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How Should We Make Sense of Orlando City’s Defense in 2024?

An evaluation of Orlando City’s defensive players thus far this season.

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6 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Everyone loves offense, no matter the sport. Whether it be baskets, goals, runs, touchdowns, tries, or any other manner of scoring, much more focus is often put on the scoring of points than the defensive side of preventing them. Since I started writing for The Mane Land, I have only written about offense, so just like when at a concert the band likes to give the drummers some love by focusing on them, it is time to shift to looking at Orlando City’s defense thus far this season.

Alas, at a high level, the initial dive into Orlando City’s 2024 defense does not look that great. Opponents have scored 36 goals already this season in only 22 games, as compared to 38 for the entire 2023 regular season (34 games). The chart below, created using data from Opta and fbref.com, compares Orlando City to the rest of MLS in some key defensive areas and the results are, shall we say, less than ideal. One definition before you look, “MLS avg” is the average of every other team except Orlando City.

A few notes on this data:

  • I know you all remember from this math class, but Z-Scores measure how many standard deviations away from the average a value is. For example: if an average is 100 and the standard deviation is 5 then a value of 110 is 2 standard deviations more than the average, which would be a Z-score of 2. In general Z-Scores greater than 2 or less than -2 are pretty rare, and indicate that a value is an outlier as compared to the average.
  • Orlando City is not good at winning balls in the air. But there is some good news. Orlando City’s defenders (47.1% win rate) are at least better than the team’s attacking players (38.4%), but the MLS average win rate for defenders is 57%, and Orlando City’s defenders also rank 29th when compared to every other squad’s defenders. As a reminder there are only 29 MLS teams, so you cannot rank below 29th. Not great, Bob.
  • In general, I do not love xG (expected goals) as a stat. The reason why is that it simply measures the overall percentage of goals per shot from a location on the field, but it does not take into account who is shooting (my 7-year-old son, Brayden’s, xG is the same as Facundo Torres’ from any spot on the field. Until recently, this may have actually been legitimately true for both when they used their right foot.). That said, I do think it is helpful to look at xG as a relative measure of where shots are coming from, or in this case, where Orlando City is allowing shots to be taken from. Orlando City is giving up shots more frequently than other MLS teams from places that, historically, have generated more goals.

I want to go a little more in depth on the two items that show as green on that chart, Fouls committed per 90 minutes and recoveries per 90 minutes. Orlando City is doing well — very well — compared to the rest of MLS in both, but what does that really mean?

Committing fewer fouls than other teams seems like a good thing, but this is where numbers simply do not provide enough context to determine whether it is actually good or not to be a “clean” team and not foul. A few more tactical fouls in the buildup of play and maybe a few of the goals scored against Orlando City do not happen. A few more fouls on attacking players trying to beat an Orlando City player 1-v-1 early in the game, and perhaps they look to pass instead of taking on defenders late in the game. Orlando City has been elite this year at not fouling, but I do not think there is enough data here to conclude whether that is actually helpful.

Similarly, being in the top third of the league in recoveries (of loose balls) per 90 minutes may be another stat that sounds better than it is. Yes, it does show that the team is hustling and getting possession of the ball, and in general in soccer, if you have the ball, the other team cannot score. I do not want to take anything away from the hustle of this team, because it certainly does have a lot of players who give maximum effort, and winning two more loose balls per game than the average team could be the difference in winning and losing a game.

But it could also just mean that your own team is a little careless with the ball and you are one step quicker to get to the ball when it gets loose. I think for this particular stat it is more about hustle than good defense, so a positive but not necessarily an indication of defensive prowess.

So, we have some stats that show that as a team Orlando City has been in the mid to lower part of the league, but why? What is really driving this change from a team that was tied for seventh for fewest goals conceded during the 2023 season?

While goals against come against the entire team, in general, the primary group responsible for goals are those who play in the back. I’ve gone through every match and evaluated who was playing and when, and the chart below I think starts to really tell the tale of why the defense has not prevented as many goals as in previous seasons. (Note: Opponent SoT% is the percentage of shots the opponent put on target.)

I know this chart may have been a lot to look at, but that is also part of the point. The Lions have not had a lot of consistency in their back line this season, with 22 different groupings in the back playing at least one minute and six different groups playing at least 150 minutes. Breaking the list down, we can also see that:

  • The defensive group that has played the most minutes has not even played one-third of the total minutes this season, so there has just not been a lot of game time for any one unit to play together and gel as a group.
  • The defensive group that played approximately one-fifth of the minutes so far this season includes a midfielder, Wilder Cartagena, and was used as part of a back three playing with two wingbacks, not Orlando City’s preferred formation but one the club had to use a lot because of the next item on this list.
  • Robin Jansson has already missed more minutes in 2024 (400) than he did in all of 2023 (180). The man is the captain for a reason, and he certainly would have played most if not all 400 of those minutes had he been available.
  • Smoking Gun Alert: Jansson and David Brekalo have only played 610 minutes together all season (30.8% of all minutes), but in those minutes, their goals against per 90 minutes is only 1.33, which is 25% better (let me repeat, 25% better!) than Orlando City defensive lineups without those two playing at the same time (1.77 Goals Against per 90).

