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Orlando Pride Scenarios for the Shield, Playoff Matchups, and Broken Records

With just four matches left to play, the Pride are on the verge of some monumental accomplishments.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

The Orlando Pride are in a great position with just four games remaining in the NWSL regular season. After remaining undefeated through the first 22 games, they have established a seven-point lead at the top of the table. With a matchup against the second-place Washington Spirit looming, the Pride could win the NWSL Shield as soon as this weekend — at Inter&Co Stadium no less. There is everything to play for in the coming weeks, so how do the scenarios play out for the shield, potential playoff opponents, and several NWSL regular-season records that may still be broken?

The Shield Race

The NWSL shield is the trophy awarded to the club that finishes the regular season with the highest point total, and though the Orlando Pride are clear favorites, there is still work to be done to clinch the award. Shown below are the four teams that remain in the shield race and the “magic number” needed for the Pride to finish above them, with more explanation below the table.

PositionTeamPointsMagic Number
1Orlando Pride54
2Washington Spirit476
3Gotham FC443
4KC Current432
Orlando’s magic numbers against the other shield contenders.

The magic number is used to measure what results are needed for the leading team (Orlando) to be mathematically guaranteed of finishing in first place. The magic number for each opposing team counts down until it reaches zero, at which point that team cannot match Orlando’s point total. Specifically, an Orlando win reduces the magic number by three points for each team in the table, and one point for a tie, because they have extended their lead by that many points. When a team below Orlando loses, it reduces that team’s magic number by three points because there are that many fewer points available to gain and catch Orlando. Therefore, when an opposing team ties, it creates a special case that reduces the magic number by two points, because they had the opportunity for three points but dropped two of them.

The example of the Kansas City Current from the table above helps to explain the magic number. As it stands today, the Pride could finish with 54 points, at worst, after four straight losses. Kansas City could finish with 55 points after four wins and claim the shield. If the Current drop two points, or Orlando gains two points, the magic number goes to zero and the Current cannot win the shield. The same math applies for Gotham, where the Pride only need one win (or one loss from Gotham) to make the magic number zero. This shows just how narrow of a path to the shield now remains for Gotham and Kansas City, so only the Spirit can offer a credible challenge.

Considering the Spirit, this weekend’s matchup looms extra large, because head-to-head matches count double in a title race. If the Pride defeat the Spirit, that would reduce the magic number by six, three for Orlando winning and three for Washington losing, and the shield race would be over. For the three remaining matches of the season, Head Coach Seb Hines would be able to rest the squad intelligently and enter the postseason in the best shape possible to play for the NWSL championship. But, don’t expect too much rest for key players, as there would still be the undefeated season to play for.

Even a tie on Sunday would serve Orlando well and reduce the magic number by three. Fans would love it if the club won the shield at home so they could be present for the celebrations, but if that doesn’t happen Sunday, collective stress levels would be better served by winning on the road at Portland or Gotham, rather than waiting until the final match of the season to clinch the trophy. It would also be possible for the Pride to win the shield by tying each remaining match of the season, meaning that the club cannot go undefeated in the regular season and somehow lose the shield.

A loss against the Spirit is where things would start to look a little more challenging for the Pride. After a hypothetical loss, Hines would have to refocus the squad in order to win two of the final three matches, assuming perfection from the Spirit. Unfortunately, Washington does not have any games against top-five opposition after playing the Pride, as the Spirit face Racing Louisville and the Chicago Red Stars at home and North Carolina Courage on the road. While the Spirit have been playing without several injured stars, notably Trinity Rodman and Croix Bethune, they showed their quality and depth by beating Angel City FC away from home in their most recent outing. Fortunately for Orlando, the Pride also currently boast a goal differential eight goals better than the Spirit, so in the unlikely possibility that this tiebreaker matters in back-to-back seasons, the Pride should have the edge.


Playoff Matchups

Behind the excitement of the shield race is the importance of matchups when it comes to the NWSL playoffs. For simplicity’s sake, it is not unreasonable to assume a top-two finish for the Pride, considering the long odds of multiple teams finishing above them after the coming matches. A top-two finish is significant not only because it ensures the first round is played against opposition from middle clubs in the final NWSL table, but it also ensures home field advantage in the second round of the playoffs if the team advances. Despite these advantages, anything can happen in the NWSL playoffs, as Gotham showed last year by finishing in the final playoff spot and then winning three matches en route to being crowned NWSL champions.

