We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.

The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:

• Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
• Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
• At Columbus (1.96, second)
• At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
• Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
• At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
• Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)

As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.

In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.

In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)

New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.

A few takeaways from this chart:

• I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
• That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
• Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
• Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.

During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:

Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.

Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.

No, that loss still stunk.

Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:

That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):

Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.

I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.

While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.

It’s not often that I’m able to revisit one of my previous articles. The season moves on and so do we in our coverage. However, with the international break upon us, I wanted to see what I got right and wrong in my proposed lineup changes from last week. I also want to see what I missed on completely, and whether Oscar Pareja might have done something better. Let’s take a look at how I did.

The Defense

I suggested that Luca Petrasso get a chance to start, given that neither Rafael Santos nor Kyle Smith had been playing particularly well as of late. That didn’t happen as Santos got the start and Smith came on for him in the 82nd minute. Once again, neither Santos nor Smith covered themselves in glory. Fortunately, their play didn’t allow Nashville SC to score, though it was a close thing a few times.

The change that Pareja made that I didn’t predict was giving Rodrigo Schlegel the start over David Brekalo. It was a decision that only lasted through the first half as Brekalo came on to start the second half. Schlegel received the lowest grade on the the team in our Player Grades and Man of the Match. I’m not certain if Brekalo needed an extra 45 minutes of rest before playing, but having Schlegel start wasn’t a great decision.

The Midfield

I was correct that Pareja did not sit Facundo Torres — and thank goodness he didn’t — nor Ivan Angulo. I then suggested that Martin Ojeda not get the start in favor of Nico Lodeiro. I’m glad Pareja didn’t take that suggestion. Ojeda had an excellent match. His performance was nearly Man-of-the-Match level if not for Torres’ earning it with a brace. He assisted on Angulo’s goal and started the attack on Torres’ first goal. I was wrong about sitting Ojeda.

I’m not going to take any credit for saying the Cesar Araujo and Wilder Cartagena would start. My cat could have predicted that. I will mention that I was correct in that Angulo rebounded with a good match, including scoring the first goal. We’ll never know what Lodeiro would have done with the start, but he did play well off the bench, helping set up the final goal.

The Strikers

This one is a bit of a push. I suggested that Duncan McGuire get the start over Ramiro Enrique. That didn’t happen, and to be fair to Enrique, he had a pretty good match. McGuire came on in the 68th minute, providing some energy to the attack and getting the assist on Torres’ second goal. Looking back, I’m not certain that it matters which striker started in this one, though McGuire did have a goal contribution. At this point, I just want one — or both — of them to score at least one goal.

Never let it be said I’m not willing to own up to my mistakes. I still think this team isn’t playing to its full ability, but I hope that comes down the stretch. Vamos Orlando.

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I hope this week has been going smoothly for you as we gear up for plenty of club and international soccer over the next few days. I’ve been getting plenty of reading done when not working and am looking forward to another trip to my local bookstore this weekend. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Orlando City Partners With Sporting CP

Orlando City and Portuguese club Sporting CP have officially agreed to be technical partners, meaning they will share information and methodologies in regards to player development, recruitment, and more. The two clubs have had links before, with former Lions Nani and Uri Rosell joining Orlando from Sporting. The two clubs will also organize training periods for academy players to train with the other club in a different environment. Orlando City Vice President of Soccer Operations and Technical Director Ricardo Moreira spoke on how this partnership will help both clubs moving forward.

“This is an agreement that will foster a great exchange of information for the betterment of both sets of players and coaches, setting both clubs up for even more success in the future. The culture within both clubs is very similar and we’re excited to see the benefits this partnership brings for everyone involved, especially in an academy level.”

Barbra Banda Nominated for 2024 Women’s Ballon d’Or

Orlando Pride forward Barbra Banda was one of 30 players nominated for this year’s Women’s Ballon d’Or, which is one of the top honors in women’s soccer. Since joining the Pride in March, Banda has scored 12 goals in 14 matches this season and is the first NWSL player to score 10 goals in her first 10 league appearances. The 24-year-old also had four goals and an assist with Zambia in this summer’s Olympics.

She’s joined on the nomination list by five United States Women’s National Team players: Alyssa Naeher, Sophia Smith, Malory Swanson, Trinity Rodman, and Lindsey Horan. I’m not surprised to see as many players who play for European clubs nominated, but I do think San Diego Wave defender Naomi Girma was snubbed. The winner will be announced in Paris on Oct. 28.

Orlando Pride Prepare for Chicago

After a dominant 2-0 win at home against NJ/NY Gotham FC, the Orlando Pride will hit the road for a match against the Chicago Red Stars on Sunday. It’s the second match between them this season, with the two sides splitting the points in a 1-1 draw in Orlando on March 29. The Pride sit atop the NWSL standings, and it should be a tough road game against a Chicago side fighting to keep its playoff position. Head Coach Seb Hines spoke on the difficulty of playing in Chicago, as well as how the Pride have been able to score in different ways this year.

Croix Bethune Out for the Season

Washington Spirit midfielder Croix Bethune suffered a torn meniscus, reportedly while throwing out the first pitch at a Washington Nationals game, and will miss the remainder of the NWSL season as a result. It’s brutal news for Bethune, who was the clear frontrunner for NWSL Rookie of the Year and just an assist shy of breaking the NWSL record of 10. She finishes with five goals and 10 assists in her rookie campaign, and also made the trip to Paris this summer for the Olympics with the USWNT. Her injury is also a blow to the Spirit’s NWSL Shield aspirations, as they are currently six points behind the Pride and now without one of their best playmakers.

Free Kicks

• Enjoy the sights and sounds from the Pride’s rainy win over Gotham. The video exemplifies just how fun the Pride have been to watch this year.

• Carlos Bocanegra is no longer the vice president and technical director of Atlanta United, with President and CEO Garth Lagerwey taking over in an interim capacity for the rest of the season.
• Sporting Kansas City transferred American defender Kayden Pierre to Genk in Belgium’s top flight.
• The U.S. Women’s U-20 National Team won 2-0 against Morocco in the FIFA U-20 Women’s World Cup, with the Pride’s Ally Lemos coming off the bench in the second half. The team’s last group stage game will be on Saturday against Paraguay.

• For the first time since 2003, neither Cristiano Ronaldo nor Lionel Messi were nominated for the Ballon d’Or.
• Nigerian forward Victor Osimhen has joined Galatasaray on loan from Napoli after being left off the Italian club’s 23-man roster for the Serie A season. Galatasaray has won all three of its matches so far this Super Lig season and will compete in the Europa League.
• AS Roma added 35-year-old center back Mats Hummels on a free transfer to bolster its defense.

That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!