Orlando City
How Should We Make Sense of Orlando City’s Defense in 2024?
An evaluation of Orlando City’s defensive players thus far this season.
Everyone loves offense, no matter the sport. Whether it be baskets, goals, runs, touchdowns, tries, or any other manner of scoring, much more focus is often put on the scoring of points than the defensive side of preventing them. Since I started writing for The Mane Land, I have only written about offense, so just like when at a concert the band likes to give the drummers some love by focusing on them, it is time to shift to looking at Orlando City’s defense thus far this season.
Alas, at a high level, the initial dive into Orlando City’s 2024 defense does not look that great. Opponents have scored 36 goals already this season in only 22 games, as compared to 38 for the entire 2023 regular season (34 games). The chart below, created using data from Opta and fbref.com, compares Orlando City to the rest of MLS in some key defensive areas and the results are, shall we say, less than ideal. One definition before you look, “MLS avg” is the average of every other team except Orlando City.
A few notes on this data:
- I know you all remember from this math class, but Z-Scores measure how many standard deviations away from the average a value is. For example: if an average is 100 and the standard deviation is 5 then a value of 110 is 2 standard deviations more than the average, which would be a Z-score of 2. In general Z-Scores greater than 2 or less than -2 are pretty rare, and indicate that a value is an outlier as compared to the average.
- Orlando City is not good at winning balls in the air. But there is some good news. Orlando City’s defenders (47.1% win rate) are at least better than the team’s attacking players (38.4%), but the MLS average win rate for defenders is 57%, and Orlando City’s defenders also rank 29th when compared to every other squad’s defenders. As a reminder there are only 29 MLS teams, so you cannot rank below 29th. Not great, Bob.
- In general, I do not love xG (expected goals) as a stat. The reason why is that it simply measures the overall percentage of goals per shot from a location on the field, but it does not take into account who is shooting (my 7-year-old son, Brayden’s, xG is the same as Facundo Torres’ from any spot on the field. Until recently, this may have actually been legitimately true for both when they used their right foot.). That said, I do think it is helpful to look at xG as a relative measure of where shots are coming from, or in this case, where Orlando City is allowing shots to be taken from. Orlando City is giving up shots more frequently than other MLS teams from places that, historically, have generated more goals.
I want to go a little more in depth on the two items that show as green on that chart, Fouls committed per 90 minutes and recoveries per 90 minutes. Orlando City is doing well — very well — compared to the rest of MLS in both, but what does that really mean?
Committing fewer fouls than other teams seems like a good thing, but this is where numbers simply do not provide enough context to determine whether it is actually good or not to be a “clean” team and not foul. A few more tactical fouls in the buildup of play and maybe a few of the goals scored against Orlando City do not happen. A few more fouls on attacking players trying to beat an Orlando City player 1-v-1 early in the game, and perhaps they look to pass instead of taking on defenders late in the game. Orlando City has been elite this year at not fouling, but I do not think there is enough data here to conclude whether that is actually helpful.
Similarly, being in the top third of the league in recoveries (of loose balls) per 90 minutes may be another stat that sounds better than it is. Yes, it does show that the team is hustling and getting possession of the ball, and in general in soccer, if you have the ball, the other team cannot score. I do not want to take anything away from the hustle of this team, because it certainly does have a lot of players who give maximum effort, and winning two more loose balls per game than the average team could be the difference in winning and losing a game.
But it could also just mean that your own team is a little careless with the ball and you are one step quicker to get to the ball when it gets loose. I think for this particular stat it is more about hustle than good defense, so a positive but not necessarily an indication of defensive prowess.
So, we have some stats that show that as a team Orlando City has been in the mid to lower part of the league, but why? What is really driving this change from a team that was tied for seventh for fewest goals conceded during the 2023 season?
While goals against come against the entire team, in general, the primary group responsible for goals are those who play in the back. I’ve gone through every match and evaluated who was playing and when, and the chart below I think starts to really tell the tale of why the defense has not prevented as many goals as in previous seasons. (Note: Opponent SoT% is the percentage of shots the opponent put on target.)
I know this chart may have been a lot to look at, but that is also part of the point. The Lions have not had a lot of consistency in their back line this season, with 22 different groupings in the back playing at least one minute and six different groups playing at least 150 minutes. Breaking the list down, we can also see that:
- The defensive group that has played the most minutes has not even played one-third of the total minutes this season, so there has just not been a lot of game time for any one unit to play together and gel as a group.
