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How Should We Make Sense of Orlando City’s Defense in 2024?

An evaluation of Orlando City’s defensive players thus far this season.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Everyone loves offense, no matter the sport. Whether it be baskets, goals, runs, touchdowns, tries, or any other manner of scoring, much more focus is often put on the scoring of points than the defensive side of preventing them. Since I started writing for The Mane Land, I have only written about offense, so just like when at a concert the band likes to give the drummers some love by focusing on them, it is time to shift to looking at Orlando City’s defense thus far this season.

Alas, at a high level, the initial dive into Orlando City’s 2024 defense does not look that great. Opponents have scored 36 goals already this season in only 22 games, as compared to 38 for the entire 2023 regular season (34 games). The chart below, created using data from Opta and fbref.com, compares Orlando City to the rest of MLS in some key defensive areas and the results are, shall we say, less than ideal. One definition before you look, “MLS avg” is the average of every other team except Orlando City.

A few notes on this data:

  • I know you all remember from this math class, but Z-Scores measure how many standard deviations away from the average a value is. For example: if an average is 100 and the standard deviation is 5 then a value of 110 is 2 standard deviations more than the average, which would be a Z-score of 2. In general Z-Scores greater than 2 or less than -2 are pretty rare, and indicate that a value is an outlier as compared to the average.
  • Orlando City is not good at winning balls in the air. But there is some good news. Orlando City’s defenders (47.1% win rate) are at least better than the team’s attacking players (38.4%), but the MLS average win rate for defenders is 57%, and Orlando City’s defenders also rank 29th when compared to every other squad’s defenders. As a reminder there are only 29 MLS teams, so you cannot rank below 29th. Not great, Bob.
  • In general, I do not love xG (expected goals) as a stat. The reason why is that it simply measures the overall percentage of goals per shot from a location on the field, but it does not take into account who is shooting (my 7-year-old son, Brayden’s, xG is the same as Facundo Torres’ from any spot on the field. Until recently, this may have actually been legitimately true for both when they used their right foot.). That said, I do think it is helpful to look at xG as a relative measure of where shots are coming from, or in this case, where Orlando City is allowing shots to be taken from. Orlando City is giving up shots more frequently than other MLS teams from places that, historically, have generated more goals.

I want to go a little more in depth on the two items that show as green on that chart, Fouls committed per 90 minutes and recoveries per 90 minutes. Orlando City is doing well — very well — compared to the rest of MLS in both, but what does that really mean?

Committing fewer fouls than other teams seems like a good thing, but this is where numbers simply do not provide enough context to determine whether it is actually good or not to be a “clean” team and not foul. A few more tactical fouls in the buildup of play and maybe a few of the goals scored against Orlando City do not happen. A few more fouls on attacking players trying to beat an Orlando City player 1-v-1 early in the game, and perhaps they look to pass instead of taking on defenders late in the game. Orlando City has been elite this year at not fouling, but I do not think there is enough data here to conclude whether that is actually helpful.

Similarly, being in the top third of the league in recoveries (of loose balls) per 90 minutes may be another stat that sounds better than it is. Yes, it does show that the team is hustling and getting possession of the ball, and in general in soccer, if you have the ball, the other team cannot score. I do not want to take anything away from the hustle of this team, because it certainly does have a lot of players who give maximum effort, and winning two more loose balls per game than the average team could be the difference in winning and losing a game.

But it could also just mean that your own team is a little careless with the ball and you are one step quicker to get to the ball when it gets loose. I think for this particular stat it is more about hustle than good defense, so a positive but not necessarily an indication of defensive prowess.

So, we have some stats that show that as a team Orlando City has been in the mid to lower part of the league, but why? What is really driving this change from a team that was tied for seventh for fewest goals conceded during the 2023 season?

While goals against come against the entire team, in general, the primary group responsible for goals are those who play in the back. I’ve gone through every match and evaluated who was playing and when, and the chart below I think starts to really tell the tale of why the defense has not prevented as many goals as in previous seasons. (Note: Opponent SoT% is the percentage of shots the opponent put on target.)