Looking at the rest of the NWSL table (below) shows just how many teams Orlando could still face in the first round of the NWSL playoffs. Since Orlando can technically finish anywhere from first to fourth, and no teams have been eliminated from contention, the Pride could play any team in the league in the first round.

PositionTeamPoints
5North Carolina Courage35
6Chicago Red Stars29
7Portland Thorns28
8Bay FC28
9Racing Louisville25
10San Diego Wave22
11Angel City FC22
12Seattle Reign FC20
13Utah Royals FC18
14Houston Dash17
The race for the final playoff positions.

By using some common sense, however, we can whittle the number of potential opponents down to four probable candidates. Based on a top-two finish by Orlando, the Pride would face a team that finishes either seventh or eighth. Then, since only four matches remain and none of the teams in the middle of the pack are lighting the world on fire of late, it’s likely that a team within five points of these positions will end the season there.

This list of expected first-round opponents then can be pared down to Chicago, Portland, Bay, and Racing, as it seems to be just too much ground for the others to make up. The Pride have had solid results against their potential playoff opponents, racking up five wins and two draws, with a match against Portland still upcoming. It doesn’t seem that long ago that Portland and Orlando met on a combined 13-match winning streak, but fortunes have diverged greatly since then and Portland has the league’s worst form and risks missing the playoffs altogether. As the Orlando Pride well know, every team in the league has their day, and the team is sure to take the matchup seriously, no matter who the opponent ends up being.


League Records in Reach

While wins and trophies are all that a roster and coaching staff should worry about, us fans often like to keep track of records set along the way. Due to Orlando’s elite play all season, many of the loftiest league records could be broken before the season ends. Several of these records could take all 26 matches to break, but some, like the points record of 57, set by the Courage in 2018, can be surpassed in the same number of matches that they were set.

NWSL RecordTotalYear and Team2024 Orlando Pride
Most Points572018 Courage54
Fewest Goals Conceded172018 Courage
2021 Thorns
13
Largest Goal Differential+362018 Courage+27
Most Clean Sheets132017 & 2018 Courage
2021 Thorns
12
Longest Win Streak(already broken)2024 Pride8
Longest Unbeaten Streak(already broken)2024 Pride22
NWSL regular-season records that the Pride could break/have broken in 2024.

After going undefeated for 22 matches so far this season, the Orlando Pride are favorites for the NWSL shield. Their additional reward for winning that trophy would be favorable matchups in the playoffs, including home field advantage for the quarterfinals and semifinals. Both of these would have been considered lofty goals at the start of the season, but now, everything is within reach, including some truly incredible records.

Based on the way they’ve carried themselves all year, the players are sure to give it their all and play some damn fine soccer in the final regular season matches. Sunday, they could have a trophy to show for it, and all of Inter&Co Stadium would be there to share in the celebrations. If Sunday isn’t their day, the Pride will have a few more chances for glory in the weeks that follow.

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Orlando Pride Offense through the Lens of Goal-Creating Actions

Can an analysis of the Pride’s offense in 2024 using goal-creating actions help project how they will perform in 2025?

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

We are one week away from the season opener for Orlando City and three weeks away from the season opener for the Orlando Pride, wrapping up what has felt like a long off-season. Oddly enough, both off-seasons were the shortest in club history, but they have felt extra long, probably because of the elongated conversations around several players and whether these players would stay in Orlando, leave Orlando, or come to Orlando.

At this point, the rosters are probably pretty close to being locked in to what they will be when the seasons open, but there still may be some final changes, and if there are, hopefully they will be positive ones for the teams in purple.

Several weeks ago, I wrote about how the Pride were bringing back all of their goals and nearly all of their minutes played from 2024, and while that has changed now with Adriana’s departure to Al Qadsiah FC in Saudi Arabia, the Pride are still bringing back most of their goals and minutes and will likely be among the favorites, if not the favorite, when sportsbooks start posting their NWSL futures odds. As of this moment, I cannot find anyone who has odds posted, and very few sites have released their season previews and power rankings, but I have a hunch that the defending champions, bringing back nearly every key contributor, will be near the top of those lists. And they should be because, and let’s revel in this once again, they are the defending champions!