- The defensive group that played approximately one-fifth of the minutes so far this season includes a midfielder, Wilder Cartagena, and was used as part of a back three playing with two wingbacks, not Orlando City’s preferred formation but one the club had to use a lot because of the next item on this list.
- Robin Jansson has already missed more minutes in 2024 (400) than he did in all of 2023 (180). The man is the captain for a reason, and he certainly would have played most if not all 400 of those minutes had he been available.
- Smoking Gun Alert: Jansson and David Brekalo have only played 610 minutes together all season (30.8% of all minutes), but in those minutes, their goals against per 90 minutes is only 1.33, which is 25% better (let me repeat, 25% better!) than Orlando City defensive lineups without those two playing at the same time (1.77 Goals Against per 90).
Not every lineup that Orlando City has rolled out with Jansson and Brekalo in the middle has been successful, and they still have only played a pretty low number of minutes together, but at more than 600 minutes played together there is now a good sample size to say that the data backs up that Orlando City’s best defensive lineup should include Jansson and Brekalo.
Another reason it is critical to have two stalwart center backs like Jansson and Brekalo on the field is that Óscar Pareja’s offensive game plan generally includes his outside backs making runs up the field to put pressure on the defense. The three primary outside backs who have played most of the minutes this year — Rafael Santos, Kyle Smith, and Dagur Dan Thórhallsson — all average between 2.0 and 2.2 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes, and next-in-line Mikey Halliday nearly did (1.7) last year as well, though he has been hurt for most of this season, so he has not played very much.
If you are going to have your outside backs bombing forward, which Dagur Dan in particular has aggressively been doing recently (2.9 shot-creating actions per 90 mins during his last five games), then you need to have stability staying home in the back, and both the data and the eye test tilt toward that stability being recommended to come from Jansson and Brekalo.
The outside back pairings do not show significant pluses or minuses based on which two are playing, so I expect that in the upcoming weeks Pareja will roll with who he thinks has the hot foot offensively, which in the last two matches has been Smith and Thórhallsson. Last year’s success primarily came with Santos and Thórhallsson on the outside though, so I expect that as Orlando City pushes for a playoff spot during the final few months of the season, they will still be tinkering a little bit. Constant change in the back has contributed to where Orlando City is in the defensive rankings and in the table, but at some point assuredly the back line will stop a-changin’. My dad will love that reference.
With the transfer window opening up I find it unlikely that Orlando City will look to add on the defensive side; the Lions have gotten through some injuries and the Euros, so barring injury (cross your fingers and knock on wood, thank you), they should hopefully have one consistent group to choose from for every game going forward.
The team took off last season once it really locked into a consistent 11 during the second half of the season, and there is no good defense for why that could not happen again this year.
Lion Links
Lion Links: 10/29/24
MLS playoff results, USWNT prepares for Argentina, Ballon d’Or winners announced, and more.
Happy Tuesday, everyone! It was a great weekend, as Orlando City got its playoff campaign off to a strong start. We have a busy week ahead of us with the United States Women’s National Team in action, the Orlando Pride playing their last match of the regular season, and the Lions traveling to North Carolina for Game 2 against Charlotte FC. As usual, there’s plenty to discuss this morning, so let’s jump right in.
Keeping Up With the MLS Playoffs
The playoffs continued on Monday night, which means we have two matches to catch up on. The early fixture saw FC Cincinnati pick up a 1-0 win over New York City FC at TQL Stadium. Cincinnati had the better of things for most of the game with 22 shots (seven on target) to NYCFC’s six (two on target). In the end, Yamil Asad’s goal in the 51st minute was the decider, and NYCFC defender Tayvon Gray’s red card in stoppage time adds an extra layer of intrigue for Game 2 in New York on Saturday. The late match delivered the first scoreless draw of the postseason as the Seattle Sounders battled the Houston Dynamo to a 0-0 result in regulation, with the Sounders advancing 5-4 on penalties. To make matters worse for the Dynamo, Adalberto Carrasquilla was sent off in the 66th minute so they’ll need to find a way to keep their season alive without him as the series now shifts to Houston.