I know this chart may have been a lot to look at, but that is also part of the point. The Lions have not had a lot of consistency in their back line this season, with 22 different groupings in the back playing at least one minute and six different groups playing at least 150 minutes. Breaking the list down, we can also see that:

  • The defensive group that has played the most minutes has not even played one-third of the total minutes this season, so there has just not been a lot of game time for any one unit to play together and gel as a group.
  • The defensive group that played approximately one-fifth of the minutes so far this season includes a midfielder, Wilder Cartagena, and was used as part of a back three playing with two wingbacks, not Orlando City’s preferred formation but one the club had to use a lot because of the next item on this list.
  • Robin Jansson has already missed more minutes in 2024 (400) than he did in all of 2023 (180). The man is the captain for a reason, and he certainly would have played most if not all 400 of those minutes had he been available.
  • Smoking Gun Alert: Jansson and David Brekalo have only played 610 minutes together all season (30.8% of all minutes), but in those minutes, their goals against per 90 minutes is only 1.33, which is 25% better (let me repeat, 25% better!) than Orlando City defensive lineups without those two playing at the same time (1.77 Goals Against per 90).

Not every lineup that Orlando City has rolled out with Jansson and Brekalo in the middle has been successful, and they still have only played a pretty low number of minutes together, but at more than 600 minutes played together there is now a good sample size to say that the data backs up that Orlando City’s best defensive lineup should include Jansson and Brekalo.

Another reason it is critical to have two stalwart center backs like Jansson and Brekalo on the field is that Óscar Pareja’s offensive game plan generally includes his outside backs making runs up the field to put pressure on the defense. The three primary outside backs who have played most of the minutes this year — Rafael Santos, Kyle Smith, and Dagur Dan Thórhallsson — all average between 2.0 and 2.2 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes, and next-in-line Mikey Halliday nearly did (1.7) last year as well, though he has been hurt for most of this season, so he has not played very much.

If you are going to have your outside backs bombing forward, which Dagur Dan in particular has aggressively been doing recently (2.9 shot-creating actions per 90 mins during his last five games), then you need to have stability staying home in the back, and both the data and the eye test tilt toward that stability being recommended to come from Jansson and Brekalo.

The outside back pairings do not show significant pluses or minuses based on which two are playing, so I expect that in the upcoming weeks Pareja will roll with who he thinks has the hot foot offensively, which in the last two matches has been Smith and Thórhallsson. Last year’s success primarily came with Santos and Thórhallsson on the outside though, so I expect that as Orlando City pushes for a playoff spot during the final few months of the season, they will still be tinkering a little bit. Constant change in the back has contributed to where Orlando City is in the defensive rankings and in the table, but at some point assuredly the back line will stop a-changin’. My dad will love that reference.

With the transfer window opening up I find it unlikely that Orlando City will look to add on the defensive side; the Lions have gotten through some injuries and the Euros, so barring injury (cross your fingers and knock on wood, thank you), they should hopefully have one consistent group to choose from for every game going forward.

The team took off last season once it really locked into a consistent 11 during the second half of the season, and there is no good defense for why that could not happen again this year.

Lion Links

Lion Links: 4/1/25

Barbra Banda’s continued importance, Americans in midweek action, USWNT announces friendly, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Good morning everyone! It was a great weekend for Orlando’s soccer teams as Orlando City and the Orlando Pride both won, meaning that we got treated to a six-point weekend (OCB was off). As always we have plenty to talk through this morning, so let’s get into today’s links.

Barbra Banda Keeps Rolling in 2025

After a wildly successful debut season with the Orlando Pride in 2024, Barbra Banda has showed no signs of slowing down this year. A brace in the season opener meant that she picked up right where she left off last year, and the team has continued to be successful too. The Pride have made it three wins from three to start the 2025 season, and while Banda hasn’t scored since the opener, her blend of pace, power, dribbling, passing, and movement have continuously helped open things up for her teammates, and she drew a penalty that led to the Pride’s game-winning goal Saturday. She isn’t the Pride’s only offensive weapon, but the team clicks into a different gear when she’s at her best.