Not every lineup that Orlando City has rolled out with Jansson and Brekalo in the middle has been successful, and they still have only played a pretty low number of minutes together, but at more than 600 minutes played together there is now a good sample size to say that the data backs up that Orlando City’s best defensive lineup should include Jansson and Brekalo.

Another reason it is critical to have two stalwart center backs like Jansson and Brekalo on the field is that Óscar Pareja’s offensive game plan generally includes his outside backs making runs up the field to put pressure on the defense. The three primary outside backs who have played most of the minutes this year — Rafael Santos, Kyle Smith, and Dagur Dan Thórhallsson — all average between 2.0 and 2.2 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes, and next-in-line Mikey Halliday nearly did (1.7) last year as well, though he has been hurt for most of this season, so he has not played very much.

If you are going to have your outside backs bombing forward, which Dagur Dan in particular has aggressively been doing recently (2.9 shot-creating actions per 90 mins during his last five games), then you need to have stability staying home in the back, and both the data and the eye test tilt toward that stability being recommended to come from Jansson and Brekalo.

The outside back pairings do not show significant pluses or minuses based on which two are playing, so I expect that in the upcoming weeks Pareja will roll with who he thinks has the hot foot offensively, which in the last two matches has been Smith and Thórhallsson. Last year’s success primarily came with Santos and Thórhallsson on the outside though, so I expect that as Orlando City pushes for a playoff spot during the final few months of the season, they will still be tinkering a little bit. Constant change in the back has contributed to where Orlando City is in the defensive rankings and in the table, but at some point assuredly the back line will stop a-changin’. My dad will love that reference.

With the transfer window opening up I find it unlikely that Orlando City will look to add on the defensive side; the Lions have gotten through some injuries and the Euros, so barring injury (cross your fingers and knock on wood, thank you), they should hopefully have one consistent group to choose from for every game going forward.

The team took off last season once it really locked into a consistent 11 during the second half of the season, and there is no good defense for why that could not happen again this year.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/14/25

Orlando City begins preseason, Orlando Pride sign defender Zara Chavoshi, MLS transfer roundup, and more.

Published

16 hours ago

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January 14, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Tuesday, everyone! It’s been a busy few days for me and sadly I won’t be getting much of a break as my work schedule continues to be packed this week. As is always the case, we have plenty of things to talk through this morning, so let’s jump into today’s links.

Orlando City Opens Preseason

It seems like the 2024 season just came to a close, but Orlando City had its first day of preseason training on Monday. The Lions didn’t quite have everyone in attendance, as Shak Mohammed, Jack Lynn, and Ivan Angulo were not present, while Duncan McGuire and Mason Stajduhar trained off to the side. It was a good first day back though, as the team got its first taste of life without Facundo Torres. One of the big talking points of this preseason will be how the team replaces Facu, with the upcoming preseason games set to evaluate where the team stands.

Orlando Pride Sign Zara Chavoshi

The Orlando Pride announced Monday that the team has signed defender Zara Chavoshi to a one-year contract. The 22-year-old spent the last four years with Wake Forest, where she played both center back and right back for the Demon Deacons. She helped the team advance to the championship of the NCAA College Cup, where the team fell to North Carolina. While she may not play too much during the 2025 season, this is a signing that should provide solid defensive depth while the team evaluates whether or not to award her a longer deal in the future.

MLS Transfer Roundup

Monday saw a slew of MLS teams not named Orlando City making transfer moves, and that means we have a lot to catch up on. We start with confirmation that the San Jose Earthquakes have signed Josef Martinez. Sporting Kansas City decided to continue the trend of signing forwards, as it announced the acquisition of free agent striker Mason Toye, who most recently played for the Portland Timbers. San Diego FC has signed midfielder Onni Valakari on loan from Pafos FC of the Cypriot first division. LAFC has announced the signing of midfielder Odin Thiago Holm on loan from Celtic. Finally, Toronto FC has sold winger Thiago Andrade to Cerezo Osaka of the J1 League.

