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How Should We Make Sense of Orlando City’s Defense in 2024?

An evaluation of Orlando City’s defensive players thus far this season.

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5 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Everyone loves offense, no matter the sport. Whether it be baskets, goals, runs, touchdowns, tries, or any other manner of scoring, much more focus is often put on the scoring of points than the defensive side of preventing them. Since I started writing for The Mane Land, I have only written about offense, so just like when at a concert the band likes to give the drummers some love by focusing on them, it is time to shift to looking at Orlando City’s defense thus far this season.

Alas, at a high level, the initial dive into Orlando City’s 2024 defense does not look that great. Opponents have scored 36 goals already this season in only 22 games, as compared to 38 for the entire 2023 regular season (34 games). The chart below, created using data from Opta and fbref.com, compares Orlando City to the rest of MLS in some key defensive areas and the results are, shall we say, less than ideal. One definition before you look, “MLS avg” is the average of every other team except Orlando City.

A few notes on this data:

  • I know you all remember from this math class, but Z-Scores measure how many standard deviations away from the average a value is. For example: if an average is 100 and the standard deviation is 5 then a value of 110 is 2 standard deviations more than the average, which would be a Z-score of 2. In general Z-Scores greater than 2 or less than -2 are pretty rare, and indicate that a value is an outlier as compared to the average.
  • Orlando City is not good at winning balls in the air. But there is some good news. Orlando City’s defenders (47.1% win rate) are at least better than the team’s attacking players (38.4%), but the MLS average win rate for defenders is 57%, and Orlando City’s defenders also rank 29th when compared to every other squad’s defenders. As a reminder there are only 29 MLS teams, so you cannot rank below 29th. Not great, Bob.
  • In general, I do not love xG (expected goals) as a stat. The reason why is that it simply measures the overall percentage of goals per shot from a location on the field, but it does not take into account who is shooting (my 7-year-old son, Brayden’s, xG is the same as Facundo Torres’ from any spot on the field. Until recently, this may have actually been legitimately true for both when they used their right foot.). That said, I do think it is helpful to look at xG as a relative measure of where shots are coming from, or in this case, where Orlando City is allowing shots to be taken from. Orlando City is giving up shots more frequently than other MLS teams from places that, historically, have generated more goals.

I want to go a little more in depth on the two items that show as green on that chart, Fouls committed per 90 minutes and recoveries per 90 minutes. Orlando City is doing well — very well — compared to the rest of MLS in both, but what does that really mean?

Committing fewer fouls than other teams seems like a good thing, but this is where numbers simply do not provide enough context to determine whether it is actually good or not to be a “clean” team and not foul. A few more tactical fouls in the buildup of play and maybe a few of the goals scored against Orlando City do not happen. A few more fouls on attacking players trying to beat an Orlando City player 1-v-1 early in the game, and perhaps they look to pass instead of taking on defenders late in the game. Orlando City has been elite this year at not fouling, but I do not think there is enough data here to conclude whether that is actually helpful.

Similarly, being in the top third of the league in recoveries (of loose balls) per 90 minutes may be another stat that sounds better than it is. Yes, it does show that the team is hustling and getting possession of the ball, and in general in soccer, if you have the ball, the other team cannot score. I do not want to take anything away from the hustle of this team, because it certainly does have a lot of players who give maximum effort, and winning two more loose balls per game than the average team could be the difference in winning and losing a game.

But it could also just mean that your own team is a little careless with the ball and you are one step quicker to get to the ball when it gets loose. I think for this particular stat it is more about hustle than good defense, so a positive but not necessarily an indication of defensive prowess.

So, we have some stats that show that as a team Orlando City has been in the mid to lower part of the league, but why? What is really driving this change from a team that was tied for seventh for fewest goals conceded during the 2023 season?