Americans in Midweek Action

There are a number of Americans who will be playing in games during the working week, and there are some very important clashes on hand. Things get going later today when Antonee Robinson and Fulham visit Arsenal in Premier League play as the Cottagers are in hot pursuit of a coveted European place. Wednesday has Chris Richards, Matt Turner and Crystal Palace facing Southampton, while Tyler Adams and Bournemouth take on Manchester City. Also on Wednesday, Christian Pulisic, Yunus Musah, and AC Milan will face Inter Milan in a Coppa Italia semifinal. Things finish up on Friday as Aidan Morris and Middlesborough travel to Blackburn Rovers in the EFL Championship.

USWNT Announces Canada Match

The United States Women’s National Team has announced another friendly taking place this summer, as the team will face Canada on July 2 in Washington, D.C. The match will be the third that the USWNT will play during the window, following a pair of friendlies against Ireland in late June. The neighboring countries will meet at Audi Field with the match designated as the Allstate Continental Clasico, with this being the first time that the match will feature the USWNT. The U.S. faced Canada twice in 2024, with both matches ending in 2-2 draws and the USWNT emerging victorious in shootouts.

Concacaf Champions Cup Preview

The Concacaf Champions Cup returns this week, with the first legs of the four quarterfinal matches set to be played today and tomorrow. Things get started tonight with what should be an exciting match between Club America and Cruz Azul, with the crosstown rivals two of the winningest teams in the competition. Cruz Azul’s Angel Sepulveda leads the CCC’s golden boot race with four tallies. The late game sees the LA Galaxy taking on Tigres as the Galaxy will try to distract themselves from a difficult start to their MLS Cup title defense. Wednesday’s slate has the Vancouver Whitecaps taking on Pumas UNAM in Canada in what will be the second-ever meeting between the two teams. The late game will be an all-MLS affair as LAFC hosts Inter Miami in the first meeting between the two sides in CCC play.

Sporting Kansas City Fires Peter Vermes

The longest-tenured coach in Major League Soccer is out of work, as Sporting Kansas City announced the firing of Peter Vermes on Monday morning. It’s an end of an era in Kansas City, as Vermes was the head coach since 2009, back when the team was still called the Kansas City Wizards, and he had been named the club’s technical director three years earlier in 2006. He guided the team to an MLS Cup win in 2013; claimed U.S. Open Cup titles in 2012, 2015, and 2017; and helped the team be consistently competitive for a majority of his tenure. Despite all of that, SKC missed the playoffs in two of the last three seasons and was mired in the midst of a 13-game winless streak in all competitions that stretched back to Sept. 18 of last year. After being an assistant on Vermes’ staff, Kerry Zavagnin will take over as interim head coach.

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That’s all I have for this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City vs. LA Galaxy: Player Grades and Man of the Match

How did your favorite Lions perform in Orlando City’s 2-1 victory over the LA Galaxy?

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City capped off its March slate of matches with a cross-country bout against the 2024 MLS Cup champions, the LA Galaxy. In what was the longest commute that the Lions will register in the 2025 season, Orlando looked out of sync for much of the match, especially when contrasted with the squad that stomped D.C. United at home last week. Miraculously for the fans that stayed up past their bedtimes back on the East Coast, the Lions shocked the reigning champions and stole all three points with a come-from-behind 2-1 victory over the final quarter hour of the match.

Let’s look at the Lions’ individual performances to see who made the grade and who can improve as the calendar turns to April.

Starters

GK, Pedro Gallese, 6.5 — Gallese returned for Orlando after missing time while representing Peru during World Cup qualifiers. For the most part, he did well against the pressure of an agressive attack from the Galaxy. In the end, he was credited with just one save, which was a massive righthanded block of a shot by Gabriel Pec that could have put the game away for the home side. It isn’t worth entertaining a discussion about Gallese “letting another one in,” as the goal that the Galaxy scored was off a point-blank redirection back against his momentum, and it should have at the bare minimum warranted a second look for a potential offside ruling. His distribution was mostly solid, and he had an 81.8% passing rate on his 11 attempts while completing three of his five long balls. He was booked in the waining moments of the match for time wasting — although it was Rodrigo Schlegel who kicked the ball away without being spotted, and Gallese was merely retrieving it.

