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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Toronto FC: Final Score 2-0 as Lions Ride Duncan McGuire’s Brace to Victory

The Lions closed the season with another shutout win on the strength of two more goals by the rookie striker.

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1 year ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC

Duncan McGuire came off the bench in the second half and scored twice to lead Orlando City to a 2-0 road victory over Toronto FC at BMO Field on Decision Day. With the win, the Lions (18-7-9, 63 points) clinched the best road record in MLS (9-4-4) and extended their unbeaten run against Toronto (4-20-4, 16 points) to eight consecutive matches (6-0-2), completing a season sweep of the Reds for the second straight year.

“We’re very happy with the performance,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said after the match. “The players have (had) a great season but the most important part is is coming. It was not easy for us. It’s a difficult place.”

Pareja’s lineup was a heavily rotated one, with backups starting just about all over the field. Mason Stajduhar started in goal behind a back line of Luca Petrasso, Rodrigo Schlegel, Antonio Carlos, and Michael Halliday. Cesar Araujo was joined in central midfield by Felipe behind an attacking line of Gaston Gonzalez, Junior Urso, and Martin Ojeda, with Ramiro Enrique up top.

As expected from the lineup filled with backups, the game didn’t exactly start crisply for Orlando City. There was very little early possession beyond the center circle and defensively the Lions sometimes looked confused in coverage.

The rust of some players was evident early. Petrasso coughed up the ball in his own defensive third just five minutes in but Stajduhar did well to cut off the ensuing cross from Federico Bernardeschi.

The first half-chance for Orlando ended up on Felipe’s foot off a long throw-in by Araujo. The midfielder had a weak shot blocked by the traffic in front of Sean Johnson’s goal.

A minute later, Osei Owusu had a free header in the box off a Kobe Franklin cross, but he couldn’t get it on frame.

Toronto was forced into an early substitution in the 17th minute when Aime Mabika pulled up with what appeared to be a hamstring injury. With no defenders on the bench, Michael Bradley moved from the midfield to the back line and that turned out to be a key factor in the match.

The only shot on target for Orlando in the first half came in the 24th minute. Carlos got his head to a corner kick cross by Ojeda but he generated no power on the shot and it was an easy catch for Johnson. That was the last time in the half Johnson’s goal was even mildly threatened.

Four minutes after that attempt, Schlegel partially whiffed on his attempt to clear a cross into the box but Stajduhar was able to collect it. Bernardeschi then had his shot deflect off of Petrasso for a corner in the 30th minute. Owusu shook free of Schlegel for a free header on the corner kick but again missed the net.

Lorenzo Insigne sent a free kick over the bar in the 37th minute after Carlos brought down Owusu about 25 yards out from goal.

The Lions finally had a good-looking attack going in the 42nd minute when Gonzalez was sent down the left channel. The MLS U22 Initiative winger sent a cross through the top of the box that didn’t come close to a teammate and Toronto broke the other way, winning a corner. The Lions were able to clear the second ball after an unconvincing punch by Stajduhar left the ball near the top of his penalty area.

Insigne fired a shot from distance that Stajduhar stopped in first-half injury time after Urso turned the ball over cheaply in his own half. That was the last look for either side, despite a late corner won by Toronto. The game went scoreless to the break.

The hosts finished with more possession (59.7%-40.3%), shots (7-2), corners (3-1), and passing accuracy (88.3%-80.3%). Each team directed one shot on frame. Toronto was the much more threatening side as Orlando City generated very little offensively, often overcooking direct passes over the top and failing to pick out passes once they approached midfield.

“I think the first half the boys sustained,” Pareja said. “Toronto brought a lot of energy. This allowed us to bring the players that were on the bench who have been more regular in the lineups with more space.”

Pareja made no changes at halftime and Orlando City didn’t look any better to start the second period. Stajduhar was forced to make a save in the opening minute of the half when Insigne got in tight down the left.

Halliday was sent down the right in the 48th minute but he sent a cross straight to Johnson.

Bernardeschi then started creating mischief down the right. He sent a cross through the Orlando area in the 50th minute that Halliday was able to clear. A minute later, Bernardeschi sent a shot right at Stajduhar from the top of the area as the Lions were caught by Toronto’s movement.