While goals against come against the entire team, in general, the primary group responsible for goals are those who play in the back. I’ve gone through every match and evaluated who was playing and when, and the chart below I think starts to really tell the tale of why the defense has not prevented as many goals as in previous seasons. (Note: Opponent SoT% is the percentage of shots the opponent put on target.)

I know this chart may have been a lot to look at, but that is also part of the point. The Lions have not had a lot of consistency in their back line this season, with 22 different groupings in the back playing at least one minute and six different groups playing at least 150 minutes. Breaking the list down, we can also see that:

  • The defensive group that has played the most minutes has not even played one-third of the total minutes this season, so there has just not been a lot of game time for any one unit to play together and gel as a group.
  • The defensive group that played approximately one-fifth of the minutes so far this season includes a midfielder, Wilder Cartagena, and was used as part of a back three playing with two wingbacks, not Orlando City’s preferred formation but one the club had to use a lot because of the next item on this list.
  • Robin Jansson has already missed more minutes in 2024 (400) than he did in all of 2023 (180). The man is the captain for a reason, and he certainly would have played most if not all 400 of those minutes had he been available.
  • Smoking Gun Alert: Jansson and David Brekalo have only played 610 minutes together all season (30.8% of all minutes), but in those minutes, their goals against per 90 minutes is only 1.33, which is 25% better (let me repeat, 25% better!) than Orlando City defensive lineups without those two playing at the same time (1.77 Goals Against per 90).

Not every lineup that Orlando City has rolled out with Jansson and Brekalo in the middle has been successful, and they still have only played a pretty low number of minutes together, but at more than 600 minutes played together there is now a good sample size to say that the data backs up that Orlando City’s best defensive lineup should include Jansson and Brekalo.

Another reason it is critical to have two stalwart center backs like Jansson and Brekalo on the field is that Óscar Pareja’s offensive game plan generally includes his outside backs making runs up the field to put pressure on the defense. The three primary outside backs who have played most of the minutes this year — Rafael Santos, Kyle Smith, and Dagur Dan Thórhallsson — all average between 2.0 and 2.2 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes, and next-in-line Mikey Halliday nearly did (1.7) last year as well, though he has been hurt for most of this season, so he has not played very much.

If you are going to have your outside backs bombing forward, which Dagur Dan in particular has aggressively been doing recently (2.9 shot-creating actions per 90 mins during his last five games), then you need to have stability staying home in the back, and both the data and the eye test tilt toward that stability being recommended to come from Jansson and Brekalo.

The outside back pairings do not show significant pluses or minuses based on which two are playing, so I expect that in the upcoming weeks Pareja will roll with who he thinks has the hot foot offensively, which in the last two matches has been Smith and Thórhallsson. Last year’s success primarily came with Santos and Thórhallsson on the outside though, so I expect that as Orlando City pushes for a playoff spot during the final few months of the season, they will still be tinkering a little bit. Constant change in the back has contributed to where Orlando City is in the defensive rankings and in the table, but at some point assuredly the back line will stop a-changin’. My dad will love that reference.

With the transfer window opening up I find it unlikely that Orlando City will look to add on the defensive side; the Lions have gotten through some injuries and the Euros, so barring injury (cross your fingers and knock on wood, thank you), they should hopefully have one consistent group to choose from for every game going forward.

The team took off last season once it really locked into a consistent 11 during the second half of the season, and there is no good defense for why that could not happen again this year.

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Orlando City

2024 Orlando City Season in Review: Jack Lynn

The young striker played a career high in minutes for Orlando City and played in all four
competitions.

Published

10 hours ago

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December 11, 2024

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Jack Lynn joined Orlando City through the 2022 MLS SuperDraft, when he was selected in the first round by the Lions with the No. 18 overall pick out of Notre Dame. He primarily played with OCB during the 2022 and 2023 seasons, scoring 15 goals in 2022 and 19 in 2023 while earning the MLS NEXT Pro MVP for that season. He was a depth player for most of the 2024 season with Orlando City, but late in the season he returned to playing more frequently with OCB, and quickly found his goal-scoring form once again with the Young Lions.