The Pride are bringing back two players who combined for 28 goals in NWSL play last season. If we include the playoffs, then Barbra Banda scored 17 goals and Marta added 11, and they ranked second and fourth, respectively, for most goals scored. What interested me, however, was that they only combined together to create four of those goals as a partnership.

Using Opta’s tracking and fbref.com’s database of goals, I was able to create a ranking of the most prolific partnerships during the 2024 NWSL season. For every goal scored, Opta tracks what they call goal-creating actions, which are the two plays immediately preceding a goal that led to a player scoring a goal. For example, let’s flash back to the playoff semifinal when Banda gave the Pride a 3-1 lead against the Current by smashing a ball into the net harder than a home run off the bat of Elly De La Cruz (my son’s favorite baseball player). In related news, I am also excited for baseball season.

In the video below, Banda is the goal scorer, and the prior two plays are a completed pass by Haley McCutcheon to Kylie Strom and then the assist on a completed pass from Strom to Banda. Opta tracks those as the two goal-creating actions for Banda’s goals, with Strom’s pass being the final action preceding the goal.

Staying in that same game, I am sure you remember Marta’s wondergoal (wondergoal is still underselling how great of a goal this was — this was an all-time great run down the field) that made the score 3-1. On that play, Banda received the assist, as she passed the ball to Marta, but the two goal-creating actions were actually both by Marta as she beat multiple defenders and the goalkeeper off the dribble to get herself into shooting position. Opta’s tracking shows this goal as scored by Marta, from two consecutive goal-creating actions of Marta take-ons. Yes Banda passed the ball to Marta, but this goal was created by Marta’s magic, and the GOAT taking on and beating multiple defenders.

Opta tracks the following seven different types of goal-creating actions:

  • Fouled
  • Interception (stealing a pass)
  • Pass (live-ball)
  • Pass (dead-ball)
  • Shot
  • Tackle (stealing the ball directly from the other team’s player)
  • Take-On (beating a defender off the dribble)

During the 2024 NWSL season there were 502 total goals scored, including the playoffs and including own goals. Opta’s tracking does not have an assist for every goal, nor does it have a goal-creating action for every goal, and that makes sense for how soccer is played. Sometimes goals happen unassisted, as a player, usually a striker, makes a tackle or interception themselves and then is in on goal and scores unassisted, or a player wins a loose ball in the box and slots it home, or a player finishes a rebound and the official scorer does not give the asisst to the player who took the original shot.

Opta’s tracking shows 481 non-own goals in 2024, with 312 of those goals (approximately 65%) having an assist. Of those 481 non-own goals, 447 (approximately 93%) had a primary goal-creating action, and this also makes sense, as it is much more likely, based on the list of goal-creating actions, that there was one of those than there was a true assist. I am much more interested in the goal-creating actions than I am the assists, as I believe they are better descriptors of how goals happened.

Looking at the Pride, which I know is really why you are here, the following table lists the player combinations that led to more than two goals during 2024:

Player CombinationGoals
Adriana and Barbra Banda5
Barbra Banda and Marta4
Ally Watt and Barbra Banda4
Adriana and Marta3
Barbra Banda and Julie Doyle3

For these counts it does not matter who created the goal and who scored it, these were the two Pride players involved in the final product. It may be a bit of a surprise to see that the top combination was Adriana and Banda, but Adriana scored three goals in 2024 that came directly from a foul on Banda (5/11 vs. Bay FC), a rebound from a Banda shot (6/30 vs. Angel City), and a foul on Banda (10/20 vs. Gotham). Banda scored two goals that resulted from an Adriana live-ball pass (5/19 vs. Seattle) and a rebound from an Adriana shot (7/6 vs. Kansas City). Adriana and Banda’s five goal combinations tied them for fourth in all of NWSL in 2024, with the combination of Esther González and Yazmeen Ryan of Gotham FC leading the league with seven.

It is a fair criticism of this statistic to say something along the lines of, “Well, Adriana did not intend to miss her shot and for Banda to score the rebound, so who really cares if it was an Adriana shot or someone else’s shot that Banda rebounded?”. Conversely, Adriana had to put a shot on target and have struck it well enough that it could not be saved and held, and Banda had to beat other players to the ball to score it, and both players had to have earned the right to be on the field at the same time.