D, Rafael Santos, 5.5 — Santos had a few bright moments throughout the match, with an emphasis on the word few. I did think that he was better at getting into the attack and sent several balls across the net that had the potential to be dangerous. On the defensive end, there were just too many mistakes for my liking, whether that be careless turnovers, poor positioning, or falling asleep on the back side of the play. He and Ivan Angulo were both at fault on LA’s goal, as neither picked up Miki Yamane’s run. Santos was also overpowered twice by Pec. The Brazilian touched the ball 48 times, provided two key passes, one successful cross (on five attempts), and a passing rate of 76.9%. Defensively, he provided two tackles and three clearances. Offensively, Santos recorded a shot that was not on target. The left back currently benefits from a lack of depth pushing him for his starting minutes but will need to improve if Orlando is to continue its winning ways. He was replaced by David Brekalo in the 66th minute.

D, Rodrigo Schlegel, 7 — Schlegel had a productive and technically sound evening for the Lions. Defensively, he contributed one interception, a team-high seven clearances, and two blocked shots. He passed at a 93.6% rate, while touching the ball a team-high 88 times, and completed five long balls (on eight attempts). He didn’t register an offensive statistic during the match, but he played well and I thought that he had solid positioning throughout the night when the Galaxy sent balls into the box.

D, Robin Jansson, 6 — Something just seems off right now with Jansson, as the output from the captain simply feels less than what we have come to expect. Nonetheless, Jansson went the full 90 and recorded 65 touches. He completed 94.8% of his passes which included a team-best seven accurate long balls on nine attempts. Defensively, he contributed one tackle, one interception, and three clearances. Christian Ramirez beat Jansson on the lone goal for the Galaxy.

D, Alex Freeman, 6.5 — Freeman continues to put in the work for Orlando City. While his first West Coast trip was not fruitful in terms of goal-scoring contributions, the young Lion still managed to affect the game in a myriad of ways. He recorded 69 touches and completed 93.3% of his passes, which included two key passes and one accurate cross. Defensively, he added a team-high four tackles and two clearances. Offensively, Freeman tied Martin Ojeda for the most shots taken on the night (three) but was only able to put one on target. Freeman continues to showcase a solid motor that is helping to drive the offense, and he has shown strong chemistry with Marco Pasalic as well, but the most impressive aspect of his game against the Galaxy for me was the job he did in space defensively against Joseph Paintsil when the speedster entered the match in the second half.

MF, Cesar Araujo, 6.5 — This felt like a classic Araujo performance and the Uruguayan was seemingly everywhere on the pitch. He logged 63 touches and completed 90% of his passes but was only successful on one of his five long-ball attempts. Defensively, he contirbuted two tackles, one interception, and two clearances. Offensively, Araujo did not record a stat but did suffer a team-high three fouls. Araujo was able to defend without being booked against the Galaxy, and he has shown signficant improvement this season so far in not picking up careless yellow cards.

MF, Eduard Atuesta, 7.5 (MotM) — The former member of LAFC became the catalyst for the late offensive turnaround against what used to be his crosstown rival by earning a penalty in the 77th minute. He recorded 75 touches and completed 89.8% of his passes, which inlcuded two key passes, four accurate long balls on five attempts, and two succesful crosses on two attempts. Offensively, he attempted two shots, one which nearly put Orlando City in the lead when it hit the right post. Defensively, he contributed one tackle and two clearances. Atuesta benefitted from the insertion of Brekalo and Duncan McGuire, pushing forward into the attack, and without his effort, Orlando City likely would not have earned all three points. He was replaced by Joran Gerbet in stoppage time as part of a time-wasting, like-for-like substitution to see out the match.

