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TML Staff Roundtable: 2023 Orlando City Preseason Thoughts

The staff weighs in on the season to come in advance of Oscar Pareja’s fourth season in charge of the Lions.

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As we head into the 2023 MLS season this weekend, it’s time to once again get a feel for the hopes and expectations for the campaign that awaits. Orlando City enters the season with more questions on the back end than the front this season after last year’s team entered the season with the exact opposite outlook.

I reached out to The Mane Land staff to find out what everyone is thinking ahead of the Lions’ eighth season in Major League Soccer. Big thanks to the entire staff for submitting their thoughts.


1. What part of Orlando City gives you the most confidence entering the new season?

Nic Josey: Bringing back Pedro Gallese is what gives me the most confidence entering the start of the season for Orlando City. Having El Pulpo in net means that Orlando will always have a chance to wind up with a result at the end of the day.

Ben Miller: Easy one here, it has to be the attack. While the Lions only got one goal on Saturday against the Revolution, the first half was full of free flowing soccer that resulted in a number of chances, and if not for some stellar saves from Djorjde Petrovic, Orlando surely would have had more than one. This team is not short of attacking firepower, and it should make for some entertaining games.

David Rohe: For the first time in a long time, the attack. With the addition of Martin Ojeda, Gaston Gonzalez being healthy, and Ercan Kara and Facundo Torres having a season under their belts, I think the Lions should increase their goal total significantly in 2023.

Sean Rollins: I think the Orlando City attack will improve with the addition of Ojeda. Additionally, Jack Lynn and Duncan McGuire have both looked good during the preseason, so I expect more goals this year.

Ryan Smith: I’m confident in the direction ownership and Luiz Muzzi have taken the club. I believe in the player investments and acquisitions made this past off-season.

Marcus Mitchell: Goalkeeping. I have plenty of confidence in Pedro Gallese and the Peruvian shouldn’t miss too much time for international duty.

Joshua Taylor: I would have to say the Lions did a great job adding depth to their roster during the off-season, especially at midfield. Hopefully, Gonzalez can stay healthy this time, and we get to see what he can do in purple.

My Take: I’m with Nic and Marcus. I expect Gallese will do what he always does, while I’m concerned with new faces at both fullback positions and physical breakdowns that the center backs have had both last year and in preseason (in Antonio Carlos’ case) without adding any veteran depth behind them. Up front and in the midfield, the club has done well on paper, but until those new guys start performing in games that matter, it’s a question mark, especially at forward, where everyone behind Kara is young. Gallese is the known quantity.


2. What is your biggest concern with Orlando City entering 2023?

Joshua: The area I would be most concerned about is the back line. Robin Jansson and Carlos both had their fair share of injuries to deal with last season. If that trend continues this year, the Lions will have to rely on some young defenders with little experience.

Nic: My biggest concern is center back depth and the lack of addressing it during the off-season. When healthy, Jansson and Carlos make a top duo in MLS but last year showed how vulnerable the back line can be if either or both miss an extended period of time.

Ben: Depth in defense. Carlos and Jansson remain the rocks, and Rodrigo Schlegel is as good a backup as any in the league. Things fall off sharply after him at center back though, and we don’t really know what to expect out of either Luca Petrasso or Rafael Santos at left back. After years of stability in the back line, there are definitely some questions in 2023.

David: I’m most worried about the back line. Yes, Carlos and Jansson are as good a pairing as any in the league, and Schlegel is one of the best backups in the league. But after that, experience falls off a bit. The same can be said for right back. It looks as if Michael Halliday will be the starter, and I’m all for the youngster getting the opportunity. Behind him is Oscar Pareja’s Swiss Army knife, Kyle Smith. The depth simply isn’t where I want it to feel comfortable. 

Sean: The outside backs are my biggest concern about this team because the starters will be new and probably young. They’ll also be asked to take an attacking role, which can leave the center backs vulnerable to a counterattack.

Ryan: My biggest concern is lack of CB depth. Schlegel has proven to be more than capable of stepping up should Jansson or Carlos go down. However, if both go down, I’m not confident in whoever might be Orlando’s No. 4 choice on the depth chart at this point.

Marcus: I’m not overly confident of any of the new fullbacks and the depth at center back is worrying. Orlando can’t afford injuries and frequent suspensions to its center backs during a busy 2023.