I do not think goal-creating actions are the be-all, end-all, but I do think they tell more of a story than just assists. As another example, the action that immediately preceded five of Banda’s 17 goals was her winning a take-on against her defender. That total led the league in 2024, and she and Portland’s Sophia Smith were the only two players with more than three take-ons that led directly to goals in 2024. Two of those five goals for Banda had teammates credited with assists, but just as with the Marta goal against Kansas City when Banda was credited with the assist, the goals really came more from the effort by Banda as the goal scorer rather than from the pass that gave her the ball initially.

On a different note, those top combinations I showed tally up to 19 of the 54 goals scored by the Pride in 2024. The Pride benefitted from three own goals, meaning they scored 51 goals themselves, so those top combinations did not even account for half (37%) of the team’s goals last season. That is the sign of a team that is diverse in its attack, and even though Adriana is gone, they bring back everyone else who was involved in all of their goals, plus they will have Grace Chanda, Simone Charley, and Prisca Chilufya as additional offensive options in 2025. Losing Adriana will hurt, but I think the Pride will have her departure covered.

Goals are exciting, and of course are how teams win games, so as watchers and analyzers of soccer, we spend a lot of time thinking about how they happened. I like goal-creating actions as a statistic but I know on many goals there are different plays that happened in succession that led to the goal, and the goal-creating action stat only shows the final two plays. Those final two plays are critical though, so I think it is a good statistic to analyze, just in conjunction with others as well.

It is no accident that Banda was all over that list of top Pride combinations, she led the league in goal-creating actions and goal-creating actions plus goals, and with her available for the full season in 2025 I expect that she is going to be right near the top again this season, if not the league leader for the second consecutive season.

I cannot wait to watch the Pride’s offense this year. I think they are going to be creating goals and goal-creating actions at an even higher rate than last season.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando Pride Acquires Spanish International Oihane Hernandez

The Pride have acquired Spanish right back Oihane Hernandez from Real Madrid Femenil, signing her to a two-year deal.

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

The Orlando Pride defensive signings continue, but this time it’s a new player instead of a new contract. The club announced the signing of Spanish international defender Oihane Hernández this afternoon to a two-year contract through the 2026 season with a mutual option for 2027.

“Oihane is a technically gifted defender who excels in both defensive organization and distribution from the back,” Pride Vice President of Soccer Operations and Sporting Director Haley Carter said in a club press release. “She brings world-class experience and a championship mindset from her time with Spain’s national team. Oihane’s ability to perform in high-pressure situations and her tactical understanding and ability to read the game will be invaluable assets as we continue building a championship-caliber roster. We’re delighted to bring her to the City Beautiful.”

The 24-year-old has been a regular for the Spanish Women’s National Team and was a member of the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup champions.

“I’m excited to join the Orlando Pride and begin this new chapter in my career,” Hernández said in the club’s release. “The club’s vision and ambition really influenced me to make the move to Orlando. “I am impressed by the professional environment and the enthusiasm of the staff, teammates, and passionate fanbase. I am ready to give everything for the badge and build on the team’s success.”

Hernández joins the Pride from Real Madrid Femenino for an undisclosed fee. The right back spent the last two seasons at Real Madrid, making 31 appearances and recorded a pair of assists. Prior to moving to the Spanish capital, she played for Athletic Club Femenino in Bilbao, representing the club from 2019 to 2023. She made 109 appearances for the club, scoring three times.

Internationally, Hernandez came up through the youth ranks with Spain, playing in the 2016 FIFA U-17 Women’s World Cup, the 2017 UEFA Women’s Under-17 Championship, and the 2018 UEFA Women’s Under-19 Championship. That led to her making her senior team debut on Sept. 2, 2022 in a World Cup qualifier against Hungary.

During the 2023 World Cup run, Hernandez played in six games for the eventual champions. She started in the round of 16 and quarterfinals before coming off the bench in the World Cup Final against England.

More recently, Hernandez played for Spain in four games of the 2024 Summer Olympics. She won a bronze medal in that tournament.

What It Means For Orlando

Hernandez comes in to be the starting right back for the Pride. It’s interesting that the signing comes on the same day that the club awarded Cori Dyke a new contract. During her 2024 rookie season, Dyke became the Pride’s starting right back, taking over when Brianna Martinez was injured and playing well in the stretch run and postseason.

