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Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. Atlanta United

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5 years ago

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To put things lightly, today’s game is an absolute whale of a match-up. Not only is Orlando City playing Atlanta United — a team most Lions fans are less than fond of — but the game comes at a time when Orlando could scarcely need three points more. Were it not for a frustratingly placed varsity football game that needs medical coverage, I would 100% be in the stands tonight for this one.

Even though I won’t be in The Wall this evening, I still did my pregame duty by sitting down with Sydney Hunte from SBNation’s Dirty South Soccer. As always, Sydney was gracious enough to give me an excellent update on how life has been treating Atlanta United. You can read my answers to their questions over at their place.

Atlanta certainly seems to be back to its MLS Cup-winning form with five wins in its last six league matches. What do you think has been the biggest reason for Atlanta being back to the team we’re used to seeing?

Sydney Hunte: I think it’s really a couple of things: A) a result of going back to what’s worked in the past for Atlanta — free-flowing, attacking football, and B) the presence of Josef Martinez, Pity Martinez, and Ezequiel Barco being on the field at the same time.

I do think that it’s more of the former since this team is simply not used to playing any other way. Frank de Boer tried to overplay his hand when he first came in and attempted to impose a more possession-based, slower version of what Atlanta players and fans were used to. There was a good bit of push-back because of it (including a publicized rift between de Boer and Pity Martinez), as well as some pointed comments from players to the media criticizing the change in tactics from what Tata Martino rolled out in 2017 and 2018.

I think credit is due to de Boer because rather than succumb to the stubbornness that cost him his job at Inter and Crystal Palace, he was willing to adapt and return to the tactical style that Atlanta was famous for in its first two years. Part of that was a switch to a 3-5-2 that favors play alongside the outside wings and depends on well-placed crosses into the box to create opportunities for players like Josef Martinez to score goals, and it’s no surprise that he’s looked better than he’s looked all season over this past chunk of matches. At times, the wings are able to work up the field and look for diagonal balls to break through the defense, which is what you saw with Julian Gressel on Josef’s goal in Portland.

The three DPs playing together and building chemistry certainly helps as well. Pity Martinez has slowly been acclimating himself into the forward corps and is hopefully set for a strong back end of the season going into the playoffs. Barco hasn’t quite found his form yet after a long absence but should return to it sooner rather than later. I think that once those two can put the pieces together, they — coupled with Josef Martinez — will make Atlanta tough to beat down the stretch.

One of those wins came in the Campeones Cup final over Club America. I’m curious to get an Atlanta fan’s perspective on the competition. Was it a trophy that most fans were super invested in winning or was it viewed as simply another distraction in a season where Atlanta already competed in the Concacaf Champions League and has advanced to the U.S. Open Cup final?

SH: I’ll be completely honest: I wasn’t too high on Campeones Cup, even with Atlanta having made it. However, after watching what turned out to be an emotional, competitive match against one of the big clubs in Liga MX, I came away with a greater appreciation of it and certainly will be watching in the future. I think that Atlanta fans will certainly pay more attention to it down the road whether they shared my sentiment coming into the match or were already amped up to see it play out.

I will say that Atlanta players were completely all-in on the competition, with even Pity Martinez guaranteeing a victory beforehand and Josef Martinez saying afterward that he would look back on beating Las Aguilas as a highlight of his career when he retired. You could certainly see what it meant to América players during the match as well. I think that in a sense, a team like Atlanta (or any other MLS side, for that matter) was really the best-case scenario for the organizers of the tournament as you’d like to see MLS grow more competitive with Liga MX sides — especially with this era of collaboration they’re in right now — which hopefully carries over to CCL.

What do you see as a match-up that Atlanta needs to win in order to make it three wins out of three against Orlando this season?

SH: I think it really rests on Orlando’s outside backs to neutralize the threat that both Justin Meram and Julian Gressel pose along the edges of the pitch. Obviously there’s no love lost between Meram and Orlando City fans, but he’s looked terrific in his tenure with Atlanta and has fit right into that 3-5-2 formation since both he and Gressel have the pace to work the ball upfield rather than it being forced through the middle — which really was a source of frustration for the team this season, especially without a player like Miguel Almiron, who really thrived on making those pretty runs through the center of the field.

