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The Pride’s Offense is Alive but Recently Has Not Thrived

An evaluation of the Pride’s offensive performance in their three games since the NWSL resumed play after the Olympic break.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

The Pride keep winning, and former New York Jets coach Herm Edwards said it best: “you play to win the game. Hello!” Whether the result looks like free-flowing and beautiful soccer or brute force, rough-and-tumble soccer that looks more like (American) football, in the end all that matters is the scoreboard, and the Pride are still undefeated and in the midst of their second six-game winning streak of the season.

That said, since the Pride came back to NWSL play after the Olympic break, they have not quite looked as dominant offensively as they did pre-Olympics. The defense remains rock solid, with zero goals given up in all three games since the return (note: zero goals in the last three games and only one goal given up in the last seven NWSL games, wow!), but the offense looks slightly off, or as off as a team can be that scores in and wins three straight games. Are these champagne problems, or is there something bubbling up that will need ironing out as the calendar turns to autumn and playoff season nears? I do not want to be the male version of Debbie Downer (Andrew Alarmist? Hopefully there will be no need to workshop this any further.), but I think it is worth exploring.

Let’s take a look at some numbers for the Pride that illustrate how the offensive performance during the most recent three games looks as compared to prior games. In the chart below, taken from data provided on fbref.com and excluding opposition own goals, are the totals for the first 16 games of the season in the first row, the last three of those first 16 games in the second row, and then the most recent three games in the third row.

With the exception of the percentage of shots the Pride put on target, games 17-19 were worse across the board in every other category when compared to the three games immediately prior to the Olympic break and to the first 16 games overall. Worse is a relative term, because if you compare the “worse” performances in those most recent three games to the rest of the NWSL throughout the full season, the Pride’s performance compares favorably in many categories, even though when compared to their own earlier season performances it seems like a downturn.

Compared to every other NWSL team’s full season metrics, the Pride’s last three games are demonstrably better (blue highlighted cells are where the Pride’s output is better) than most other teams in goals, shots on target, and expected goals. The Pride are worse in the conversion stats, goals as a percentage of shots and as a percentage of shots on target, and the number of shots they are expected to take per goal (based on expected goals scored). This is the part in every article where I add my view on expected goals; I think this data is useful in terms of looking at whether the Pride are taking shots from dangerous locations, but I do not actually put a lot of faith into whether a goal really should or should not be “expected” from that location.

If you do the PhD-level mathematics of counting the blue cells as a percentage of the total cells, the Pride are better in 47.4% of the cells above, which ranks them seventh among all teams. This is, of course, not an even comparison, as it is three games for the Pride as compared to every other team’s full 19 games, but the point is that even during a recent “down” period for the Pride’s offense the team is still in the top half of the 14 team NWSL and is performing better than all but three teams in the offensive category that matters most — goals per game. And the Pride are performing better than every team in the league in another somewhat significant measure, the league standings. Take that, Andrew Alarmist.

Alas, we cannot abrogate (SAT word alert) Andrew Alarmist just yet. We still need to take a look at Barbra Banda and what has been going on with her recently, as she has zero goals or assists in each of the last three games. Back in July I wrote an article about the historic pace Banda was on, and it is important to preface a look at the recent “poor performance” by Banda by remembering that with 17 goal contributions (12 goals, 5 assists) she is already tied for the 11th best single season in NWSL history, and with her next goal or assist she will move into a tie for 10th. If we look at the same data for Banda as we did for the full team earlier, we can see that her performance mirrors the Pride’s, which should not be surprising, considering of how much of a focal point she is for their offense.

Clearly the zeroes in the goals categories stand out as compared to the other numbers, but the big takeaway for me was really was around the quality of her shots. This is where I think expected goals really shines, because like a standardized test, it is the same for everyone, and so you can see that the locations of Banda’s shots pre-Olympics (918 minutes over 12 games) were much better than they have been recently (257 minutes over 3 games).

Banda is averaging nearly the same number of shots per 90 minutes as she was pre-Olympics (5.3 shots per 90 mins post-Olympics vs. 5.8 shots per 90 mins pre-Olympics), so the fact that her expected goals per game in the post-Olympics games is half as high indicates that the shots she has taken recently have been from more acute angles and/or farther away from the goal. Correspondingly, her shots on target percentage have dropped, which should not be a surprise based on the expected goals evaluation that the shots she has been taking are from more difficult locations.