My Take: While it would be easy for me to continue to beat the drum about the inexperience behind Kara at striker, the defense is the obvious answer, as evidenced by my colleagues’ responses above. Unproven fullbacks and the continued refusal to add one more veteran center back have the potential to expose the team defensively, but I’m going to extend that out to the central midfield. Araujo is outstanding. However, with Mauricio Pereyra playing deeper last year, the team shipped more goals. The Lions kept only three clean sheets in the back half of the 2022 MLS regular season after notching six in the first half. There were other factors that were partly to blame (injuries on the back line, for example), but Mauri’s aging legs can be an issue in transition defense, especially in the second halves of games and during the grind of the late summer and early fall months.


3. Which new player are you most excited about seeing this year?

Marcus: I’m pretty excited to see what Shak Mohammed can do. He’s young, versatile, and surrounded by creative teammates who can bring out the best in his play.

Joshua: I’m excited to see what Ojeda can do for the Lions this season. Bringing that versatility to the Lions’ offense and playing alongside Torres could be a good one-two-punch combination that can give defenders a headache. If Ojeda can carry that form he had during his time with Godoy Cruz in Argentina, he can fit in well in the attack with Torres and Kara.

Nic: Ojeda is the player I am most excited to see debut this season, hands down!

Ben: Another easy one, it’s Ojeda. Not only was he the big Designated Player signing, but he looked like it on Saturday. Popping up all over the attacking half, and only denied a goal by a superb Petrovic stop, he looks like the real deal and should provide immense attacking firepower. If he lives up to what he showed against the Revs then he’s going to be very difficult to stop.

David: This will probably be the answer for many of my colleagues but it is Ojeda. I think he has the ability to not just score goals and assist goals, but also to be a leader on the field. The potential chaos he and Torres can create with their creativity is something that I think will be a pleasure to watch this season.

Sean: There’s only one answer to this question and it’s Ojeda. The newest DP was exciting to watch against the New England Revolution last Saturday night and his partnership with Torres should be fun.

Ryan: Ojeda! After initial looks against New England in the preseason, he seems to have more pace than I anticipated. He definitely isn’t afraid to rifle off a shot or two when he has a couple yards of space from his defender. I like the thought of seeing more players not afraid to test the keeper from outside of the box instead of trying to wait until they are just a few yards away for a tap-in.

My Take: Ojeda is pretty much unanimous here, and being a Designated Player, that’s to be expected, but with all due respect to Sean’s assertion that there is only one answer, I’m going with Dagur Dan Thorhallsson. He made an impact on the scoresheet in the preseason and brings something a little different to the team. I don’t know how he fits into the lineup or Oscar Pareja’s rotation, but when he’s on the field, I want to see him taking set pieces — something he did well while with his former team in Iceland. Hopefully he’ll have the confidence to take those instead of deferring to Pereyra or Torres. It would be a huge advantage if Orlando City could make opponents fear conceding fouls around the box.


4. Which 2022 newcomer will make the biggest leap in 2023?

Ryan: Ivan Angulo — Just wait until you see him with 10+ goal contributions this season.

Marcus: Excluding Gonzalez, for obvious reasons, I think it has to be Kara. He had a strong first year and could score 15 or more goals this season in an upgraded offense.

Joshua: I think Torres can have another solid year after scoring 13 goals last season across all competitions. Torres has proven to be a dynamic goal scorer, and I can see him becoming the top goal scorer for the club by the end of the season. 

Nic: I think Cesar Araujo is going to make the biggest leap in 2023. I expect him to be named to the MLS All-Star Game in his second year in the league and that we will see him contribute more on the offensive end of the field as well.

Ben: Araujo. He still eats up so much ground and does an immense amount of work in the middle of the field. With a full off-season and a year of MLS experience under his belt, I think he’ll be recognized as one of the very best defensive midfielders in the league by the end of the season. Frankly, I don’t think Orlando will be able to hold onto him for another season if he develops the way I think he will.

David: Kara will make the biggest leap. I know that sounds strange for a guy who scored 11 goals in 2022, but I’m expecting quite a bit more from him this season. One of the biggest issues he had was a lack of service, and I think that will improve thanks to Torres, Ojeda, Gonzalez, and others. I’m looking for the big guy to get closer to 17 or 18 goals this season.