Obviously, the health of João Moutinho and Ruan may be in question, but whoever is on either side of Orlando’s defense on Friday night will have their hands full.

Are there any injuries, suspensions, or call-ups that will keep players unavailable for selection on Friday? What is your projected starting lineup and score prediction?

SH: As I write this (on Tuesday evening), I’m not sure of the status of Franco Escobar and Eric Remedi as they both missed Campeones Cup last Wednesday and the Portland Timbers game on Sunday night with separate injuries. Brek Shea is done for the year with a knee injury. Mikey Ambrose, who was questionable for Portland, should crack the 18 but probably won’t see any time, but outside of that, it’s a largely clean bill of health.

Lineup-wise, de Boer has to toe the line of ensuring Atlanta is able to come away from Orlando with a result (especially on the road, and especially in a rivalry match) while having an eye toward a U.S. Open Cup final on Tuesday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium against Minnesota United. That said, it should still be close to a first-team XI as possible, especially with the match in Philadelphia over Labor Day weekend being the last before the international break. Here’s how I think it will look if Remedi and Escobar are both fit (3-5-2):

Forwards: Josef Martinez-Pity Martinez.

Midfield: Justin Meram-Ezequiel Barco-Eric Remedi-Darlington Nagbe-Julian Gressel.

Defense: Franco Escobar-Leandro Gonzalez Pirez-Miles Robinson.

If Remedi and Escobar can’t go, look for Jeff Larentowicz and Florentin Pogba to take their places in the lineup, respectively.

As for a scoreline prediction? Atlanta does come into Exploria Stadium riding that wave of momentum after a Campeones Cup victory at home and a key away win at the Timbers, giving it back-to-back away wins across all competitions after four straight losses away from Mercedes-Benz. I feel that they’ll be able to ride that to a victory, although I think Orlando makes it a little interesting and puts pressure on the visitors early on before allowing a pair of second-half goals. Let’s go with 2-0 Atlanta with Josef Martinez extending his MLS-record scoring streak to 12 and Ezequiel Barco finding the net for his first goal in a while.

Big thanks to Sydney for the excellent info on Atlanta.

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. CF Montreal, Leagues Cup: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More

The Lions begin their 2024 Leagues Cup quest at home against Montreal.

Published

10 hours ago

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July 26, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Welcome to your match thread for a Friday night Leagues Cup matchup between Orlando City and CF Montreal at Inter&Co Stadium (8 p.m., MLS Season Pass on Apple TV+). It’s the first match of the competition for both teams, and tonight’s game marks the third time the two Eastern Conference sides will meet this season. The teams split the points in both regular-season matchups, drawing both times. More on that later.

Here’s what you need to know ahead of the match.

History

The Lions are 8-9-5 against Montreal in the all-time regular-season series and 9-10-5 in all competitions since they joined MLS. OCSC is 4-4-3 in its home stadium against Montreal and 5-4-3 in the greater Orlando area when including a win in the knockout rounds of the MLS is Back Tournament in 2020.

The two sides last met in Montreal on April 20, trading goals back and forth in a 2-2 draw at Stade Saputo. Mason Toye opened the scoring early but Facundo Torres equalized from the spot a few minutes later. Ariel Lassiter appeared to win it late in normal time for the hosts, but Ivan Angulo struck in stoppage time to earn Orlando City a road point. These teams opened the 2024 season against each other in Orlando and played to a 0-0 draw. The Lions dominated the stat sheet but had a goal waved off for offside and simply weren’t lethal enough in front of goal.