This move creates more depth at a position that was already well stocked. Prior to this move, the players that would likely play right back other than Dyke were Martinez, Haley McCutcheon, and Emily Sams. However, this move allows McCutcheon to remain in the defensive midfield and Sams to remain at center back, where she won the NWSL Defender of the Year last season.

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Orlando Pride Extend Contract of Defender Cori Dyke through 2027

The Pride extend a second defender through 2027 in as many days with a new deal for Cori Dyke.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Just a day after locking down defender Emily Sams through 2027, the Orlando Pride have done the same with defender Cori Dyke. The Pride announced this morning that Dyke’s contract has been extended through the 2027 season. This extension comes on the heels of an outstanding rookie season, in which she stepped into the starting right back role down the stretch, helping Orlando win the NWSL Shield and NWSL Championship in 2024.

“Cori has consistently demonstrated her value both on and off the field since joining the Pride, and we’re thrilled to secure her future with the club,” Orlando Pride Vice President and Sporting Director Haley Carter said in a club press release. “Her tactical intelligence, versatility, and leadership qualities make her an integral part of what we’re building here in Orlando. Beyond her technical abilities, Cori embodies the culture and commitment to excellence that we strive for. This extension is a reflection of the hard work and dedication she brings to this organization every day and we’re excited to see her continue to grow and contribute to our team’s success.”  

The Pride selected Dyke in the second round (No. 22 overall) in the 2024 NWSL Draft out of Penn State. She signed a one-year contract on March 11, 2024. However, she impressed enough to inked a new deal through 2025 with an option for 2026 on July 10, 2024. Dyke has impressed the club in her short time with Orlando, earning yet another new deal.

The 24-year-old native of San Jose, CA made 21 appearances (11 starts) in the Pride’s 26 NWSL regular-season games during her rookie campaign, logging 1,095 minutes. She didn’t score a goal, but she notched one assist. Dyke attempted one (off-target) shot and completed 425 of her 542 pass attempts (78%) in her first professional season. Defensively, she finished with 20 tackles, 11 interceptions, and 23 headed duels. In the Pride’s playoff run, Dyke started all three games, playing 254 minutes, helping Orlando lift its second trophy of the season.

Dyke also appeared in two of the Pride’s three matches in the NWSL x Liga MX Femenil Summer Cup last year, starting both and recording 180 minutes.

The Pride recorded a clean sheet in 12 of Dyke’s 26 appearances a year ago, including in the NWSL Championship match against Washington.

Dyke played in 108 games (all starts) for the Penn State Nittany Lions in her college career, recording 9,069 minutes, nine goals, and nine assists. She played as a central midfielder for the first four years in college, but moved to center back for her final season. Despite moving to the back line, the 2023 season was her most productive offensively, as she recorded five goals and six assists.

Dyke received several accolades during her five collegiate seasons. As a freshman, she was named to the Big Ten All-Freshman Team and Freshman Best XI First Team by Top Drawer Soccer. During her final season in the midfield, she was named to the 2022 Big Ten Women’s All-Tournament Team. Dyke moved to center back for her senior season and was named Big Ten Defender of the Year. She was also named All-Big Ten First Team and the United Soccer Coaches named her a second-team All-American and first-team All-North Region.

On the international stage, Dyke has represented the U.S. Women’s National Team from the U-14 through U-23 levels, helping the U-19 team win a CFA Tournament in 2017. 

What It Means for Orlando

Carter locking up players she believes will be part of the team’s core moving forward is nothing new. Dyke was thrown into a difficult position as a rookie and helped keep some of the league’s best attacking players quiet in the second half of the 2024 season and throughout the playoffs. She provides plenty of versatility with major college experience in central midfield and at center back in addition to having shown her ability to play fullback at the professional level last season.

Any time you can extend the contract of a young, talented player, it can only be seen as a positive. Dyke’s role in 2025 remains to be seen, as the team is getting players healthy again and defender Carson Pickett is going through a full training camp under Seb Hines. The back line would be just fine if it remained as it was at the end of 2024, but there is some belief that it can be even better in 2025. Where Dyke fits in will be revealed when the season starts, but she is an excellent option whether starting or providing depth and pushing her teammates to be better.

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