Sean: Many of the returning players on this team had excellent seasons in 2022, so I expect to see the biggest jump by Mikey Halliday. The Homegrown defender hasn’t played much so far, but I expect he’ll get a lot more playing time this season and show what he can do.

My Take: Provided he stays healthy, I think Kara will add to his goal-scoring total in 2023 and serve up a big glass of shut-the-hell-up to some of the national guys who looked at his stats but didn’t take the time to analyze them or to, you know, actually watch the team play. I don’t know if he gets to 17 or 18 — that would be quite welcome — but 15 is a realistic number and I expect his assists to go up too. I think the scoring will be spread out better than it was last year, which is even more important to Orlando’s success than Kara’s goal total rising. If it happens, I think his metrics will be similar to last year but with the totals being higher, he’ll get more respect for the same rate of production, because that’s how these things usually go.


5. What position in the Eastern Conference will the Lions occupy at season’s end?

Sean: I think this team will be better than last year. Replacing Junior Urso with Ojeda is an upgrade offensively and most of the starters are returning. I don’t think they can compete with Philadelphia yet, but I think they can finish in third this year.

Ryan: Second in the East.

Marcus: Fourth. I think this team is going to have a slow start but finish strong as one of the hottest teams in the Eastern Conference.

Joshua: I think the Lions will improve on their seventh-place finish in the Eastern Conference last year and finish in second place in the East this year. 

Nic: I think the Lions will finish the season in the fourth spot, one point clear of fifth place.

Ben: Fourth. Goal scoring shouldn’t be an issue, but I do have some real worries about the defense, especially with the number of games the Lions are going to play this year. There are sufficient bodies to rotate things in the midfield and attack, but unless some young guys step up in a big way on the back line, I think OCSC is going to ship some goals from around August onward, and it’ll mean a fourth-place finish, which would still be respectable.

David: I’m going to be bullish and put Orlando City at third in the East. I think the playoffs are a given, but I’m hoping that once the team truly gels with the newcomers it will be something special. 

My Take: I think this is a team that may take some time to get its chemistry going and could hit some rough patches during fixture congestion because there aren’t enough viable bodies at the back. I think it’s likely the team will end the regular season in fourth or fifth place in the conference but could be peaking just as the postseason arrives.


6. Hit me with your bold prediction for Orlando City’s 2023 season. Make ‘em extra spicy!

David: The Lions win the MLS Cup, and Oscar Pareja wins Coach of the Year. The club accomplishes this because Orlando City goes from scoring 44 goals with a -9 goal differential in 2022 to scoring 65 goals with a +20 goal differential in 2023. 

Sean: My bold prediction is that McGuire will replace Kara as starting striker and lead the team in scoring. Kara is a DP, but will only score with service. I think McGuire is a better fit for the offense because he’ll drop back into the midfield and help create chances.

Ryan: McGuire, Torres, Ojeda, Angulo, and Kara each will have six or more goals in all competitions. Orlando will break its 2016 record of 55 goals scored in MLS regular-season play.

Marcus: The Lions repeat as U.S. Open Cup champions. Head Coach Oscar Pareja is one of the best in the business when it comes to balancing the regular season and tournaments.

Joshua: Winning the U.S. Open Cup last year was nice, but I expect these Lions to be hungry to add another cup to that trophy case. My bold prediction is the Lions will win MLS Cup this year. 

Nic: Orlando City will earn a repeat spot in the U.S. Open Cup final but will lose on the road in penalty kicks during a nail-biting final.

Ben: Angulo scores 10 goals. He got the start on Saturday, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that be the case for a little bit, while Gonzalez continues to work back from tearing his ACL. Angulo has great control, is devilishly tricky with the ball at his feet, and has speed to boot. While I think he’ll be tasked with a lot of defensive duties to help cover for the roaming Ojeda and Torres, he absolutely has goals in him, and I think he’ll hit double digits after not finding the net at all in his first half-season with the club.

My Take: Some of the above takes are pretty darn spicy. Warn a guy to get his oven mitts, guys! I’m going to go even further and get really nuts. I’m going to make my bold prediction as such: The Lions finally break the Wayne Rooney curse and sweep D.C. United in 2023. If not now, when? Oh, and Orlando somehow gets past Tigres in the Concacaf Champions League before bowing out later to another Mexican side.


If you made it to the end of this roundtable discussion, wow. Good job! We can be a verbose bunch sometimes, but we tried to keep them more concise this year.