Let’s take a look back at Lynn’s 2024 season.

Statistical Breakdown

After two seasons of double-digit goal scoring in MLS NEXT Pro, the young forward looked to be a leading candidate to serve as the backup to Duncan McGuire, and in the opening few months he was frequently in the game day squad. However, the signing of Luis Muriel meant that he often was an unused substitute as the Lions used McGuire and Muriel as their strikers. Ramiro Enrique then returned from a prolonged absence and took over the starting spot with McGuire as the primary sub off the bench, and in the second half of the season, Lynn did not dress for Orlando City as frequently. He got some starts for OCB and scored four goals and had one assist in his eight games played with the Young Lions.

For Orlando City, Lynn appeared primarily in MLS regular-season games, making 11 appearances with two starts, playing 253 minutes. He took six shots, putting three on target and scoring two goals. He passed at a 66.7% completion percentage but did not have any key passes or assists. On the defensive side deuces were wild, as he won two tackles, made two blocks and had two clearances. He committed five fouls, drew two on the opposition, and was not booked.

Lynn also made one appearance late in the Lions’ final MLS playoff match, coming in for two minutes and recording just one touch of the ball, with no shots, passes attempted or defensive actions, and he did not receive a booking.

During Concacaf Champions Cup play, the Notre Dame product came off the bench in both games against Cavalry FC, playing 21 total minutes without a goal contribution, recording one shot that was off target, completing all three of his passes, and suffering one foul. He did not contribute any defensive actions or get booked.

Lynn participated in one Leagues Cup match, subbing in against CF Montréal. He played 12 minutes and did not have a goal contribution or take any shots, but he completed both of his passes, with one being a key pass. On the defensive side, he made two recoveries and committed one foul, but he wasn’t booked.

Best Game

The 24-year-old striker earned his first-ever starting nod for Orlando City on March 23 against Austin FC, and in the 42nd minute, he scored his first MLS goal. He timed his run perfectly to get wide open at the back post and finished with a powerful header off a cross from Dagur Dan Thórhallsson to give the Lions a 1-0 lead.

Lynn went on to play 73 minutes, completing 10 of his 13 passes (76.9%) and adding one additional off-target shot. He contributed a tackle and a clearance on defense. Orlando City won the game 2-0, making Lynn’s goal in the opening half the game-winner. Head Coach Óscar Pareja said he was pleased with Lynn’s performance, praising him in the post-game press conference:

“(Jack) is a player who patiently has been waiting (for) his opportunity,” Pareja said. “I could say that maybe he should have more games at this point with the way he has performed in the second group and what he has achieved as an individual. He’s very lethal and he has goals. Today, he opened the game. Jack’s discipline and constant effort has paid off and we’re happy.”

2024 Final Grade

With only 288 minutes on the field across all competitions in 2024, Lynn did not play enough minutes to get a grade for the season, receiving an incomplete from The Mane Land staff. Still, he showed that he was capable of contributing when called upon to play first-team minutes.

2025 Outlook

After watching how prolific Lynn was in MLS NEXT Pro in 2023, and then once again this season when he returned to play a few matches with OCB, Lynn has clearly proven that he is above the level of play in that league. In limited minutes at the MLS level, he has shown flashes, but based on the substitution patterns as the season went along, it was clear that he was at best the third option at striker. Orlando City appears to be bringing back both Enrique and McGuire, so while they picked up Lynn’s option for 2025 season, I expect that it will be another season similar to 2024, where he is a depth player who primarily comes in off the bench, if he comes in at all.

I believe that Lynn is an MLS-caliber player, as he is an excellent finisher of the “fox in the box” ilk, but my projection is that 2025 will look similar to 2024 and he will be fighting for minutes off the bench at the MLS level.