Previewing the USWNT Friendly Against Argentina
The United States Women’s National Team is having a good international window so far, starting things off with a pair of 3-1 victories over Iceland. The final game of the window will take place tomorrow when the U.S. faces Argentina in Louisville. It will be just the sixth meeting between the two teams, with the USWNT winning all five previous games, including the most recent one during the 2024 Concacaf W Gold Cup. Argentina is managed by German Portanova, who lines the team up in either a 4-4-2 or a 4-3-3. Accordingly, the idea is to stay compact and be difficult to play through, although things have a tendency to devolve after giving up a goal, which was the case during the USWNT’s 4-0 triumph in the last match between the two sides. It’s a game the Yanks should win, and win comfortably.
Ballon d’Or Winners Announced
The Ballon d’Or ceremony took place on Monday evening in Paris, and there weren’t too many surprises in how the awards were doled out. Manchester City midfielder Rodri took home the award on the men’s side, following a year in which his club team won the Premier League and his Spanish side won the 2024 European Championship. Barcelona’s Aitana Bonmati won the women’s award for the second straight year after helping her side win its second consecutive Champions League title. Orlando Pride forward Barbra finished 12th in the voting for the award.
Lamine Yamal won the Kopa Trophy for the best player under the age of 21, while Emiliano Martinez was named the best goalkeeper in the world for the second year running.
Manchester United Sacks Erik ten Hag
Manchester United announced on Monday morning that the club has fired Erik ten Hag, with Ruud van Nistelrooy named interim manager. The Red Devils were in the midst of a poor run of results to start the season, with just four wins from 13 matches played. A 2-1 defeat to West Ham on Sunday seems to have been the final straw, with the result leaving United 14th in the Premier League on 11 points after nine matches. While van Nistelrooy has taken over on an interim basis, reports have emerged that Sporting CP’s Ruben Amorim is the leading candidate to get the permanent gig, with United having also reportedly asked about the availability of Brentford manager Thomas Frank.
Free Kicks
- Emma Hayes was named 2024 Women’s Coach of the Year.
- Italian forward Mario Balotelli has joined Genoa on a free transfer.
- The NWSL Disciplinary Committee has issued additional suspensions to Chicago Red Stars forward Ludmila and Washington Spirit forward Rosemonde Kouassi.
That’s all I have for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Charlotte FC: Player Grades and Man of the Match
How did your favorite Lions perform in Orlando City’s 2-0 win over Charlotte FC?
Orlando City got its 2024 playoff campaign off to a good start with a 2-0 win over Charlotte FC. The Lions can advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals for the second consecutive year with one more win in the series. It was a solid overall team performance, though some stood out more than others.
Let’s take a look at the individual performances in this critical victory for the boys in purple.
Starters
GK, Pedro Gallese, 6.5 — Gallese didn’t have much to do in this game because Charlotte only managed to put two of its shots on target and the Lions’ number one stopped both. He touched the ball 30 times in 90 minutes while completing 78.3% of his 23 passes, including five of his 10 long balls. There’s not much bad to say about his performance and he recorded another clean sheet.
D, Rafael Santos, 6.5 — Santos was excellent in this game, recording a team-high 83 touches. The left back completed 86.7% of his 60 passes, including two key passes, two of his five long balls, and four of his nine crosses. His cross in the 32rd minute was headed out, but only to Torres, who put it in to give the Lions a 1-0 lead. He also took one shot that was off target. Defensively, Santos recorded two tackles, an interception, and four clearances.
D, Robin Jansson, 6 — Jansson had a solid performance, recording 61 touches on the night. He had an interception, a blocked shot, and four clearances but was fortunate in the 70th minute when he was out-muscled by Patrick Agyemang, allowing the substitute to get a free header that forced Gallese into a good save. Going forward, the center back completed 98% of his 51 passes, including both long balls. While he played well, I lowered his grade a little for nearly conceding a goal, although some (including Jansson) might say he was fouled on the play.
D, Rodrigo Schlegel, 6.5 — Schlegel has had an up-and-down season, but the center back was excellent in this game. He recorded 67 touches, a block, and a team-high eight clearances. Offensively, the center back completed 94.3% of his 53 passes, including a key pass and seven of his eight long balls. He hit a volley well in the 64th minute that forced Kristijan Kahlina into a save and had a second shot that went off target.
D, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, 6 — Thorhallsson caused headaches for Charlotte on the right side in this game, recording 44 touches and completing 90.3% of his 31 passes, including two key passes and his lone cross. He also took a shot, but it was off target. Defensively, he added a tackle, an interception, and a clearance before coming off for Kyle Smith in the 78th minute in a defensive change.