Let us know in the comments where you agree and disagree, and give us your own bold predictions.

Opinion

Pedro Gallese’s Recent Form No Surprise

Pedro Gallese’s recent solid form isn’t anything new, you just need to know where to look.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

One of the more frustrating narratives surrounding Orlando City at the beginning of the season was the assertion that goalkeeper Pedro Gallese was playing poorly and was costing the Lions points. The main point of emphasis from the detractors was the Lions’ 4-2 opening day loss to the Philadelphia Union, although he also got a lot of flak for his performances against Toronto FC, and during the 2-1 loss to New York City FC. That criticism has started to get quieter in recent weeks, particularly after he made the bench of the most recent MLS Team of the Matchday, but I don’t think he was playing nearly as poorly as some people made him out to be at the start of the season, and his recent performances haven’t come out of nowhere.

So let’s talk about those two big supposed “black marks” on his 2025 resume. Most of the chatter came from the opening game against the Union, with him coming in for criticism in two instances here, and here. I want to specifically address the mention of Gallese allowing six goals on 2.9 post-shot expected goals. Listen, I don’t actually have a problem with the xG stat the way some people do, and I truly think it can be incredibly useful when used properly in certain contexts. I just don’t think the numbers tell the full story here.

Against the Union, three goals came from inside or on the edge of the six-yard box, and were one-touch finishes. Gallese realistically had no chance on two of them (the first and fourth goals), and while the other one came from an acute angle and was mostly right at him, the ball is still coming so fast and from such a short distance that it still feels a bit nitpicky to place the blame entirely on him. Yes, he arguably could have done better, but there are plenty of goalkeepers in this league that aren’t saving that.

The other goal of the night came from a Rodrigo Schlegel error and a first touch shot from the edge of the box that came as El Pulpo was already moving laterally across his goal to shift with the rest of his defense, only for the shot to be heading for the opposite side of the net. Despite the distance the shot is coming from, that one also feels harsh to blame him for in my book. Again, I love xG when it’s used properly, but I just don’t think this is a fair application, as it doesn’t take into account where Gallese is at the time of the turnover-produced shot — only the shooter’s location. I find it pretty hard to look at each one of those goals and honestly say that he should save them. To me, there’s a big difference between something a goalkeeper could do more to save and something they should do more to save.

The other two goals out of the aforementioned six came against Toronto FC, and honestly it’s hard for me to put a ton of blame on him for either of them. The first came off a corner and was a header from inside the six-yard box, and although he should maybe do better considering the angle of the shot and his placement in the goal, the final shot comes from about three yards away. I’m sorry, but that just requires excellent reaction time, and while it’s the sort of shot that we do see saved in MLS sometimes, I’m not sure it’s one that we should expect to see saved. TFC’s final goal of the night was a great strike from distance in the bottom corner that also came through a few bodies, which meant Gallese didn’t see it until fairly late on. Again, to me this is a shot that he could do more to save, but not one that he should do more to save, and that’s an important distinction.

Honestly, the most justified criticism I’ve seen probably comes from here, when speaking about the 2-1 loss to NYCFC. Gallese gave up a huge rebound for the hosts’ second and eventual game-winning goal. Frankly, it wasn’t great at all and it ended up costing Orlando City a point. That being said, he did still make seven saves in that game and kept the Lions in it with a chance to salvage a late point.

Aside from the error against NYCFC though, El Pulpo has largely been mistake free and pretty blameless for the three goals he’s conceded. One was a penalty kick against the New York Red Bulls, and the second was a one-touch finish from about three yards away which also came against the Red Bulls. Go back and watch the film, and you won’t be shocked to hear that I hold him blameless for both. The goal he surrendered against the LA Galaxy wasn’t great, as Christian Ramirez’s flick isn’t exactly traveling at light speed. But, the shot also goes the opposite way of which Gallese’s momentum is already carrying him, so that’s something to consider. Aside from the rebound against NYCFC, this is the one goal he’s given up in 2025 that I really think he should have done better with.

The Peruvian has gotten a lot of praise (and rightly so) for the three straight clean sheets he’s kept in Orlando’s last three games. He’s made 11 saves during that time and got absolutely peppered late against Montreal, when Orlando went down to 10 men (again!). But he’s been making saves all year long, and the one game he didn’t register any (the season opener), was also a game where you can make a real argument that he couldn’t have done a better job of attempting to stop the ball going in than he already did. His save percentage of 73% is 19th out of 33, which is close to bang average; and his clean sheet percentage of 37.5% is tied for ninth.

