Orlando City
Orlando City at D.C. United: Five Takeaways
Orlando City scored early but missed multiple opportunities to extend the lead and conceded twice in stoppage time in a 2-1 loss on the road against D.C. United. Head Coach Oscar Pareja rolled out the same lineup as the one used in last week’s U.S. Open Cup semifinal win, but the Lions weren’t able to replicate that success. Although winning on the road in MLS isn’t easy, the Lions had plenty of opportunities to ensure they left Audi Field with all three points. Here are our five takeaways from the loss.
The Bear Stepped Up
Junior Urso’s goal was one of the best scored by Orlando this year and he did a great job providing some needed oomph to Orlando’s offense. When it comes to scoring, the Lions have leaned heavily on their Designated Players this year. While that’s what DPs are for, it’s resulted in opposing defenses locking down those players and daring someone on Orlando to beat them instead. Urso did so in this match and put three of his four shots on target to serve as a constant threat in the first half. The lineup allowed Urso to thrive on the right wing and attack the goal, filling that void on the wing opposite of Facundo Torres that has been empty for most of the year. Missed shots aside, Alexandre Pato and Benji Michel also did great jobs creating chances so that the burden didn’t completely fall on the shoulders of Facundo Torres and Mauricio Pereyra. With Ercan Kara on the bench, it was important that Urso and the others stepped up to provide new ways for Orlando to score. While the floodgates didn’t exactly bust open, it was nice to see a goal between two Orlando players that weren’t DPs.
Poor Finishing Plagues the Lions
Urso’s chip shot to beat Rafael Romo and give Orlando a goal in the ninth minute was a great start to the match. However, the Lions wasted plenty of chances in the first half to increase that lead on the road. While poor finishing has plagued the team all season, misses from Pato and Michel were especially egregious in this match. Pato had four shots and none were on target as he seemed intent on putting the ball in the stands. His worst miss was in the 28th minute as he got too much under a shot that just needed to be on frame as Romo was miles away from the net. It still wasn’t the worst shot of the afternoon as Michel shanked a sitter right in front of goal in the 38th. While the offense did a great job creating chances in the first half, they didn’t impact the scoreboard all too much. Orlando’s one-goal lead was razor thin and D.C. made Orlando pay for not putting the game away when it could.
The Defense Bends and Then Breaks
Orlando’s defense was solid until it wasn’t, conceding twice in stoppage time as all points were lost to the hosts. While the timing of the goals makes it look like a complete collapse from Orlando’s defense, D.C.’s offense was getting closer and closer to scoring as the second half wore on. Heroic goalkeeping from Pedro Gallese and calculated defensive plays from center backs Antonio Carlos and Robin Jansson kept the Lions alive throughout the match, but ultimately it wasn’t enough. The congested July schedule seemed to catch up to the Lions all at once as they were sluggish when D.C. switched the run of play and men were left unmarked in the box. Tired legs or not, Orlando allowed the same player that scored a hat trick in Exploria Stadium earlier this month to beat them yet again. It was the third straight road match that Orlando’s defense was unable to hold onto a lead in the second half.
Mauricio Pereyra’s Exit Changed the Flow
Orlando City’s captain came off the field in the 55th minute due to knee pain and the Lions struggled to maintain possession while he was off the field. Pereyra’s passing ability allows him to sit deep in the midfield to serve as an outlet for passes out of the back while sending accurate balls up the field to jumpstart the offense. He completed all but two of his 30 passes and was sorely missed as D.C. found its footing in the second half. Andres Perea came on for Pereyra but lacked the offensive bite that kept D.C. on its toes. While Perea completed all of his passes, he only had 14 of them in over half an hour of action and Orlando lost some of its flow as a result. The Lions don’t have a like-for-like replacement for Pereyra, so hopefully his injury isn’t too serious.
Four Subs Offered Few Solutions
None of Pareja’s subs helped much in the second half, although a couple of them didn’t necessarily hurt the team either. The substitution of Perea for Pereyra, as noted earlier, was out of necessity and changed the match. Perea simply can’t do what Pereyra can and it’s not fair to expect it from the 21-year-old, especially in his 2022 form. Perea watched the assist pass go right by him on Chris Durkin’s equalizer and he was also a bit passive on the buildup to the winner, allowing Martin Rodriguez plenty of time and space on the ball to pick out Kimarni Smith on the far side. Kyle Smith didn’t necessarily do anything wrong in the match, but Joao Moutinho left the game with the team lead in touches (79) and his exit deprived the Lions of one of their most composed passers and ball handlers in the back. The game may have gone differently had Smith gone in for Ruan, but it’s understandable given Moutinho’s injury history to be careful with the left back’s workload.
Nicholas Gioacchini came on for Torres, but he’s still getting used to the team and the system and didn’t seem quite connected with the group. It might have been better to have used Tesho Akindele in that role, given the game situation, or to have dropped Michel to the wing and brought on Kara. Niko attempted a shot in the 87th minute, but missed well wide of the target from a tight angle.
Rodrigo Schlegel was brought on for the usual see-it-out situation but not until the 89th minute. That didn’t work out either, even if it was tactically sound. The reasons the Schlegel sub didn’t work were down to bad luck and a starter switching off for half a second. With Ruan getting hurt on the lead-up to Durkin’s goal, D.C. had plenty of space to pick out the passes on the two United goals and Schlegel couldn’t stop either from his spot on Jansson’s left. Schlegel could perhaps have blocked Durkin’s effort if he’d shot to the right, but he shot left for the goal. On the second, Jansson switched off for only a heartbeat, calling for an offside on Kimarni Smith. That hesitation was just enough to allow Taxi Fountas the bit of space he needed to cleanly collect the cross and score the winning goal.
That’s what I took from Orlando’s frustrating loss to D.C. United on the road. What stood out to you when watching the match? Let me know in the comments down below.
Orlando City
How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively
How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.
The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.
Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.
Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:
I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.
Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):
Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.
Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.
That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:
It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.
If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.
While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.
I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.
Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!
Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.
Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory
What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?
Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?
Beat Guzan
Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.
Cartagena is Essential
Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.
Overcome the Past
That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.
That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 11/21/24
Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.
How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!
Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship
There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.
Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year
NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.
Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year
Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.
2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled
The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.
Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach
FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.
Free Kicks
- District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.
- Atlanta United interim head coach Rob Valentino, who was an Orlando City B assistant coach in 2015 and played for the USL Lions, spoke on Atlanta’s Cinderella run this postseason ahead of his team’s clash with Orlando City on Sunday.
- CF Montreal signed Canadian center back Joel Waterman to a contract extension that will keep him with the club through 2027 with an option for 2028 as well.
- D.C. United signed goalkeeper Jordan Farr from the Tampa Bay Rowdies on a two-year deal. Farr had 11 shutouts with the Rowdies this year and joins a D.C. side that declined the contract options for both Tyler Miller and Alex Bono last month.
- American forward Catarina Macario had an assist for Chelsea in a 3-0 win against Celtic in the Women’s Champions League.
- Spanish midfielder Juan Mata joined San Diego FC’s ownership group ahead of the club’s inaugural MLS season next year.
- Costa Rican club Alajuelense, which is the highest-ranked team in Central America, has hired a legal firm regarding FIFA allowing both Pachuca and Club Leon to take part in the 2025 Club World Cup despite having the same owner.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!
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