Orlando City has enjoyed a great run of form over a significant amount of its summertime fixtures, but as October quickly approaches, only a handful of matches remain on the schedule to pick up points and score goals. The Lions have been paced by their two stars in Designated Player Facundo Torres and USMNT Olympian Duncan McGuire. Currently, through 29 matches, Torres leads Orlando City with 12 goals and McGuire is right on his heels with nine. Let’s take a look at the underlying numbers to try to predict who will ultimately finish the Major League Soccer regular season as the top goal scorer for OCSC.

Facundo Torres

At this point in his Orlando City career, everyone should just accept the fact that Torres starts to heat up right about the same time as the Central Florida temperatures. Three years running and the DP has consistently started slowly before roaring to life over the summer months of the season. The 2024 campaign is no different, as it took Torres six MLS regular-season matches to score his first goal of the year and then another seven games before finding the back of the net for goal number two. After almost half the season (15 matches) Torres stood firm on those two goals and, coincidentally, his team’s position in the standings reflected his sluggish start.

Torres finally started to turn things around on June 19 against Charlotte FC and found the back of the net six times before the Leagues Cup interrupted the regular season near the end of July.

Since returning to action after the Leagues Cup, Torres has bagged an additional four goals and currently sits just two goals shy of his career high, which was set during the 2023 campaign. Facu has netted 12 throughout the regular season across 27 matches and 2,216 game minutes played. He has logged 54 total scoring attempts and has placed 25 of those attempts on target for a shooting percentage of 46.3%.

Duncan McGuire

So much has been made about McGuire’s off-season transfer drama that it might as well just be turned into its own telenovela at this point. Despite all of the drama and back and forth, McGuire has continued to work and has been nothing short of a consummate pro for both his club and country. McGuire scored his first and second of the year in a 3-2 loss to Minnesota United FC back on March 9, and throughout the first half of the season, he did well to find the back of the net fairly frequently, scoring about once every other game between March 30 and May 15. Time away representing the United States certainly played a role in McGuire finding himself as second on the goal-scoring list instead of leading it for Orlando City, as prior to the Sept. 14 match against the New England Revolution, McGuire’s last goal came all the way back on June 28 against New York City FC.

McGuire sits four goals behind the 13 that he scored in his rookie campaign as he has contributed nine through 23 matches and 1,465 game minutes. He has logged 35 total scoring attempts and has placed 15 of those attempts on target for a shooting percentage of 42.9%.

Projecting Orlando’s Top Scorer

If the current starting lineup holds true over the final five matches of the year, I have a hard time projecting that McGuire could be able to catch and then surpass Torres, even though he is only three goals behind. McGuire has operated out of a super substitute role since rejoining the squad from the Olympics, and if that role continues, then he will have far less time on the field compared to Torres to find the back of the net.

McGuire has done his best over the last two matches, scoring in each game quickly after entering, but at this point, he is unlikely to crack the starting lineup again before the end of the year. Not to mention that in the last two matches when McGuire has scored, Torres had already found the back of the net, keeping the striker at the same deficit despite McGuire’s efforts.

Torres is also the go-to penalty kick taker for the team and has converted two of his three attempts on the year, giving him the ability to pad his numbers from the spot should an opportunity arise over the last stretch of matches. Falling back to the numbers, Torres’ shooting percentage is few ticks better than McGuire’s and should allow him a slightly higher statistical chance to find the goal more times before the end of the season than his second-year counterpart.

I think they both should just keep scoring with reckless abandon…what a great problem to have! Do you think McGuire will catch Torres? Let us know in the comments below and as always, Vamos Orlando!

Once Oscar Pareja finds a lineup he likes, he tends to stick with it. This is not necessarily a bad thing when the team is playing well and earning points. It can be if he is slow to make changes when things start to not be so good and the team is dropping points, like in the match against Sporting Kansas City.

I think it’s time to shake some things up. Here are my recommendations.

Left Back Luca

Luca Petrasso has been killing it with Orlando City B as of late. He’s also looked pretty good in the limited time with the senior squad. This is a player with a first-team contract who went on loan to Triestina for six months, has gotten quality minutes with OCB, and should now be given a chance to start at left back. 

It might sound a little crazy, but neither Rafael Santos nor Kyle Smith has played very well recently when they have gotten the start. A change is needed, and giving Petrasso a start is a good way to reward his play both with OCB and with the few minutes he’s managed with the first team. Honestly, I’m not sure it would be much worse than what Santos and Smith have provided in recent games, so Pareja might as well give it a go.

Midfield Move

Let me first say that I’m talking about the attacking midfield. Defensive midfielders Wilder Cartagena and Cesar Araujo are a bright spot on a team that has struggled recently. I’m talking about shaking things up a little higher up the pitch. 