Oh, and if we want to bring post-shot expected goals back into this, then let’s look at his post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed (PSxG-GA). PSxG-GA uses expected goals to provide a stat that is based on how likely a goalkeeper is to save a shot. The number can be either positive or negative, with a positive number suggesting either a better-than-average shot-stopping ability, or a goalkeeper that’s been luckier than most. Gallese’s PSxG-GA of 1.7 is tied for 13th out of 49 goalkeepers, which ain’t half bad, is it? It’s worth mentioning that some of the rankings are skewed by keepers who only spent a small amount of time on the field and either let in a ton of goals or very few, but that’s the funny thing about raw stats — they need context.


At the end of the day, I’m not trying to sit here and say that Gallese has been flawless this season, is completely blameless for each and every one of the goals he’s conceded, and that every ounce of criticism that’s come his way has been unfair. There are absolutely goals that he should have done a better job on, but even at the time they were written, I think some of the assertions that he was a massive weak point for the Lions were overblown and not properly justified. He’s had a few shaky moments, like any keeper, but the defense in front of him wasn’t doing him any favors at times, and he was still regularly making saves to keep Orlando City in games. While it’s nice that he’s finally getting some plaudits, he’s had himself a perfectly fine 2025 season for the most part. You just have to take the time to look.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 4/25/25

Orlando City gets ready for Atlanta United, Luiz Muzzi and Ricardo Moreira promoted, NWSL MVP candidates, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Friday! Today starts three straight days of Orlando soccer to enjoy, so make sure to plan your weekend accordingly. It was a fairly fast week for me, and I was able to read three books somehow. Before we dive into today’s links, let’s all wish a very happy 21st birthday to Orlando City winger Nicolas Rodriguez!

Orlando City Gets Ready for Rivalry Match

The Lions are back in action Saturday night against rival Atlanta United in what should be one of the more interesting matchups of the weekend. Both teams are looking for answers on offense heading into this match, as Orlando is coming off of three straight scoreless draws and Atlanta hasn’t won since March. Taking on a rival at home could be just what’s needed for the Lions to jumpstart their attack and return to the form they had earlier this season. Head Coach Oscar Pareja spoke on how it’s an important game to win for Orlando, as well as how the offense needs to exercise some calmness to finish its chances.

Orlando City Promotes Luiz Muzzi and Ricardo Moreira

Luiz Muzzi and Ricardo Moreira were both promoted by Orlando City, with Moreira taking over as the club’s general manager and sporting director and Muzzi becoming senior advisor to ownership, global soccer ventures. It’s a natural step up for Moreira, who joined the club in 2018 and has helped build a competitive roster that’s made the playoffs for the past five seasons. Muzzi’s new role is a bit of a mouthful, but he’ll be taking on an advisory role focused on the growth of the club while working closely with ownership.

“I am truly grateful to have had the opportunity to serve as Orlando City Soccer Club’s EVP of Soccer Operations and General Manager for seven seasons, and I am excited to continue my journey with the club in this new role,” said Luiz Muzzi. “I look forward to working alongside the Wilf family and the leadership team to help shape the future of the club and its continued success, both on and off the field, and I know Orlando City’s Soccer Operations will be in great hands under Ricardo’s leadership.”

Orlando Pride Players in the NWSL MVP Hunt

Now that we’re over a month into the NWSL season, ESPN‘s Jeff Kassouf highlighted the league’s early MVP candidates, and there are a couple of familiar faces in his rankings. Orlando Pride forward Barbra Banda is predictably in the mix in sixth on the list, as she has three goals and an assist to her name so far. But a surprise inclusion is midfielder Haley McCutcheon, who has impressed on both sides of the ball to earn ninth place in the rankings. While I think the MVP race will ultimately be between scorers like Banda, Temwa Chawinga, Ashley Hatch, and Debinha, it’s pretty great to see McCutcheon receive deserved praise for her performance this year.