On the flipside of the lack of goal contributions by Banda though is, once again, that the team has won all three of its recent games, even with her not scoring. Marta has now scored six goals on the season and Adriana and Summer Yates both have five, making the Pride the only team in the NWSL with four players with at least five goals scored this season. It is always better to have multiple threats, and the Pride are now rolling out four players that force the opposition to game plan against.

To go back to my question earlier, I think that it is indeed a champagne problem for the Pride that since the Olympic break they are winning games by close scores as opposed to walloping their opponents. Bill James, one of the originators of analytics in baseball, felt that run differential was more important than a team’s actual record in terms of determining who the best team in baseball really was, and if we apply this same concept to soccer, we would look at goal differential as the corresponding measure. The Pride are +25 thus far this season, 39% better than the team ranked next behind them and on track for one of the best seasons in league history, if not the best.

To give myself a little bit of credit, I think it was fair to look at the recent games with a discerning eye, but if Julie Doyle was not offside by inches against Gotham, that game is 3-0 instead of 2-0, and Banda also had multiple shots that were cleared off the line against the Red Stars, so that game could have been a multiple-goal victory as well.

To go back to the baseball well one more time, sometimes the Moneyball idea that you can evaluate sports by only looking at the numbers can be deceiving. You have to watch the games too. The Pride have clearly been the better team during all three of their recent games and Banda has been a force to be reckoned with as well. They just have been inches away from showing it both on the field and in the box scores.

I expect that a positive regression to the mean is coming for the Pride’s offense, hopefully as soon as Friday night in the Pride’s rematch with the Current!

Orlando Pride

Barba Banda’s Goal Contribution Percentage Pace Among the Highest in NWSL History

A dive into Banda’s numbers as a percentage of the Pride’s goal contributions.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

The NWSL took a collective break, as early June is scheduled as a FIFA international match window, so the league did not schedule any games. Several Pride players were called up to their national teams, including all three Zambian players: Barbra Banda, Grace Chanda, and Prisca Chilufya. Zambia drew Botswana 1-1 and lost to South Africa 2-0 during its two matches during the window, and in a what I am sure will be a complete surprise to everyone, it was Banda who scored Zambia’s one goal in the two games.

In Zambia’s last two major tournaments, the 2024 Olympics and the 2023 World Cup, Banda scored five of the team’s nine goals and assisted on two others for a total of seven goal contributions, and when I was looking to see Zambia’s results over this window, I started thinking about the criticality of Banda’s goal contributions to her country’s performances, and I wondered about how that stacked up to when she plays for the Pride.

The 2025 NWSL season is only 10 games in, so one game — say, a game in which Banda had the Pride’s first ever hat trick — skews the data more than it would after a full season’s worth of games, but here is what I found when looking at the players who had the highest percentage of goal contributions as a percentage of their team’s goals in NWSL history (I removed penalty kicks and opponents’ own goals from the count of a team’s goals scored):

PlayerSeasonGoal Contributions*% of Team’s Goals*
Lauren Holiday20132067%
Crystal Dunn20151864%
Barbra Banda2025862%
Esther González2025660%
Abby Wambach20131759%
Diana Matheson2013758%
Sam Kerr20172158%
Sam Kerr20192358%
Adriana Leon20171257%
Sam Kerr20182057%
Barbra Banda**20241950%
  1. * Excluding own goals and penalty kicks
  2. ** Banda’s 2024 season was actually 19th all time, but I included it for comparison purposes and because I wanted to.

First of all, let’s get this out of the way: Sam Kerr was an absolute terror when she played in the NWSL. Despite leaving the league for Chelsea after the 2019 season, she still has the second (18) , third (17) and fourth (16) most goals scored in a season, with only Temwa Chaŵinga’s 2025 season (20) surpassing her. Kerr is one of the great strikers of the century, but even during her time on Chicago and Sky Blue (now Gotham) she was not as critical to the goal-scoring output as the top two on this list, Lauren Holiday and Crystal Dunn.