MF, Ivan Angulo, 5.5 — To put it bluntly, Angulo is not in great form right now. The speedy Colombian is failing to challenge opposing back lines in the attack and has become a liability on the defensive side of the ball. The pairing of Angulo with Santos on the left has become a favorite area for the opposition to attack, and he was partly culpable in letting Yamane sneak in toward the back post on LA’s goal. He recorded 37 touches and completed 90.5% of his passes, which included one key pass. Defensively, he chipped in one tackle and one interception. Offensively, Angulo was dispossessed a team-high four times, as the careless giveaways — often in Orlando’s defensive half — continue to pile up. Orlando clearly needs more from the left wing, who was replaced in the 66th minute by McGuire, with Oscar Pareja pushing Ojeda to the left and playing Luis Muriel as the No. 10.

MF, Martin Ojeda, 7 — Ojeda did not allow another Lion to even remotely consider taking the penalty as he quickly stood over the spot, ball in hand, and then calmly converted the PK to pull Orlando level. Ojeda has now tied his goals total (four) from the 2024 season in only the sixth game of the year. Ojeda touched the ball 56 times and passed at a 90.5% rate while providing one key pass and four accurate long balls out of five attempts. Ojeda could have stood to improve his crossing, as he was only accurate on one of his five attempts. Offensively, Ojeda took three shots (tied with Freeman for the most on the team) but put just one on target (the penalty that he converted). He badly scuffed his first shot and his second was just off target in the first half. Defensively, he didn’t contribute a meaningful statistic, which was surprising, and it kept him just a rung below Atuesta when it came to Man of the Match honors.

MF, Marco Pasalic, 6.5 — Pasalic showcased several individual moments of brillance in the first half when the game was moving quickly end to end. Unfortunately for the Croatian winger, those moments failed to result in a change to the scoreboard. He touched the ball 39 times and completed 81.5% of his passes, including all four of his long balls. Defensively, like Ojeda, Pasalic did not record a meaningful statistic. Despite not scoring against the Galaxy, Pasalic continues to flash his skill with the ball and has been one of the main driving forces behind the strong offensive start to the season. He was replaced by Dagur Dan Thorhallsson in the 82nd minute.

F, Luis Muriel, 7 — Did Muriel score or did John McCarthy botch the play? Both, but who cares? Muriel’s long-distance free kick in the 90th minute found the back of the net, and the placement of the shot contributed to McCarthy’s mistake, as the Colombian sealed the victory and three important road points for Orlando City. A play reminisent of when fellow Designated Player Ojeda hit the equalizer from practically midfield against Charlotte FC back in 2023, Muriel stepped up to a free kick well outside the box and sent a shot towards the top left corner of the net. The goal capped a well-rounded performance for Muriel, who continues to play his best soccer in an Orlando City kit. Muriel finished with 37 touches and completed 88% of his passes, including a key pass. Offensively, he registered two shots with the one that mattered being on target. His other shot was a laser through traffic that barely missed just outside the left post on a set piece. Defensively, the striker contributed a tackle. Kyle Smith replaced him in the third minute of stoppage time.

Substitutes

D, David Brekalo (66’), 7 — I thought Brekalo put in some of his best minutes of the year as he entered in the 66th minute for Santos. It was an unexpected substitution, as Brekalo is a central defender. Regardless, the Slovenian played strong and sound defense, snuffing out multiple attacking runs by Pec. He racked up three tackles and three clearances on defense and put in several eye-opening efforts in the attack as well, as Orlando looked to get back into the match. He completed 90.9% of his passes, and while he did not record a shot, he was quite active around the box and made multiple runs off of his attacking counterparts. Brekalo at left back might be something to keep an eye on, as Pareja has been looking for someone to play consistently well there early in the season. Time will tell.

F, Duncan McGuire (66’), 6.5 — McGuire secured his longest stint since his off-season shoulder surgery and looked agressive over the final moments of the match. He opens up the field in a way Muriel is physically not able to at this point in his career, as the American got in behind the back line multiple times and pulled it out of shape for his teammates to exploit. He recorded three shots, which were all off target, but it is only a matter of time before the forward finds the back of the net. He completed 80% of his five passes and was credited with a key pass.