MLS Transfer News Roundup

The transfer deadline may be over for MLS clubs, but deals that crossed the finish line are still coming in. The Columbus Crew added yet another forward by sending up to $1.2 million to the Houston Dynamo in exchange for Aliyu Ibrahim. The 23-year-old will maintain his U22 Initiative Player status in Columbus and recorded 12 goals and nine assists across 90 appearances for Houston. LAFC signed 26-year-old midfielder Ryan Raposo, who spent the past five seasons with the Vancouver Whitecaps and was a free agent this year. St. Louis City also made things official with Simon Becher by making his loan move a permanent one so that he stays with the club.

Free Kicks


That’s all I have for you this time around. Mother’s Day is less than a month away, just as a warning. If the mothers in your life like romance books and you’re looking for a gift, I can’t recommend The Rom-Commers by Katherine Center enough. Have a great Friday!

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Orlando City

Orlando City Was Hot, But Now Is Not — An Explanation

A comparison of the Lions’ start to the season vs. recent form.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Years ago, back during the early days of the new millennium, one of the first websites to ever “go viral” was the matchmaking site AmIHotOrNot.com. I, of course, never visited this site, as I had access to a mirror on the wall and already knew who was the fairest of them all (not me, the mirror was pretty clear about that). But as a college student during those years, I knew of the site and how it quickly was getting millions of views per day. Today’s topic is related to hot and not, but it is the significantly more important topic of Orlando City’s performance on the field during the 2025 season.

During the first six games of the season, the Lions looked better than any previous Orlando City team in the club’s MLS era in terms of early season offensive prowess. The squad led the league in goals scored, the Designated Players were scoring or contributing to nearly every goal, and with Duncan McGuire still to return to add even more firepower, it seemed like there might be the possibility of running out of purple smoke to shoot off in front of The Wall with how many goals Orlando City was scoring.

And then, with apologies to Prince, purple flames were doused by purple rain, and we found out what it sounds like when Lions fans cry. To understand why the offense went from 2.5 goals scored per game to being shut out in three straight matches for the first time since 2018 we need to first consider whether the start to the season was an aberration itself, and had our expectations misaligned for how this team would perform for the rest of the season. Let’s take a look at how the first six games of 2025 compared with the second half of the 2024 regular season (17 games):

Metric2024 Final 172025 First 6
Goals per Game2.52.5
Shots on Target per Game5.65.5
Shots on Target %40%35%
Goal Conversions per Shot on Target44%45%
Medium + Long Passes Completed per Game215208
Medium + Long Pass Completion %81%80%
Completed Crosses + Switches per Game21.421.0
Progressive Carries + Passes per Game64.657.3
Points Earned per Game2.061.67

For the most part it looks like the beginning of the 2025 season picked right up where the 2024 regular season ended (I intentionally excluded the 2024 playoffs from the data because playoff games tend to be played differently than regular-season games). There were some major changes in personnel from 2024 to 2025, but even with the changes in players, the style of play and the formation used by Orlando City remained the same, and most of the offensive stats are nearly exactly the same. Six games is a decent enough sample size to say that those stats from 2025 were not a fluke, and the offensive output that we saw in the second half of the 2024 season could be reasonably expected to continue at a similar pace.

But then it did not. Oh boy has it not. Looking at the same chart, but comparing the 2025 first six games to the 2025 most recent three matches gets an immediate “not hot” vote and is as ugly as a Bubba Sparxxx song.

Metric2025 First 62025 Last 3
Goals per Game2.50.0
Shots on Target per Game5.53.0
Shots on Target %35%31%
Goal Conversions per Shot on Target45%0%
Medium + Long Passes Completed per Game208171
Medium + Long Pass Completion %80%74%
Completed Crosses + Switches per Game21.012.6
Progressive Carries + Passes per Game57.342.0
Points Earned per Game1.671.0

The sharp-eyed observer will note that red cards are not noted anywhere above, and in those last three games Orlando City played nearly 50 minutes with only 10 players. In both of the games when a red card (the ultimate sum of two yellow cards by the same player) was given, Orlando City was ahead in expected goals at the moment the red card was issued, and while those do not count for anything officially, they indicate who was getting shots off from more dangerous locations. I thought Orlando City seemed more likely to score and take all three points in both games up until the dismissal of a player. Instead, of course, the Lions went down a player and immediately had to pivot to a more defensive posture, and with one fewer player on the field, they could not play (or at least maintain) the same style as they had been.