MF, Wilder Cartagena, 6.5 — Cartagena recorded 81 touches in this game while completing 89.2% of his team-high 65 passes, including a key pass and three of his seven long balls. He also took one off-target shot. Defensively, the defensive midfielder recorded three tackles, one interception, and two clearances.
MF, Cesar Araujo, 6.5 — Similar to Cartagena, you can’t say much negative about Araujo’s performance. He touched the ball 70 times and completed 91.4% of his 58 passes, including five of his seven long balls. Both of his shots were off target, but his excellent long ball in the 76th minute helped Ivan Angulo set up the second goal. He nearly had an assist with a beautiful ball for Ramiro Enrique in the 20th minute, but the striker missed wide and was ruled offside.
MF, Ivan Angulo, 6.5 — Angulo made the most of his 49 touches in this game, completing 94.4% of his 36 passes, including a key pass and his lone long ball. However, both of his cross attempts were incomplete. His biggest impact on the game came in the 76th minute when he used his speed to win a ball down the wing and played Martin Ojeda into the box for the second goal. Defensively, Angulo recorded a tackle, an interception, and a clearance before being replaced by Nico Lodeiro in the 88th minute.
MF, Martin Ojeda, 6.5 — Ojeda only touched the ball 36 times this game, the fewest of the attacking midfielders. He completed 82.6% of his 23 passes, including a key pass, two of his five crosses, and two of his three long balls. His biggest moment came in the 76th minute when he received a pass from Angulo in the box and drilled his second touch past Kahlina to put the game away. His key pass set up a golden opportunity for Facundo Torres in the 54th minute. The attacker was taken out right after the goal, making way for Luis Muriel in the 78th minute.
MF, Facundo Torres, 7 (MotM) — It was a record-tying and breaking night for Torres, who finished the game with 69 touches. He completed 91.5% of his 47 passes, including three key passes, two of his six crosses, and all five of his long balls. Three of his four shots were on target, and he did well to bring down a cleared cross before volleying it in to give the Lions a 1-0 lead. The goal tied Dom Dwyer for the most goals in club history (46) when considering both USL and MLS eras, and he set a new MLS-era record for most goals in a single season (19) across all competitions. Torres came off to a standing ovation in the 88th minute for David Brekalo.
F, Ramiro Enrqiue, 5.5 — It was a tough night for Enrique, who should have had at least one goal. He touched the ball 21 times and completed five of his 10 passes, including a key pass. He only put one of his four shots on target, missing a golden chance in the 20th minute — even though he was ruled offside — and missed the target when free on goal in the 50th minute. It was a forgettable night for the striker, who was replaced by Duncan McGuire in the 61st minute.
Substitutes
F, Duncan McGuire (61’), 5.5 — Similar to Enrique, McGuire couldn’t really find his feet in his 29 minutes of action. He touched the ball 17 times and completed eight of his 10 passes, including a key pass. He had a great chance to get behind the back line in stoppage time but couldn’t control the ball.
F, Luis Muriel (78’), 5 — Muriel came on for Ojeda right after the midfielder made it 2-0 and never really got involved in the game. He only touched the ball nine times in 12 minutes, completing 62.5% of his eight passes. He didn’t help to create any shots, nor did he take any of his own.
D, Kyle Smith (78’), 5.5 — Smith came on in the 78th minute for Thorhallsson for defensive help. The right back touched the ball nine times and completed 66.7% of his six passes. He also didn’t record any defensive statistics in the 12 minutes on the field, but he did help see out the final minutes of the match with some strong play to maintain possession.
MF, Nico Lodeiro (88’), N/A — Lodeiro was one of the more effective substitutes, though he was only on for the final minutes and didn’t play long enough to warrant a grade. Replacing Angulo, the midfielder touched the ball seven times and completed 85.7% of his seven passes.
D, David Brekalo (88’), N/A — Brekalo came on in the 88th minute for Torres as the Lions went to three center backs to see out the game. He only touched the ball five times and completed two of his three passes while recording a clearance, which was his purpose for entering.
That’s how I saw the individual performances in tonight’s win for the Lions. Let us know how you saw the game in the comments and don’t forget to vote for your Man of the Match.
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Charlotte FC: Five Takeaways
Here’s what we learned from Orlando City’s 2-0 home playoff victory over Charlotte FC.