Previous Season in Review Articles (Date Posted)

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 12/11/24

Orlando City’s protected players, Orlando Pride roster update, the USMNT is returning to Inter&Co Stadium, and more.

Published

13 hours ago

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December 11, 2024

By

Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. The season might be over, but there’s still plenty of news to be found. I’m glad that we have all the movies and specials to watch since there are no MLS or NWSL matches. There are quite a few that my family watch each year including Elf, Scrooged, and of course, Die Hard. Let me know your favorites in the comments below. Let’s get to the links.

Orlando City Protected List Released

The addition of San Diego SC to MLS means another expansion draft this off-season. Yesterday, Orlando City released its protected players list. There are a total of 19 players on the list, though seven of those are automatically protected due to either Homegrown or Generation Adidas status. San Diego will be able to pick up to five players from across the league, but only one from any given club. There aren’t many surprises in which players Orlando City chose to protect.

Pride End-of-Season Roster Update

Following a historic season that saw the club win both the NWSL Shield and the 2024 NWSL Cup, the Pride have released their end of season roster update. We already knew that Celia, Carrie Lawrence, and Megan Montefusco retired. Given how the club works its contracts, often re-signing players during the season, there weren’t a lot of surprises. Marta and Evelina Duljan were the two players out of contract, and we now know that Duljan won’t be returning, while the club is negotiating a deal that would keep Marta in Orlando.

USMNT Returning to Inter&Co Stadium

The USMNT is heading back to the City Beautiful, as the team will play Costa Rica Jan. 22 at Inter&Co Stadium. Kickoff for the match will be 7 p.m., allowing fans in the Orlando area to make it after work. It will be the second match in Florida, as the Americans will take on Venezuela Jan. 18 at Chase Stadium in Ft. Lauderdale. Pre-sale tickets went on sale Tuesday, and ticket sales for the general public start Friday.

USWNT vs. Brazil

If you were hoping for a rematch of the 2024 Women’s World Cup final between the USWNT and the Brazilian Women’s National Team, you are in luck. The two teams will square off on April 5 and April 8, 2025 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles and at PayPal Park in San Jose, respectively. The match at SoFi Stadium will be the first soccer match played in the venue, which will also host matches for the 2026 World Cup.

Free Kicks

  • It’s no surprise to those of us who work with the Pride regularly that Jackie Maynard, Lucas Medeiros, and the rest of Orlando’s comms staff was named the first-ever NWSL Communications Team of the Year winner. We congratulate Jackie and her team and look forward to continuing to work with a great group of professionals.
  • Take a trip down memory lane with this compilation of Facundo Torres’ goals from 2024.
  • Today, FIFA will award the 2034 World Cup to Saudi Arabia. The circumstances leading up to this “decision” are exactly as forthright, transparent, and without any hint of shenanigans as one expects from FIFA. Give me a minute, my eyes got stuck in the back of my head because of how hard I rolled them.
  • In related news, Norway plans to protest the decision to award the 2034 World Cup to Saudi Arabia and will abstain on the basis that not enough has been done to protect human rights at the event.
  • Orlando City wasn’t the only team to drop its list of protected rosters. Here are the lists for every MLS club.
  • Plenty of teams were in action in the UEFA Champions League Tuesday. Liverpool won its sixth consecutive first round match 1-0 over Girona, and Mbappe scored and got injured in Real Madrid’s 3-2 victory over Atalanta.

That will do it for today. Keep checking in for our Season in Review pieces for both Orlando City and the Orlando Pride. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 12/10/24

Facundo Torres linked with move to Palmeiras, Pride players in FIFPRO Women’s World 11, Amanda Allen suffers injury, and more.

Published

2 days ago

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December 10, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Tuesday, everyone. I hope your week is getting off to a good start and that you’re on top of any Christmas shopping that you still need to do, because I’m just now realizing that I’ve done exactly zero of mine. Alas, the only way out is through. As usual, we have a lot to talk through this morning, so let’s get into the links.

