy and paired with someone with whom he has time to build chemistry. Sané got caught of two minds on the Union’s first goal, starting with an intention of coming out to meet Monteiro, then changing his mind. This created uncertainty in Jansson, who strayed too far from Kacper Przybylko as a result, and ultimately it allowed both too much time for Monteiro to pass and too much space for Jansson to recover after. Sané also may have been able to make a desperation lunge to block the eventual Przybylko shot. (As an aside, I’ve seen nothing on replay that changes my initial opinion watching it live that Tesho Akindele was fouled to jump start that play, although I have only the highlight package to go on, so you can’t really get a good look at the players’ feet. I digress.)
Aside from that, Sané — playing like Oates without a Hall or Garfunkel without a Simon — managed two tackles, five clearances, three interceptions, and a blocked shot. His 95.8% passer rating was good, he completed all four of his long ball attempts, and even got in a cross. In fact, as part of O’Connor having Orlando still pursuing the match rather than just seeing it out, Sané even got forward a few times, winning a corner while taking on two Philadelphia defenders with the ball at his feet.
People tend to give Lamine stick largely because he earns nearly a million dollars a year. That’s not an indictment of Sané, nor is it his fault. I’ll never begrudge a player making whatever he can get his boss to pay him. It just shows the wasteful nature of Orlando City’s previous regime. If the former Bundesliga man and Senegalese international were making half his current salary, most fans would likely be fine with the team’s investment in him.
That’s what stood out to me on a lightning-delayed night at Exploria Stadium. If you want a bonus takeaway it’s that I’d like to see another referee for a game against the Union (which we’ll get on Saturday). Chris Penso officiated both league games against Philadelphia last season — making three consecutive games against the Union he’s officiated — as well as the final meeting in 2015. Penso has given 12 yellow cards to Orlando, sending off three players in those four match-ups (two straight reds), to nine yellows for the Union. Eight of those yellow cards against Orlando came in one game, so those bad vibes have never gone away, even though Penso was completely justified in both red cards last night. However, I do think two Union players were extremely fortunate not to be booked early last night.
The good news is that although Orlando lost by two, we still haven’t seen one of those 3-0 or 4-0 howlers that have been all too common in recent years (the Lions suffered four of those last year, as well as 4-1 and 5-2 thrashings, and five in 2017 to go along with a 6-1 beatdown).
Incremental progress is still progress, although we’ll find out if that continues Saturday with an Orlando team that’ll be missing perhaps its best defender.
Anyway, let me know what you saw in the comments space below.
Lion Links
Lion Links: 11/22/24
Emily Sams wins Defender of the Year, Orlando City’s turnaround, Barbra Banda nominated for African Woman Player of the Year, and more.
Happy Friday! Beyond working and catching some soccer here and there, I don’t have many plans for the weekend. I’m also hoping to find some time to trial some cranberry and brie bites I’m trying to perfect before Thanksgiving next week. For now though, let’s jump right into today’s links from around the soccer world!
Emily Sams Awarded NWSL Defender of the Year
The Orlando Pride’s Emily Sams was named 2024 NWSL Defender of the Year after a fantastic season. The Pride only conceded 20 goals in a record-breaking season, and Sams played in all 13 of the team’s shutouts. Sams was one of the most impactful players for the Pride this year and had 163 recoveries, 76 clearances, and 16 blocks. She’s the first Pride player to win the award and it’s great to see her receive some deserved recognition in her second year in Orlando.
Analyzing Orlando City’s Revitalization
It’s been a rollercoaster of a season for the Lions to say the least. There were serious concerns over whether or not the Lions would even make the playoffs back in June and now they find themselves as the highest remaining seed in the Eastern Conference this postseason. Facundo Torres’ excellent run of play is a major reason behind the club’s turnaround, but the buy-in from all of Orlando’s attackers has helped create a dynamic and unselfish offense. Although expectations are rising once more for the Lions, Executive Vice President of Soccer Operations and General Manager Luiz Muzzi spoke on how the team is focused on Sunday’s playoff match.