Given that Martin Ojeda, Facundo Torres, and Ivan Angulo have all been starting recently, that only leaves Nico Lodeiro to bring on for one of those three. I don’t see Pareja sitting Torres, so let’s take that off the table. If he were to sit Angulo, then that would likely mean moving Torres to the left side. We all know that Torres prefers the right side so he can cut across the defense and put the ball on goal with his favored left foot. You also lose Angulo’s speed, and I don’t expect Angulo to have another match like he did against Kansas City.

That leaves Ojeda out. I’m not saying he’s been worse than the other two, but from a tactical perspective it makes the most sense for Lodeiro to replace Ojeda. That allows the other two to stay in their preferred spots, and for Ojeda to come on around the 60th minute with fresh legs. Lodeiro has enough in the tank to do it, and some sort of change is needed to get the attack going again.

Orlando Runs on Duncan

Ramiro Enrique went on a goal-scoring tear up until two matches ago. Because of Enrique’s form, even after Duncan McGuire signed his new contract, the Argentine got the next two starts. The first of those against Cruz Azul on Aug. 9 was no big deal. Nobody scored in that one. Then there was a two-week break before Saturday’s 24 match against Sporting Kansas City. Still no goal for the young striker, and even worse, he started putting the ball out or right at the keeping in both of those matches. 

Now, it’s time to put Big Dunc back in the starting lineup. He has his new contract, and giving him the start with something to prove after subbing in these last few matches could spark the Orlando City attack once more. Additionally, there is a reason he got the new deal. He knows how to score goals, and sometimes you just need to get out there to make it happen. The added benefit is that Enrique will be motivated to win back that starting spot when he’s coming off the bench.

That’s what I’d like to see this Saturday night from Orlando City. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

With a bit off time off until Orlando City’s next match, there’s no time like the present to peek ahead in the calendar and make some guesses as to how the rest of August will treat the Lions. OCSC will only play two more matches before the month ends, as the team got a couple weeks off after being eliminated from Leagues Cup.

Saturday, Aug. 24 at Sporting Kansas City

The first game following the break comes on the road against Sporting Kansas City. SKC’s last game was on Friday, Aug. 9, the same as Orlando, and the club was soundly beaten 4-0 on the road by the Columbus Crew in the Leagues Cup Round of 32. In the league, Sporting has compiled a record of 6-14-6, and currently sits in 12th place in the West on 24 points. Scoring goals hasn’t been an issue, as 41 in 26 games is a perfectly respectable rate, but the bigger issue has been keeping the ball out of their own net. Sporting has given up a whopping 52 tallies on the season, and only a woeful San Jose Earthquakes side — that’s in real danger of conceding a historic number of times — has given up more. Willy Agada has quietly put together a nice season with nine goals and two assists in just 1,266 minutes, but I like the Lions’ chances here.

Orlando City is on an eight-game unbeaten streak in all competitions, and only a sudden bout of lackluster finishing prevented the good guys from getting a win against Cruz Azul in the game that eliminated OCSC from Leagues Cup. Plus, Kansas City also has a U.S. Open Cup semifinal on Tuesday, Aug. 27 to think about. The playoffs aren’t quite out of reach yet, but the USOC represents SKC’s best chance for a trophy this year, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the club prioritizes it. I think the finishing touch comes back, the defense continues the improved play its shown during this run, and Orlando gets it done on the road.

Prediction: Orlando City 2-1 Sporting Kansas City.

Saturday, Aug. 31 vs. Nashville SC

For the final match of the month, Orlando City has a home game against Nashville SC, one of the teams it took down during the current unbeaten run. Nashville was last in action back on Aug. 6, when a penalty shootout loss against the New England Revolution bounced the team from Leagues Cup in the group stage. Pending next week’s match against Austin FC, Nashville may come into next week’s clash in Orlando not having won a game since a 1-0 result at home against NYCFC all the way back on June 22. The Tennessee side has a record of 6-11-8 and is 12th in the East on 26 points. The defense has been fairly solid, with 39 goals given up through 25 games. The attack has been a different story though, with the 26 goals scored just barely tipping the team over a goal-a-game average. Sam Surridge has scored almost a quarter of the team’s goals with eight in 19 games, so if the Lions can bottle him up they should have a decent chance of keeping the visitors off the board.

Once again, I think this is a game that Orlando City should win. Both teams will have had a game to get back into a competitive rhythm, but the Lions have looked much better than Nashville in recent outings, and picked up a pretty comfortable win on the road the last time the two teams squared off. Orlando’s defense has picked up its play after an uncharacteristically shaky start to the year, and Nashville has struggled to score goals all season. On paper, the schedule is set up for OCSC to have a strong finish to the season, and I expect the good guys to take care of business here.

Prediction: Orlando City 3-0 Nashville SC.

Those are my guesses for Orlando’s two remaining matches in August. Do you think I got it right, or do you see these matches going a different way? Be sure to have your say down in the comments. Vamos Orlando!