Back in 2013, Holiday was involved in an astounding two-thirds of the goals her team put into the net in all manners except penalty kicks, and two years later, Crystal Dunn —yes, the same player who started at left back for the U.S. Women’s National Team Saturday — gave her a run for her money by being involved in 64% of her team’s non-penalty goals when she was playing for the Washington Spirit.

During the 2024 season, Banda ended up contributing to exactly half of the Pride’s 38 non-penalty goals, and early returns indicate that this season is on pace for something similar. There is more than half of the season still left to play, but through 10 games Banda sits third on the all-time list with her eight goal contributions of the Pride’s 13 non-penalty goals. The Pride have scored 18 goals when you look at the league standings, but three of those came from own goals and the other two were penalty kicks, which of course were taken by Marta, because GOAT.

Whether it is actually a good thing that a player plays such an outsized role in the goal-contribution percentage is an unanswerable question, because so much of that is tied into offensive game plans and every team sets up differently. The Pride won the shield and the cup last season with Banda as the clear focal point of the offense, and despite a slightly rockier start this season, they are still in third place through 10 games.

I wrote a few weeks ago about how teams are defending the Pride, and Banda in particular, this season, and I expect that teams will continue to try to aggressively deny her the ball in areas where she can build up a head of steam and try to force her wide, preventing her from getting into the box and unleashing one of the league’s most powerful shots. It is all well and good to try that, but Banda is one of the world’s best strikers, and while most NWSL teams have excellent defenders, few are world class.

The Pride should, and do, look to exploit this advantage frequently, which plays a major role in why Banda ranks so high in her percentage of goal contributions. Her incredible talent and skill, in conjunction with the Pride’s focus on finding ways to get her the ball in the attacking third of the field, make it likely that she stays near the top of the all-time rankings as the 2025 season continues. By the end of the season I believe that she will dip below 60%, especially with several of her more attack-minded teammates like Julie Doyle and Summer Yates returning to full health, but I think she ends up above last season’s 50%.

The good news for Pride fans is that if Banda’s percentage decreases, it means that other players are contributing goals, and if it increases, it means that she is contributing goals, so we come out ahead either way. And if she continues to contribute to three out of every five goals and the Pride score handfuls and handfuls of goals, then we come out ahead that way as well. I like all these positive outcomes!

In their next match the Pride will host a Houston team which is in the bottom three in the standings and the bottom four in terms of goals allowed, so the team should have ample opportunities to score. If the Pride score three goals and Banda is involved in all three, she will move to the top of the chart, and while that would be pretty cool, the three that the Pride will care most about in that game is three points.

But as hosts Michael Citro and Dave Rohe often say on the SkoPurp PawedCast, por qué no los dos? And while I am working in a Spanish phrase, three more Banda goal contributions and three points sounds as sweet as tres leches, no?

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Orlando Pride

Orlando Pride vs. Houston Dash: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Pride need to do to secure a victory against Houston at home?

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

The Orlando Pride are back in action against the Houston Dash Saturday at Inter&Co Stadium. If you don’t listen to SkoPurp Soccer: An Orlando Pride PawedCast you may not have heard that I will be there in person to enjoy the match with all of you. The NWSL returns from the international break as do several Pride players. We’ve already seen that every team is bringing its best when it plays Orlando, so what do the Pride need to do to take all three points from Houston at home?

Open the Offense

Barbra Banda scored a hat trick against the Utah Royals in the team’s last match. It was the first in Orlando Pride history, but hopefully it won’t be the last. I’m not expecting another hat trick from anyone this weekend, but there’s no reason to think that the Pride can’t score three goals in total. Of course, if Banda or another Pride player wants to do so, I won’t object.

Houston has allowed 16 goals this season and has a -6 goal differential. How difficult the team is to break down is still a question. I’m not certain if Houston will continue with Abby Smith in goal or if longtime keeper Jane Campbell will make her return to the starting lineup. Smith has started the last three matches, allowing six goals (an average of two per match) and has 10 saves. Campbell started the first seven matches, allowing 10 goals (an average of 1.43 per match) and has 22 saves. I’d be good not having to worry about Campbell, even if the dropoff in quality to Smith isn’t that great.