The teams met twice in 2023, completing the season series on Sept. 30, 2023, with the Lions winning 3-0 in dominant fashion. Jonathan Sirois’ own goal opened the scoring, and Dagur Dan Thorhallsson and Torres added strikes for Orlando City. That was a good measure of revenge for OCSC, after Montreal defeated Orlando City 2-0 and handed the Lions their first road loss of the 2023 MLS season on May 6 at Stade Saputo. A Robin Jansson own goal got Montreal started in the second half and Romell Quioto added a second goal four minutes later.

These two sides played their biggest game against each other in the 2022 MLS playoffs, with CF Montreal knocking Orlando City out of the postseason by a 2-0 scoreline on Oct. 16, with goals by Ismael Kone and Djordje Mihailovic — the latter coming deep in stoppage time from the penalty spot.

Each team won at home in the two-game, regular-season series in 2022, with Montreal thumping Orlando 4-1 on May 7. Joel Waterman, Mihailovic, Joaquin Torres, and Zachary Brault-Guillard did the damage on the scoreboard and Orlando City managed just two shot attempts, with Joao Moutinho’s goal on a set piece helping the Lions avoid a shutout. Orlando City did not have either starting center back for that match, and it showed. The teams also met on opening day of the 2022 season, when Orlando City captured a 2-0 home win behind second-half goals from Alexandre Pato and Benji Michel.

In 2021, the teams met in Montreal on Decision Day, with the Lions earning a 2-0 road victory at Stade Saputo to clinch a playoff spot. Sebas Mendez and Daryl Dike provided the goals. That season’s matchup in Orlando came on Oct. 20, 2021, with the visitors managing a 1-1 draw. Chris Mueller struck for the Lions just before halftime, but Rudy Camacho answered on a corner kick header shortly after the restart. The first meeting of 2021 took place Sept. 15 in Orlando with the Lions falling 4-2 and finishing the game with just nine men after both Nani and Andres Perea were sent off. Quioto led Montreal with a goal and two assists. Mathieu Choiniere and Quioto put Montreal up 2-0, but despite already being down one man, Jansson and Ruan tied things up. The visitors got two more from Lassi Lappalainen and Sunusi Ibrahim.

The teams met at Red Bull Arena in late 2020 as the team then known as the Montreal Impact played home games in New Jersey due to the pandemic. Orlando City got a Dike goal in the 39th minute to win 1-0 on Nov. 1, 2020. It was the second meeting of the 2020 season, with Orlando also beating Montreal 1-0 in the MLS is Back Tournament knockout rounds on July 25 to advance to the quarterfinals. Tesho Akindele scored the game’s only goal on a Montreal defensive mistake.

Orlando City snapped a six-game winless streak against Montreal (0-5-1) in MLS regular-season play dating back to 2016 when the Lions put the Impact to the sword in a 3-0 drubbing at Stade Saputo on June 1, 2019. Nani (penalty), Akindele, and Will Johnson supplied the offense that day. The Lions fell 3-1 at Exploria Stadium back on March 16, 2019, and Ignacio Piatti was a big reason why, scoring his ninth and 10th career goals against Orlando, adding to a strike by Orji Okwonkwo. Dom Dwyer added a cosmetic goal late for Orlando City to spoil the clean sheet.

Montreal did not allow a goal against the Lions in 2018, sweeping the two-game set from Orlando, and the Impact shut out Orlando City in three of the six meetings in that 5-0-1 run. The lone draw in that time frame was a 3-3 shootout in Orlando in 2017, in which the Impact led deep in stoppage time, only to see Jonathan Spector’s well-placed header steal the Lions a point.

Orlando won the first two meetings in 2016 by a combined score of 6-2. The teams split three meetings in 2015, with each going 1-1-1.

Match Overview

Orlando City enters this match on a five-game unbeaten run (4-0-1). The Lions are coming off a tightly contested 1-1 home draw against New York City FC on Saturday. The only Orlando goal was provided by Ramiro Enrique, but the Lions conceded a Hannes Wolf strike five minutes later. Enrique is in fine form, having scored goals in each of his last four games. Regardless of Orlando’s form, this competition is not part of the MLS regular season, so it’s difficult to know how teams and players will approach it. In addition, it’s not like the Lions have lit it up at home in 2024, amassing a poor record of 3-5-4 at Inter&Co Stadium. However, the Lions have been better of late, going 2-0-1 in their last three at home.