Americans in Midweek Action

There are a ton of American players who will be taking part in games this week, and there are some good matchups to look forward to. Things get going today as Christian Pulisic, Yunus Musah and AC Milan face Como in Serie A play, while Weston McKennie, Tim Weah, and Juventus travel to take on a strong Atalanta side. Tomorrow has Chris Richards, Matt Turner, and Crystal Palace taking on Leicester City in the Premier League, while Johnny Cardoso and Real Betis have a tough Copa del Rey test against Barcelona. Luca de la Torre and Celta Vigo will then have a similarly tough task on Thursday when they face Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey. Things wrap up on Friday when Gio Reyna, Cole Campbell, and Borussia Dortmund hit the road to play Nathaniel Brown and Eintracht Frankfurt in Bundesliga play.

Philadelphia Union Hit with Transfer Ban

The Philadelphia Union are currently on FIFA’s transfer ban list (paywall) handed down from FIFA — with the club currently unable to register new players for the next three transfer windows. The issue is reportedly linked to the 2022 signing of Venezuelan striker Jose Riasco. The Union owed $700 to Mineros de Guayana — Riasco’s boyhood club, as part of the sell-on percentage it was owed due to developing him. The Union had a difficult time finding a way to pay the club, and the missing money was reported to FIFA. While the Union have been trying to get the issue cleared up since December, they are not the only team dealing with a ban, so it’s uncertain how long it will take to resolve.

https://twitter.com/JoserNunez91/status/1878820472110084600

Free Kicks

  • Check out some of the views from Orlando City’s first day of preseason training.
https://twitter.com/OrlandoCitySC/status/1878914287907086415
https://twitter.com/OrlandoCitySC/status/1878849573680275609
  • MLS has reportedly instituted a cash-based internal trade system which will start immediately.
https://twitter.com/tombogert/status/1878934350596882898

That’s all I have for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Martin Ojeda Could Become a Star for Orlando City in 2025

Will Martin Ojeda replace Facundo Torres’ goal production in 2025?

Published

2 days ago

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January 13, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City signed Martin Ojeda on Jan. 9, 2023, using the Designated Player slot formerly occupied by club captain Mauricio Pereyra. The signing came with quite a bit of hype as it seemed the Argentinian midfielder would line up alongside Ivan Angulo and Facundo Torres to bolster the attack. It’s been an up-and-down first two seasons for the attacker, but 2025 could be his breakout campaign.

Ojeda began his career in Orlando as a regular in the starting lineup before being relegated to the bench for most of the second half of the 2023 MLS season. He spent more time in the starting lineup in 2024, eventually winning a spot in the starting XI. From June 28, 2024, to the end of the season, Ojeda started all but one game for the Lions, including every game in the team’s playoff run to the Eastern Conference final.

Orlando City is beginning a new era after the departure of the club’s all-time top goal scorer Facundo Torres earlier this off-season. The Uruguayan left a lasting mark on the club in just three years, including lifting the club to its first major trophy — the 2022 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup. In his three years in purple, Torres tallied 47 goals and 72 total goal contributions — both the most in club history, even if you include the USL era. He was the focal point of the offense, especially when the strikers weren’t scoring. His 20 goals in all competitions last year led the team and helped the Lions reach the Eastern Conference final for the first time.

It’s fair to expect the club’s strikers to pick up for the goals departing with Torres. However, the current striker group is unlikely to do so. Duncan McGuire netted 15 goals in 2023 before missing a chunk of 2024 while at the Summer Olympics. Ramiro Enrique started in his place, scoring 12 times, a significant increase from his four goals a year earlier. But the diminutive forward hasn’t shown that he can lead the team in scoring.

Making matters worse, the Lions will be without McGuire for a considerable part of next season. The striker was injured during the playoffs and required surgery on his shoulder this off-season. It will likely take time for him to return to action, resulting in Oscar Pareja depending on Enrique in the starting lineup unless another forward is signed.

Torres made up for the lack of goals from the striker position last year and that production has been tough for Ojeda to match. However, while some might consider the Designated Player disappointing in most of his first two seasons, he created plenty of opportunities in 2024. Torres played 858 more minutes than Ojeda last season and only had 12 more shots. While Ojeda didn’t get on the scoresheet as often as Torres, he created chances for others, racking up a team-leading 13 assists.

When it comes to goal scoring, Torres’ production largely has to do with his shooting accuracy. The Uruguayan put 41 of his 88 shots (46.6%) on frame. Meanwhile, Ojeda only put 30 of his 76 shots on goal (39.5%). This is a major reason why Torres netted 20 goals in all competitions and Ojeda only scored seven times.

Especially considering that Ojeda started 34 games last season, the midfielder is almost guaranteed a spot in the starting lineup. And with Torres now playing in Brazil, Ojeda will likely be a focal point of the Lions’ attack. This gives the attacker a chance to fill the hole left by Torres and live up to his Designated Player status.