Limit the Gaffes

Looking to the other goal, I want to see Anna Moorhouse clean things up. She’s not been bad this season, but there have been more errors than last season. We know she can step it up as we saw last season, but if the Pride are to win this match — and others against better teams — I need her to get back to 2024 levels.

Of course, she’s not the only one in the defense that needs to re-adjust. Kylie Nadaner had her best season in 2024 but has reverted just a bit so far in 2025. I’m hoping the international break allowed her and the rest of the Pride to reset. Houston has only scored 10 goals this season, but the Dash have Messiah Bright. The former Pride striker only has one goal this year, but former Pride players always seem to play well against their former team, so I want the defense focused on getting a clean sheet.

Marta and the Midfield

I will probably keep asking for this until I get it or I’m proven it’s not the best strategy. I want Marta to drop back in the attack just a bit. She doesn’t need to be the one trying to keep up with Banda every time the team pushes forward. Ally Watt is a better partner up top. What Marta can do well is facilitate the attack and be the late runner to clean up any loose balls in the box.

If Marta drops to the more traditional 10 spot, that will allow Angelina to also drop back just a bit. I think she is also better in that traditional eight spot. Allow Angelina to be the one who is linking the play through the midfield, where she can either take it herself, or connect with Marta to set up the attacks. This is something I feel has largely been missing so far this season. A match against a team like Houston is the right time to get that fixed.


That’s what I’ll be looking for on Saturday when I’m actually in the stadium. Where do you think the game will be won or lost? Let us know in the comments section.

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Orlando Pride

Orlando Pride Sign Forward Simone Jackson Through 2028

The Orlando Pride have signed 22-year-old forward Simone Jackson through the 2028 NWSL season.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

The Orlando Pride announced the signing of former University of Southern California forward Simone Jackson today. The 22-year-old’s deal is through the 2028 season.

“We are thrilled to welcome Simone Jackson to the Orlando Pride family through 2028. Her versatility, technical ability, and quickness immediately impressed our technical staff, but it’s her character and personality that truly make her a perfect fit for our culture,” Pride Vice President of Soccer Operations and Sporting Director Haley Carter said in a club press release. “Simone represents exactly the kind of player and person we want to invest in as we build the future of this club. Her signing reflects our commitment to bringing in talent that will help us compete at the highest level while embodying the values that make the Pride special.”

While Jackson is a new signing, the attacker isn’t new to the Pride. She was with the team during preseason as a non-roster invitee, playing well enough to earn a spot on the roster.

“I’m incredibly excited and honored to join the Orlando Pride. From the moment I arrived, I felt the special culture this club has built and knew this was where I wanted to be,” Jackson said in the club’s release. “The vision the coaching staff shared with me aligns perfectly with my goals as a player, and I can’t wait to contribute on the field and connect with our amazing fans. Orlando has such a rich soccer community, and I’m thrilled to call this city home for the next chapter of my career. I’m ready to put in the work every day to help bring championships to this club and make an impact both on and off the field.”

Prior to joining the Pride for preseason, Jackson spent four years at the University of Southern California. She played in 75 games for the Trojans, scoring 22 goals and adding 13 assists. Her best season was her senior year, where she accumulated 1,304 minutes and scored six goals, second most on the team.

The Redondo Beach, CA native was a member of the All-Big Ten third team in 2024, first-team All-Pac-12 in 2022, third-team All-Pac-12 in 2023 and 2021, and a Pac 12 All-Freshman Team honoree in 2021.

Internationally, Jackson represented the United States at multiple youth levels, including at the 2022 FIFA U-20 Women’s World Cup. She scored her team’s lone goal in a 3-1 loss to Japan in that tournament. Jackson participated at every youth level for the U.S., starting at U-14.

What It Means For Orlando

Having successfully put a strong starting lineup together, Carter and Pride Head Coach Seb Hines now work on the team’s depth. And that’s where Jackson comes in. The forward will be behind starter Barbra Banda and Ally Watt on the depth chart. However, Banda could depart at times for international duty with Zambia, giving Jackson a spot on the bench.

At 22 years old, the young attacker has plenty of time to develop. She’ll be playing with seasoned professionals in the same position, providing valuable role models. Barring injuries, she probably won’t get much playing time this year but could be a key player for the Pride in the future.

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