Montreal sits four spots and seven points behind Orlando in the Eastern Conference standings at the Leagues Cup break, struggling to defend in 2024. CF Montreal has allowed 49 goals this season, which is just one fewer than D.C. United’s conference-worst 50. The Canadian club, which is coming off a 1-0 home loss to rival Toronto on Saturday, is 2-7-4 on the road this season and is 0-7-3 in its last 10 road games against MLS competition (0-7-4 on the road in all competitions in its last 11).

A new competition offers hope for both teams, especially Montreal. There is not as much pressure to get a result for the underdog visitors, and it’s a chance to reset and chase a trophy. Ibrahim and old nemesis Josef Martinez are offensive players the Lions must account for, as they are Montreal’s leaders with six and five goals, respectively. Former Lion Ruan will present enough speed to keep up with Orlando City’s Angulo, so that will be an interesting battle to keep an eye on tonight (assuming both play).

“First, we are very excited to participate in this tournament. Last year, I thought it was a successful one, and the experience we had playing the two leagues was good,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said ahead of the match. “We played against Houston [Dynamo] and Santos [Laguna], which is one of the best teams in Mexico, and the experience was good. Overall, we are preparing and respecting the tournament as much as we can. Everyone is excited to be a part of it.”

As of this writing, it doesn’t appear that availability reports will be a thing for the Leagues Cup, but it’s fair to say the Lions will be without Duncan McGuire (international duty), Mason Stajduhar (lower leg), and Michael Halliday (knee).

Match Content

Official Lineups:

Orlando City (4-2-3-1)

Goalkeeper: Pedro Gallese.

Defenders: Kyle Smith, Robin Jansson, David Brekalo, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson.

Defensive Midfielders: Cesar Araujo, Wilder Cartagena.

Attacking Midfielders: Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Nico Lodeiro.

Forward: Ramiro Enrique.

Bench: Javier Otero, Rafael Santos, Luca Petrasso, Alex Freeman, Rodrigo Schlegel, Felipe, Jeorgio Kocevski, Favian Loyola, Yutaro Tsukada, Luis Muriel, Jack Lynn.

CF Montreal (3-4-1-2)

Goalkeeper: Sebastian Breza.

Defenders: Fernando Alvarez, Joel Waterman, Gabriele Corbo.

Midfielders/Wingbacks: Joaquin Sosa, Nathan Saliba, Victor Wanyama, Ruan.

Attacking Midfielder: Mathieu Choiniere.

Forwards: Matias Coccaro, Sunusi Ibrahim.

Bench: Jonathan Sirois, Lassi Lappalainen, Dawid Bugaj, Bryce Duke, Ilias Iliadis, Ariel Lassiter, Joseph Martinez, Kwadwo Opoku, Tom Pearce, Rida Zouhir.

Referees:

REF: Adonai Escobedo González.
AR1: Enrique Bustos Díaz.
AR2: Enedina Caudillo Gómez.
4TH: Lizzet Garcia Olvera.
VAR: Melissa Borjas Pastrana.

How to Watch

Match Time: 8 p.m.

Venue: Inter&Co Stadium — Orlando.

TV/Live Stream: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV+.

Radio: FM 96.9 The Game (English).

Twitter: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow along at @TheManeLand, as well as Orlando City’s official Twitter feed (@OrlandoCitySC).

Enjoy the match. Go City!

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Orlando City

Examining the Sustainability of Ramiro Enrique’s Scoring Explosion

Is Ramiro Enrique’s scoring outburst sustainable, or is a regression to the mean on the horizon?

Published

11 hours ago

on

July 26, 2024

By

Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Since Orlando City’s 5-0 thumping of D.C. United back on July 6, Ramiro Enrique has tapped into a red-hot vein of form. He’s got four goals in four games, matching his scoring output from the entirety of the 2023 season, and doing so in four matches and 245 minutes, as compared to 30 matches and 1,019 minutes last year. That brings us to the big question: is this sort of output sustainable?