MF, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson (82′), N/A — Thorhallsson came on in relief of Pasalic and did well over the final moments of the match. The insertion of Brekalo, McGuire, and then Thorhallsson allowed Orlando to be the more dangerous side over the last 20 plus minutes of game time. He completed 83.3% of his passes and was credited with two key passes. Defensively, the product of Iceland added two clearances, and he did well to track back and help Freeman keep Paintsil bottled up.

D, Kyle Smith (93′), N/A — Smith came in following the long-distance goal by Muriel to help see out the victory.

MF, Joran Gerbet (93′), N/A — Like Smith, Gerbet was inserted to help see out the road win in stoppage time but also came into the match for Atuesta who was on a yellow card.


That’s how I saw the individual performances in Orlando City’s come-from-behind win over the Galaxy. Let us know how you saw the game in the comments below, and don’t forget to vote for your Man of the Match.

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Lion Links: 3/31/25

Lions and Pride win, NWSL weekend recap, FA Cup quarterfinals, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you down in Florida. I’ve been very busy at work but will attend the Chicago Cubs’ home opener at Wrigley Field later this week. Our Lions and Pride won while OCB was off this weekend. We’ve got plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.

Orlando City Beats LA Galaxy on the Road

On Saturday, Orlando City fought back from a 1-0 deficit, scoring two goals in the second half to defeat the LA Galaxy 2-1 at Dignity Health Sports Park. The Galaxy struck early in the first half to jump on top. In the second half, the Lions were awarded a penalty kick after Eduard Atuesta was taken down in the box, and Martin Ojeda buried the spot kick to tie the match at one. In the 90th minute, Luis Muriel scored the winning goal on a long-range free kick to complete the comeback. Orlando is on a three-match unbeaten streak and beat the LA Galaxy for the third consecutive time. Orlando City’s next match will be on the road Saturday against the Philadelphia Union at Subaru Park.

Orlando Pride Defeat San Diego Wave at Home

The Orlando Pride defeated the San Diego Wave 2-1 Saturday afternoon at Inter&Co Stadium and extended their win streak to three matches to start the season. After a scoreless first half, Haley McCutcheon scored to give Orlando the lead. The Wave equalized before Marta converted a penalty kick goal to seal the win for Orlando. The Pride are off to a great start this season, outscoring their opponents 10-1, and are atop the NWSL standings ahead of the Kansas City Current on goal difference. The Pride are off this weekend due to the international break but will be on the road in their next match against the Seattle Reign on April 12.

NWSL Weekend Recap

The National Women’s Soccer League’s third week of matches is in the books. On Friday, the Houston Dash and NJ/NY Gotham FC match ended in a scoreless draw. The Washington Spirit defeated Bay FC 2-0, with Ashley Hatch scoring both goals. On Saturday, the Kansas City Current defeated the Utah Royals 3-0, while the Portland Thorns and North Carolina Courage match ended in a scoreless draw. On Sunday, the Chicago Stars fell 1-0 to Racing Louisville and remain winless, while Angel City FC edged the Seattle Reign 2-1 to secure its first win of the season.

FA Cup Quarterfinals Recap

The FA Cup quarterfinals wrapped up with thrilling drama as four clubs booked a spot in the semifinals. Crystal Palace cruised to a 3-0 victory against Fulham, while Nottingham Forest edged Brighton 4-3 on penalties after a scoreless draw to advance. Aston Villa dominated Preston North End as Marcus Rashford scored twice to seal a 3-0 win, while Manchester City edged Bournemouth 2-1. The FA Cup semifinals are set for April 26 as Crystal Palace faces Aston Villa while Nottingham Forest will take on Manchester City.

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  • Orlando City GM Luiz Muzzi provided some insight in an ESPN.com article on player transfers and highlighted the importance of building connections with different clubs to facilitate transfers.
  • Former Lion Benji Michel is going to play for HJK Helsinki.

  • That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.

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