Orlando City kicked off its run in the 2024 Major League Soccer playoffs with a first-round opening victory at home in front of a fiery crowd by a score of 2-0 over Charlotte FC. Much had been made about the contrasting styles of play between the two sides heading into the match, with Orlando sporting one of the best attacks in all of MLS since league play resumed after the Leagues Cup break and Charlotte boasting the second-best defense by goals allowed throughout the regular season.
The Lions ultimately imposed their will on the match and what follows are our five takeaways from a game that Orlando essentially controlled from the opening kick.
Wasteful Opportunities Early
For the first 15 to 20 minutes of the game, Orlando missed multiple golden chances that could have come back to bite the Lions in the behind. Multiple Lions had decent looks on goal and shot wide, high, or directly at Charlotte goalkeeper Kristijan Kahlina. Ramiro Enrique’s final touch seemed just a tad off in the early portion of the match, and Orlando failed to find the end of a few strong crosses across the box from Martin Ojeda and Rafael Santos. Luckily, none of the early miscues mattered much at the end of the game, but if the Lions are lucky enough to advance to the next round and a single-elimination game, lacking sharpness could lead to an unfortunate exit from the playoffs.
Torres Breaks Through
It was always going to be Designated Player Facundo Torres who found the net first for Orlando City, because of course, it had to be. Torres grew into the game over the first 30 minutes of the match, and for a few moments I thought he might find the first assist of the game from a series of short corner set pieces. Instead, Torres found paydirt in the 32nd minute as he was the first player to arrive at poor attempt at a clearance from the Charlotte back line following a dangerous cross sent in by Santos. El Cuervo quickly pulled the trigger, blasting the ball off the bottom of the crossbar and in for the first goal of the game.
Torres has been chasing records all year long, and with that goal, he became the all-time single-season goal scorer in Orlando City history with 19 across all competitions. It was also his third goal against Charlotte in 2024, as he scored in each of the three meetings between the teams this season. Continuing that trend was an important step toward getting the series started on the right foot.
Ojeda Extends the Lead
The strong play of Designated Player Martin Ojeda has been one of the main reasons that the OCSC attack has been so potent over the last two months. In the first playoff match against Charlotte, Ojeda continued his strong run of form and would/should have recorded at least one assist in the first half if the team could have been a tad more clinical. Nonetheless, Ojeda left his mark on the match in the 76th minute. Running on fumes, Ojeda had a ball played past him by Cesar Araujo on the sideline and wisely made no attempt on the ball as he was in an offside position. His non-action allowed Ivan Angulo to streak down the sideline at breakneck speed to reach the ball, and once he did, Ojeda had recycled into an onside position. He then took a crafty pass from Angulo and ripped a shot inside the near post past Kahlina.
The goal gave Orlando a bit of breathing room as the game entered its final moments and also marked the first time in club history that the team had scored more than one goal in a playoff match.
Defensive Cohesiveness
Much will be made over the coming week about the Orlando City attack, and rightly so, but an understated piece of what made the Lions so successful in their first game of the 2024 playoffs was the cohesiveness demonstrated across the back line and defensive midfield. Having Wilder Cartagena back in the lineup surely did not hurt things from a defensive standpoint, but I felt that the entire back line communicated effectively and covered one another quite well throughout the match. Orlando did well in the possession department during the first half, and not many questions were asked of the defense, but in the first 20 minutes of the second half, the defense stepped up multiple times to snuff out any remote possibilities that could have generated hope for the visitors. They say that defense wins championships, and Orlando showed just how steadfast its defense could be.
Playoff Clean Sheet
Orlando goalkeeper Pedro Gallese has now recorded three clean sheets across three first-round playoff matches going back to the implementation of the new best-of-three format that started last year. Charlotte was only able to put two of its nine attempts on target, but regardless of the volume, Gallese did well to position himself at the right place and at the right time. I thought Gallese did a particularly good job of being decisive on the night and chose his moments wisely to come off his line to collect the ball, or at a minimum, get a glove on it to disrupt Charlotte’s attacking pieces. A playoff clean sheet should always be celebrated, and for me, it was the cherry on top of a very satisfying sundae.
That is what stood out to me most from a complete performance by Orlando City in the first matchup against Charlotte FC in this best-of-three series. Was there anything else in particular that caught your eye throughout the match? Let us know in the comments below and as always, vamos Orlando!
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