We’ll start by looking at the expected goals on each of his four tallies. While xG isn’t a perfect statistic, it provides a fairly good measure of how good a chance is. To get a clearer picture, we’ll also take a look at each goal to help gauge how difficult the chance is.

Against D.C. United, Enrique latched onto a flicked-on header from a corner kick and used a header of his own to score the Lions’ fifth and final goal of the night. That strike had an xG of 0.1. In truth, that number seems a bit low to me, as once Enrique’s in front of his defender, he has the whole net to aim at, and the ball comes in at a great height for him to get his head on it. He makes no mistake and sticks it into the side netting, where the goalkeeper has no hope of reaching it.

Against the New England Revolution, the Argentine again scored from a corner, sneaking in front of goalkeeper Aljaz Ivacic and flicking the ball past him before he could collect Cesar Araujo’s header. His second goal of the season had an xG of 0.4. That number seems more reasonable to me. Once he does the hard work of losing his marker and getting across Ivacic, the goalkeeper is helpless to stop any ball that isn’t coming straight at him, and it’s a good finish.

Against Nashville, he collected a pass from Ivan Angulo a few yards outside of the six-yard box and blasted it off the crossbar and in. The tight angle from which he scored means the xG of 0.04 isn’t too surprising. Once again, Enrique managed to lose his defender and got himself into a really nice area of open space. The finish is outstanding, but it wouldn’t have been surprising to see a save or shot off target from this angle.

His fourth goal of the year had elements of skill and luck, as he redirected Martin Ojeda’s shot against NYCFC. The effort from Ojeda took a deflection off Enrique that caught the goalkeeper leaning the wrong way and had enough pace to carry it into the net, for an xG of 0.11. Again, I’m surprised the number is as high as it is. That’s probably due to the deflection happening in the box and leaving Matt Freese next to no time to react. While it was a clever touch to redirect it, there was also a good deal of luck involved.

Those totals add up to 0.65. In other words, Enrique would be estimated to score 0.65 goals off those chances (or one, rounding up, as there are no fractions of goals), and he instead bagged four. There are a couple ways you can view that. The optimist would say that he’s simply a good finisher and has been making the most of the chances that have come his way, even when they aren’t very good ones. The pessimist would say that him converting low percentage chances at this rate isn’t sustainable, and he’s due to regress back to the mean soon.

We can also look at the bigger picture of his statistics up to this point in the year. Across 11 games and 483 minutes, Enrique has taken 18 shots, put nine of them on target, and scored from four of those. He’s also got a season xG of 3.52, which is pretty much in line with his goal total of four, although he’s slightly outperforming it. That isn’t a bad thing though, as the best strikers score difficult chances too, not just the easy ones. Cristian Arango, Christian Benteke, and Denis Bouanga are the top three scorers in the league, and Bouanga is the only one not outperforming his xG (17.68 xG compared to 16 goals).

In my opinion, the truth of Enrique’s case lies somewhere in between. He’s put 50% of his shots on target this year, which is a great number, and getting the ball on frame is half the battle in this sport, so that’s an encouraging place to start. Each of his first three goals in 2024 came as a result of getting into space in a dangerous area and making no mistake with his finish once the ball arrived. Against D.C., he did well to get in front of his defender. In New England, he snuck in from the blind side of the defense. And against Nashville, he found space in the box and stayed onside until Angulo was able to find him. That sort of movement and ability to get yourself into dangerous areas is something that can be replicated, even if finishing low-percentage chances like the strikes against Nashville and NYCFC probably isn’t.

If Enrique continues being clever with his movement and finding dangerous spaces, Orlando’s offense has begun to look fluid enough that his teammates will find ways to get him the ball. As long as he keeps getting shots on frame and his finishing stays sharp, it isn’t unreasonable to assume that he’ll grab some more goals this year. It probably won’t be at the rate he’s done so in July, but if nothing else, he should be able to provide some extra firepower to an OCSC attack that has woken up in recent weeks. Keep your fingers crossed, folks. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/26/24

Orlando City plays CF Montreal tonight, USWNT wins against Zambia, Marta provides assist in Brazil’s win, and more.