In addition to playing far more conservatively, in both games Orlando City substituted on a defender for a key attacking player within four minutes of the red card, removing Marco Pašalić in the game against New York and Luis Muriel in the game against Montréal. This was effectively a double negative, and not in the way that turns two negatives into a positive. It was more like f(x) = -2x, a function with a slope of -2 and…let me stop right there. It was bad, and hurt the offense to remove a key playmaker and goal scorer.

Another major issue is that the midfield engine of César Araújo and Eduard Atuesta have played a combined 11 minutes in the last three games, and all 11 of those minutes were played by Atuesta in the game against New York and after the red card. Araújo’s absence has definitely been felt, but as he is more of a deep-lying player and defensive destroyer, the team has been able to adequately replace him, but Atuesta’s offensive talents have been sorely missed. Atuesta may not have many goal contributions, but he is second on the team in shot-creating actions per 90 minutes (4.62) and first on the team in goal-creating actions per 90 minutes (1.20). That 1.20 is the highest in club history (fbref.com only has tracking back to 2018, so apologies to the legend Kaká) among players who played at least 500 minutes in a season, and it is nearly 50% higher than the player in second place in that stat, Mauricio Pereyra in 2020, when he averaged 0.82.

Might it be nice to be able to play a player who is creating a goal every 90 minutes? I think so. Joran Gerbet has played well, especially for a rookie, and specially especially (just go with it) for a rookie in the mentally and physically demanding role of a central midfielder. He has a ton of potential, but he is not yet as productive a player as Atuesta and when the Colombian playmaker returns the offense will get back a key cog that will help to create good shots, and in a game like soccer the difference between a goal and a miss is often a matter of inches, and a slightly better delivery on the pass can turn a shot into a shot on target and a shot on target into a goal.

Is it really as simple as just red cards and injuries, and that if Orlando City can keep its full complement of players on the field and get back some injured players, everything will go from not hot to hot again? Perhaps, but I think there is a style of play change that has also been causing some of the recent issues. I included rows on the charts above on the aggregation of completed crosses and switches (as in switches of the field) per game and medium and long passes completed per game, and from that chart you can see that the numbers are much lower in the last three games as compared to the beginning of this season and the final half of last season.

Those drops coincide with Rafael Santos playing only 59 minutes in the last three games, and with Alex Freeman not being able to get into the attack in the same way as he was in the season-opening games. There definitely is some overlap here with playing down a player and needing to keep defensive players back, but Santos’ offensive contributions (he is currently 20th in MLS in completed crosses + switches per 90 minutes), and even just the threat of him playing a long ball across the field to change the point of attack, have been missed by the Orlando City offense with him off the field. David Brekalo is an excellent defender, but his offensive contributions are more tied to his ability to win balls in the air, whereas Santos is among the league leaders in crosses and switches per 90 minutes, with Freeman one of his primary targets.

Brekalo playing left back certainly helped shore up a defense that had been leaking goals, and Santos was a major contributor to that with some poor defensive performances, but that tradeoff has removed a major threat to the Orlando City offense. Freeman’s reduction in offensive contributions has not helped, but I think the loss of Santos’ early crosses, long switches, and overlapping runs contributed more to the nearly 400-minute dry spell without a goal from open play. The Lions need him to find his form again, though he will not be able to do it against Atlanta, as he will be suspended.

Three games without a goal is unpleasant as a fan, but Orlando City battled in all three games and at least came away with a point. The defense is playing well, and despite many injuries, the Lions are still very much in the playoff hunt as the season approaches the one-third mark. There are legitimate reasons for the recent offensive swoon, and Araújo and Atuesta will likely be back shortly, and McGuire also may soon be able to start a game and offer a different offensive look. Ramiro Enrique heated up once spring turned to summer in 2024, and when all four of those players are back to full health, the team will once again have a deep roster full of players aggressively competing for minutes.

Óscar Pareja historically has used the first half of a season to find his preferred lineup for the stretch run of the season, and I believe this is another season when he will be playing the long game and seeing what he has at his disposal. The red cards and injuries provided short-term pain in terms of points dropped, but they will likely also provide long-term gain with the view into how the players play in different positions and combinations.

It is a long season, with two cup competitions still to start, in addition to 25 more regular-season games, and summer does not even start until June. I expect that a lot of the issues from the recent run of games will work themselves out with time. We just need to keep our cool and wait for the inevitable Orlando City late season hot streak.

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