Torres leaves Orlando with an impeccable reputation, and the way Ojeda is viewed as a Designated Player signing will largely depend on if he can replace Torres’ goal contributions. If he can increase his production and replace the goals scored by Torres, Orlando City fans will think much more highly of the attacker. However, his failure to produce similar numbers as the departed star could hurt his legacy as a Lion.

Expectations will be high for Orlando City in 2025. The Lions were widely expected to contend for the Supporters’ Shield and/or MLS Cup, and while they didn’t meet those lofty goals, they made it farther than any previous MLS incarnation of the team. To make it one step further in 2025, they’ll need Ojeda to step up and help to replace the star they lost in December.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/13/25

Orlando City preseason training starts today, Jaedyn Shaw reportedly set to join the North Carolina Courage, MLS transfer news, and more.

Published

2 days ago

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January 13, 2025

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you down in Florida. It’s just been another busy week for me working at Under Armour, and I covered some high school basketball. Later this week, I’ll be working at the Chicago Cubs Convention. Let’s all wish Orlando City goalkeeper coach Cesar Baena a happy birthday, and also a happy belated birthday to Orlando City forward Jack Lynn, who turned 25 on Sunday. There’s plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.

Orlando City Preseason Training Camp Starts Today

Orlando City players completed their medicals over the weekend to get ready to kick off their 2025 preseason camp.

Robin Jansson and Ramiro Enrique discussed the benefit of working with Orlando Health and the team’s athletic trainers and medical staff to ensure the players are fit and ready to play. The Lions also had their sports science and performance testing on Sunday.

Jaedyn Shaw Will Reportedly Join the North Carolina Courage

The San Diego Wave are reportedly trading forward Jaedyn Shaw to the North Carolina Courage for an undisclosed amount of Allocation Money. Shaw had reportedly been seeking a trade from the Wave for the past year. For the Courage, this move would bolster their attack after they only scored 34 goals last season. Shaw spent three seasons in San Diego, recording 14 goals in 61 appearances across all competitions. She has also made 21 appearances for the United States Women’s National Team, scoring eight goals, and was part of the squad that won a gold medal at the 2024 Olympics in Paris.

MLS Transfer Roundup

Major League Soccer had another busy weekend with some notable transfer moves. The San Jose Earthquakes acquired forward Cristian Arango from Real Salt Lake in exchange for $700,000 in 2025 General Allocation Money (GAM), $700,000 in 2026 GAM, and a 2026 international roster slot. Arango will be a Designated Player in San Jose. The Quakes appear not to be done yet, as the club is reportedly close to a deal to add forward Josef Martinez.

The Seattle Sounders have re-signed midfielder Joao Paulo through 2025, with an option for the 2026 season. Lastly, Atlanta United has reportedly submitted a bid to EFL Championship side Middlesbrough for forward Emmanuel Latte Lath.

English FA Cup Weekend Recap

The third round of the FA Cup continued over the weekend in England with some notable results and plenty of drama. On Sunday, Tottenham Hotspur needed to go to extra time to defeat National League side Tamworth 3-0. Despite playing the second half with 10 men, Manchester United defeated Arsenal 5-3 on penalties following a thrilling 1-1 draw. Manchester United goalkeeper Altay Bayindir stopped a penalty in the second half and made a clutch save on Arsenal’s Kai Havertz in the penalty shootout, while Joshua Zirkzee scored the winning penalty for Manchester United to advance.

On Saturday, Liverpool shut out Accrington Stanley 4-0, Manchester City defeated Salford City 8-0, and Wolverhampton edged Bristol City 2-1. We did get one upset, as Plymouth Argyle defeated Brentford 1-0.

The draw results for the fourth round were announced and there are some intriguing matchups. Manchester United faces Leicester City, Plymouth Argyle hosts Liverpool, and Aston Villa takes on Tottenham.

Free Kicks

  • Former Orlando Pride defender Ali Riley lost her home in the Los Angeles wildfires. We here at The Mane Land extend our thoughts and best wishes to all those affected by the wildfires in Southern California.
  • Former Orlando Pride goalkeeper Carly Nelson spoke up about her experience dealing with physical and emotional abuse with the Utah Royals on social media .

Carly Nelson is speaking out about her time with the Utah Royals. “This experience revealed a harsh truth: the culture of any organization is shaped by its leaders. When they prioritize power over people, abuse thrives unchecked.”

— Lesley Ryder (@lesleyryder.bsky.social) 2025-01-10T20:32:36.056Z
  • The USWNT’s January training camp has been moved to Florida due to the Los Angeles wildfires. The USWNT will train at Inter Miami’s Florida Blue Training Center in Ft. Lauderdale.
  • Forward Matthew Hoppe and Middlesbrough have reached a mutual agreement to terminate his contract, and he will leave the club as a free agent.

That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.

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