Published

13 hours ago

on

July 26, 2024

By

Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Happy Friday! I hope the work week has gone easy on you as we get ready for a weekend filled to the brim with soccer to enjoy. The Olympic opening ceremony is also today, and I’m interested to see what the organizers in Paris have come up with. But for now, let’s get this Friday started with today’s links!

Orlando City Takes On CF Montreal Tonight

The Leagues Cup kicks off today and Orlando City will host CF Montreal tonight in its first of two group games. The Lions will then take on Atletico de San Luis on Aug. 4. It’s worth noting that these games will go into a penalty shootout if the score remains level after 90 minutes, with the winner of the shootout getting an extra point. The top two teams of each group advance to the next round and Orlando will play the Philadelphia Union, Cruz Azul, or Charlotte FC if it survives the group stage.

USWNT Beats Zambia in Summer Olympic Opener

The United States Women’s National Team started its Olympic campaign with a dominant 3-0 win against Zambia. The USWNT’s attack looked free and dangerous, with Trinity Rodman striking first and Mallory Swanson scoring twice in quick succession to give the USWNT a comfortable lead. Those goals also came before Zambia was reduced to 10 players after a red card to Pauline Zulu. The Orlando Pride’s Barbra Banda and Grace Chanda both started for Zambia, although Chanda was subbed out in the first half when Zambia had to make changes due to the red card.

There is some bad news along with the good for the USWNT though. Jaedyn Shaw missed out on playing in the opener due to a leg injury, and Sophia Smith had to exit in the 42nd minute.

Marta Assists in Brazil’s Olympic Win

The USWNT was far from the only team to win its first game of this year’s Olympics, as there were no draws after the first round of games. Pride star Marta provided the assist on Brazil’s only goal in a 1-0 win over Nigeria. Marta did well to pick out Gabi Nunes from a tough angle, and the striker had a great first touch and strike to put it away. Pride defender Rafaelle helped secure the shutout, with Brazilian goalkeeper Lorena coming up with huge saves as well. Elsewhere in Group C, Spain’s Aitana Bonmati had a goal and an assist in her team’s 2-1 win against Japan.

New Zealand struck first against Canada in Group A, but the Canadians rallied to come back and win 2-1. France scored three goals in the first half and survived a rally from Colombia in the second half to win 3-2. Germany may have had the most impressive win so far, beating a talented Australian side 3-0.

Analyzing New Zealand Ahead of Olympic Clash

The United States Men’s Olympic Soccer Team will aim to bounce back from a loss to France when it faces New Zealand on Saturday. New Zealand beat Guinea in its first game and is coached by Darren Bazeley, who led New Zealand to the knockout stage of the 2023 U-20 World Cup. Minnesota United center back Michael Boxall and Viking FK midfielder Joe Bell are two of New Zealand’s overage players and give the team some stability. Goalkeeper Alex Paulsen, who joined Bournemouth this summer, is capable of coming up with acrobatic saves to give the U.S. fits as well. As for New Zealand’s attack, midfielder Sarpreet Singh and striker Ben Waine are a couple of the dynamic players the U.S. will have to keep in check.

Bev Priestman Removed From Canadian Olympic Team

Canada will have to go the rest of the Olympics without Head Coach Bev Priestman, who was removed from the team by the Canadian Olympic Committee. This decision comes amid a scandal involving spying on New Zealand’s training, which led to Canada Soccer suspending Priestman for the rest of the tournament. Reports have also surfaced that Canada’s men’s and women’s teams have tried to spy on opponents for years, including during the women’s team’s winning campaign in the 2021 Olympics. Only time will tell if Priestman will coach the team after this tournament and if punishments for the team’s actions will be handed out.

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That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend. Enjoy the Olympics!

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