The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship

There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.

Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year

NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.

Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year

Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.

2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled

The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach

FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.

Free Kicks

• District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.

• Atlanta United interim head coach Rob Valentino, who was an Orlando City B assistant coach in 2015 and played for the USL Lions, spoke on Atlanta’s Cinderella run this postseason ahead of his team’s clash with Orlando City on Sunday.
• CF Montreal signed Canadian center back Joel Waterman to a contract extension that will keep him with the club through 2027 with an option for 2028 as well.
• D.C. United signed goalkeeper Jordan Farr from the Tampa Bay Rowdies on a two-year deal. Farr had 11 shutouts with the Rowdies this year and joins a D.C. side that declined the contract options for both Tyler Miller and Alex Bono last month.
• American forward Catarina Macario had an assist for Chelsea in a 3-0 win against Celtic in the Women’s Champions League.
• Spanish midfielder Juan Mata joined San Diego FC’s ownership group ahead of the club’s inaugural MLS season next year.
• Costa Rican club Alajuelense, which is the highest-ranked team in Central America, has hired a legal firm regarding FIFA allowing both Pachuca and Club Leon to take part in the 2025 Club World Cup despite having the same owner.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

Good Wednesday morning, Mane Landers. For long time readers, you might remember me as a staple in your Lion Links but having stepped away on sabbatical. Today, I’m honored to be called off the bench and fill in for Dave. My life has been filled with being a first-time father along with taking over as commissioner of a soccer league and my normal day job. Through all of it, I have stayed true to catching as many Orlando City matches as I can or at least the highlights. TML is my go-to source for all things purple, so I’m glad to pitch in and talk about what is happening around the City Beautiful and soccer once again. So, let’s get into the links!

Lions’ Not-So Secret Weapons

Orlando City is ready to take on Atlanta United on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. According to Andrew Wiebe of MLSsoccer.com, midfielder Martín Ojeda and the home field advantage of Inter&Co Stadium will be the key to victory for Oscar Pareja to finally lift the cup with Orlando. On the other side of the ball, Atlanta United goalkeeper Brad Guzan is in impeccable form and will give the Five Stripes an opportunity to advance again despite being the underdogs.

Seb Hines Wins Major Award

The National Women’s Soccer League announced Pride Head Coach Seb Hines has been named the 2024 NWSL Coach of the Year. Following his stint as a player for Orlando City and coaching at the youth level, Hines became the Pride’s interim head coach in June 2022 before getting the gig full time. This season was his best yet with Orlando, finding 18 wins and leading a team that scored a club-record 46 goals along the way. He learned about his award from his players:

Internationals Take The Pitch

Tuesday gave some Lions the chance to represent their home nations. Orlando City right back Dagur Dan Thorhallsson entered the UEFA Nations League match between Wales and Iceland in the 75th-minute, but Iceland fell 4-1 after scoring first. Goalkeeper Pedro Gallese gained another start for Peru in its CONMEBOL World Cup qualifier against Argentina but couldn’t earn a shutout in a 1-0 loss.

Record MLS Signing Reported

FC Cincinnati has splashed the cash and has reportedly completed the signing of 23-year-old Cercle Brugge forward Kévin Denkey. The transfer fee of $16.2 million is an MLS record, passing the previous $16 million that Atlanta United spent to acquired Thiago Almada in 2022. The signing of Denkey to a four-year contract fills a gap at forward for Cincinnati. The length of the deal appears to make him the centerpiece of the team as only one player on the roster has guaranteed contract years beyond 2026, and only striker Kevin Kelsy has option years into 2028 and 2029, but he is currently on loan.

Inter&Co Stadium Will Host Orlando Cup

Coming in January 2025, the Orlando Cup Pro Series will bring clubs Santos FC, Atlético Nacional, and Fortaleza to our home stadium. These will be preseason matches for the participating teams to help them tune up and grow their brands in the United States.

Free Kicks

• Gerardo “Tata” Martino will address the media in a final news conference on Friday along with Inter Miami co-owner Jorge Mas as he is expected to step down from his head coach position for personal reasons.
• Instantly linked to the managerial vacancy at Inter Miami is former FC Barcelona player and manager Xavi Hernández.
• Nashville SC acquired 23-year-old former Norway youth international midfielder Edvard Tagseth from Rosenborg BK through 2026 with an option for 2027.
• Washington Spirit owner Michele Kang is set to donate $30 million dollars to U.S. Soccer’s women and girls programs over the next five years.
• The United Soccer League announced that USL Dallas, North Texas’ newest professional soccer team, will join the USL Championship for the 2027 season.
• Manchester United is offering €30 million and a struggling player in a swap deal to gain the services of Victor Osimhen.
• Patrick Vieira is likely to step into the managerial role at Genoa after Alberto Gilardino was unexpectedly fired.
• Miami FC and a professional women’s team could be getting a new 10,000-seat stadium in Homestead.

That’s a wrap on links for the day. I wish you all the best with the rest of you week. Who else is excited for a big Orlando soccer weekend? Vamos Orlando!