“There’s only one team that matters: Atlanta United,” Muzzi said. “The easiest way to lose a game is to look ahead. I’ll say we didn’t expect to be playing at home, but it’s welcomed. We’re focused on Atlanta, they’re playing great. They have a lot of confidence and momentum. It doesn’t matter they’re the No. 9 seed because they’re not playing like the No. 9 seed.”
Barbra Banda Up For African Woman Player of the Year
Orlando Pride forward Barbra Banda was one of 10 players nominated for this year’s African Woman Player of the Year award. The 24-year-old has done well for both club and country this year. She scored 13 goals in her first regular season with the Pride and has three goals so far in the playoffs. Banda also had a hat trick for Zambia in the Summer Olympics. She’s joined by fellow NWSL players Temwa Chawinga and Racheal Kundananji on the list of nominees. Bay FC striker Asisat Oshoala, who has won the award in five of the past six years, was not nominated for the first time in a decade. The nomination list will be trimmed to a three-player shortlist before the winner is announced on Dec. 16 in Morocco.
Croix Bethune Named NWSL Midfielder of the Year
Washington Spirit rookie Croix Bethune won NWSL Midfielder of the Year after recording 10 assists and five goals in 17 matches this season. A knee injury cut her season short in September, but she still tied Tobin Heath’s record for the most assists in a season. Bethune gave plenty of NWSL teams headaches this year and also won Rookie of the Year earlier this week. She’s the first player to ever receive NWSL Midfielder of the Year and she beat out the Pride’s Marta, the North Carolina Courage’s Ashley Sanchez, and Kansas City Current duo Lo’eau LaBonta and Vanessa DiBernardo.
Eastern Conference Clubs Making Moves
FC Cincinnati officially signed striker Kevin Denkey from Cercle Brugge on a deal that will last through 2028. The 23-year-old joins as a Designated Player on a reported $16.2 million transfer, which would be a league record. He won the Golden Boot in Belgium last year after scoring 27 goals and should give Cincinnati some considerable firepower next year.
Elsewhere in the league, CF Montreal declined the option on Josef Martinez’s contract, meaning the Venezuelan forward will be a free agent once again. The 31-year-old led Montreal with 11 goals this season and we’ll see where he winds up next. Charlotte FC did not trigger the purchase option on Pep Biel’s loan, opening up a Designated Player spot. Former Lion Junior Urso’s contract option was also declined by Charlotte. The Philadelphia Union signed defender Olivier Mbaizo to a contract extension that will keep him with the club through 2026, with options for 2027 and 2028 as well.
Free Kicks
- In preparation for the 2026 World Cup, FIFA named 26 new options across the country as “base camps” for participating teams to train and rest. Orlando was included, with OCSC’s training grounds at Osceola Heritage Park pitched alongside the Lake Nona Wave Hotel.
- ESPN‘s Jeff Kassouf dove into how the NWSL stacks up to the biggest sports leagues in the U.S. Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Pride and Spirit should showcase just how entertaining the league is to plenty of viewers.
- Pep Guardiola will stick around as Manchester City’s manager for a couple more years after signing a two-year contract extension with the club. His contract was set to expire at the end of this season.
- Here’s a cool breakdown of the seven amateur teams that have qualified for the 2025 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup so far. None are from Florida, but there are some great logos to check out if you’re looking for a team to root for in the early rounds next year. Debutants Southern Indiana FC and the Virginia Dream are my personal favorites of the bunch.
- The draw for the 2025 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations will take place today. Zambia is in the second pot, meaning it will be put in a group of four that will include one of Nigeria, South Africa, or Morocco. The tournament itself will be in July of next year.
- Arsenal, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City all clinched a spot in the Women’s Champions League quarterfinals with two games still left to play.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend. Go Orlando!
Orlando City
How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively
How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.
The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.
Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.
Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:
I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.
Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):
Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.
Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.
That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:
It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.
If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.
While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.
I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.
Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!
Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.
Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory
What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?
Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?
Beat Guzan
Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.
Cartagena is Essential
Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.
Overcome the Past
That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.
That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links: 11/22/24
Orlando Pride Center Back Emily Sams Named 2024 NWSL Defender of the Year
How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively
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