Toronto’s Owusu scored in the 52nd minute but the flag came up immediately. The play wasn’t offside by much, but Carlos stepped forward just in time to put the Toronto forward off.

Gonzalez sent a decent cross through the Toronto area in the 54th minute but Ojeda couldn’t quite get there before it skipped through.

Just beyond the hour mark, Pareja made some substitutions and it made a huge difference. McGuire, Mauricio Pereyra, and Ivan Angulo came on for Enrique, Felipe, and Gonzalez.

Carlos made a vital sliding block as Toronto quickly got forward in transition after the game restarted. That was huge, because Orlando took the lead just seconds later.

Stajduhar started the play that gave the Lions the lead with a long ball forward. It was over the midfield and bounced high. McGuire ran onto it and chipped it past Bradley and then sped past the former USMNT man. Once he cleared his last defender, McGuire smashed an unstoppable shot into the upper left corner past Johnson to make it 1-0.

“That strike by Duncan was incredible,” said Stajduhar, who picked up his first career assist on the play. “I hit the long ball and kind of fell off to my left a little bit, saw him take the touch by Bradley, and I started to organize our prevent, our defense. And all of a sudden, I see the ball hit the back of the net. And I was like, ‘Holy crap, what a what a shot.'”

McGuire added a second in the 74th. This time substitute Kyle Smith, who had come on for Petrasso, sent a gorgeous through ball up the left side that was perfectly timed. McGuire again blazed past Bradley and slotted the ball past Johnson to make it 2-0 with his 13th strike of the season, .

“Happy to see Duncan scoring again,” Pareja said. “I think it’s the whole team, not just what happened in the second half, but the work that the boys did in the first half as well was important.”

From that point, Orlando City seemed content to see out the match, playing safely and not getting forward often over the final quarter of an hour. Robin Jansson replaced Schlegel, who appeared to be cramping, in the 78th minute.

In the 81st minute, John Herdman subbed off Bradley for the final time in his professional career. Latif Blessing replaced the former USMNT captain.

Just after the substitution, Orlando had a chance to make it 3-0 when Toronto turned the ball over to Ojeda at the top of the area. The Argentine took the ball into the area but a second touch allowed the defense to close and his shot was blocked.

The last chance for Toronto to pull one back came in the 90th minute after a bad giveaway by Araujo at the top of his penalty area. Sending a pass straight to Insigne, the Uruguayan had to breathe a sigh of relief when the Italian’s shot deflected off the outside of the left post and out for a goal kick.

That was the last decent opportunity of the match and the regular season came to an end with yet another Orlando City road victory.

Toronto maintained its possession advantage at the final whistle (59.5%-40.5%), and the Reds had the edge in shots (12-5), corners (5-1), and passing accuracy (88%-81.5%), with each team putting three shots on target. The Lions simply had one more Duncan McGuire than Toronto FC and that was all the difference in this match.

“Anytime you play anybody in this league, regardless of who it is, what their record is, it’s a tough game,” Stajduhar said. “There’s no real bad team. There’s a lot of parity in this league, so you have to be ready for anything, no matter who you play. Toronto probably had the better of us in the first half but we were able to hold it and take advantage of our opportunities.”

Following the match, both Pareja and Stajduhar dedicated the win to club equipment manager Chafik Tounzit, who was diagnosed with cancer earlier in the week.

And that will do it for the 2023 regular season. The Lions will next play in the postseason against Nashville SC in a best-of-three, first-round series. The dates and times of the matches will be announced soon.

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Orlando City

How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively

How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.

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2 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

The purpose of this image is a table to show how Atlanta United lined up in 2024 (mostly in a 4-2-3-1 but also in one of six other formations).

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Table embedded as an image showing Orlando City doing best in goal differential in 12 games against three-man back lines, second best against four-man back lines, and having played once against a five-man back line (a 1-1 draw).

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy four defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus eight goal differential for the season.

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy three defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus three goal differential for the season.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?

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4 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?

Beat Guzan

Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.

Cartagena is Essential

Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.

Overcome the Past

That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.

That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/21/24

Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.

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7 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship

There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.

Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year

NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.

Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year

Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.

2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled

The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach

FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.

Free Kicks

  • District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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