Facundo Torres Linked With Palmeiras

Tom Bogert reported on Monday evening that Orlando City has agreed to a deal with Brazilian club Palmeiras for the transfer of Facundo Torres. While Bogert says the two clubs have reached an agreement, the transfer is still pending as Torres and Palmeiras still need to agree on personal terms. While no price tag was given, the fee would reportedly eclipse the $9.5 million fee that West Bromwich Albion paid for Daryl Dike, which is OCSC’s current outbound transfer record. Torres is the club’s record signing, as he joined from Penarol for roughly $7.5 million, and has been central to the team’s success ever since. We will bring you more from this story as it develops.

Familiar Faces in FIFPRO Women’s World 11

FIFA announced the 2024 FIFPRO Women’s World 11 on Monday and there are two familiar faces in the lineup, as Marta and Barbra Banda were named to the team. This is the third time in Marta’s career that she has been chosen for the award, which is the only global player award decided exclusively by the players themselves. Banda is included in the team for the first time, with this also being the very first time that an African player has made the team. Both players had incredible seasons for the Orlando Pride and were instrumental in the team winning its first two pieces of silverware. Congratulations to both for all their hard work and justified recognition!

Amanda Allen Suffers Injury

The Orlando Pride announced on Monday that forward Amanda Allen has suffered a torn labrum in her right shoulder and will undergo surgery to repair it. As a result, Allen’s loan with USL Super League team Lexington Sporting Club has been terminated, and she has been placed on the season-ending injury list. It’s a tough break for Allen, who became the youngest player to debut for the team back during the 2023 season, as she was getting good minutes and experience on loan. We wish her all the best and hope to see her back on the field soon!

Christian Pulisic Injury News

AC Milan announced on Monday that United States Men’s National Team forward Christian Pulisic has torn a muscle in his right calf, and will spend time on the sideline. The winger went off injured during the team’s game on Friday, and Milan has said that he could be on the shelf until January. While the USMNT won’t play a competitive game until March’s Concacaf Nations League semifinals, the timing is a tough blow for Pulisic, who has had an excellent start to the season with eight goal contributions in Serie A and three UEFA Champions League goals. Here’s hoping that he makes a speedy recovery.

Americans in Midweek Action

There are a number of Americans who will take part in games this week, so make sure you get everything marked down on your calendar. Things get started later today as Auston Trusty, Cameron Carter-Vickers, and Celtic take on Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League, while Ricardo Pepi, Richy Ledezma, Malik Tillman, and PSV Eindhoven face Brest in the same competition. Tomorrow has Yunus Musah and AC Milan hosting Crvena Zvezda in the Champions League, while Weston McKennie, Tim Weah, and Juventus welcome Manchester City to Allianz Stadium. Things then finish up on Friday as Mark McKenzie and Toulouse host St-Etienne in Ligue 1 play.

MLS Transfer Happenings

We have a lot of MLS transfer moves and roster changes to cover this morning. Cruzeiro has declined the purchase option on FC Cincinnati winger Alvaro Barreal, meaning he has returned to the club following the conclusion of his loan. Expansion side San Diego FC has acquired Tomas Angel and a second-round pick in the 2025 MLS SuperDraft from LAFC in exchange for $200,000 in 2025 General Allocation Money (GAM). Austin FC also bought out Gyasi Zardes’ contract, making the 10th-highest scorer in MLS history a free agent.

The Colorado Rapids signed center backs Ian Murphy and Chidozie Awaziem from FC Cincinnati in exchange for $1 million in General Allocation Money. Tom Bogert is also reporting that Bournemouth is finalizing a deal to sign American center back Matai Akinmboni from D.C. United in a deal worth up to $2.5 million. Finally, in the wildest piece of MLS transfer news I’ve seen in awhile, I simply present the following tweet.

Free Kicks

That’s all I have for this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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