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Orlando City’s Usage Rate and Shot Creation Through Seven Games

An analysis of Orlando City’s usage and shot-creation rates and a comparison of their top performers to the rest of MLS.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

As so often happens in articles about soccer, I am going to open by writing about…not soccer. The NBA regular season is in its final days, and so a lot of the discourse on podcasts or TV shows about basketball is about who deserves what awards for the 2024-2025 season. This is not the place for that discussion, though I do think my son’s favorite Orlando Magic player, Paolo Banchero, has had a great season. What I want to explore as it relates to basketball awards is how the concept of “usage” plays a big role when comparing players against one another.

Usage in basketball is essentially a measure of what percent of a team’s possessions were finished by a given player, whether it was via a shot, turnover, or offensive foul. There are different formulas for usage, as some get even more intricate as it relates to the definition of a possession, but we are going to change the subject to soccer momentarily so let’s not dwell on the basketball metric any longer than necessary. The critical part of usage is that it is easier to put up scoring numbers — the numbers fans often default to when evaluating who are the best players, when you have a much higher usage rate. If most possessions end with the ball in your hands, then the offense is likely designed around you, and the opportunities will be there for more baskets.

In soccer, usage can be looked at similarly, with goals instead of baskets, and I will draw on the work of several other authors in how they have calculated usage, or, as they often refer to it, possession-ending actions. In soccer it is similar to basketball, but we will get more nuanced with the definition. Here are the possession-ending actions I used, with all data coming from Opta’s tracking on fbref.com:

  • Shots
  • Incomplete passes
  • Failed Ttake-ons
  • Dispossessions
  • Miscontrols

I looked at this data in two ways: first by normalizing the data by taking the total number of possession-ending actions and calculating it on a per-90-minutes-played basis (PEA / 90) , and then also by taking a player’s possession-ending actions and dividing them by the total number of possession-ending actions for the whole team, to see their percentage (usage rate). Here is a look at Orlando City’s performance thus far this season (I’m only including field players who have played at least 300 minutes, but a quick shout out to Gustavo Caraballo for generating a PEA per 90 minutes of 40 in his nine minutes played thus far this season. Gustavo was really goosing the throttle when he had the ball. I’ll see myself out.):

PlayerMins PlayedPEA / 90Usage Rate
Rodrigo Schlegel6307.35.5%
Alex Freeman57515.210.5%
Martín Ojeda57115.410.5%
Marco Pašalić55015.410.2%
Iván Angulo52312.98.1%
Eduard Atuesta51416.19.9%
Luis Muriel49016.39.5%
César Araujo4505.63.0%
Robin Jansson4506.63.6%
Rafael Santos42018.59.4%

It is nice when data backs up the eye test, and the eye test thus far this season definitely shows that Cesar Araujo, Robin Jansson, and Rodrigo Schlegel play conservative soccer, which is critical being that they generally possess the ball in the center of the field near their own goal, whereas the attacking players and the fullbacks are much more likely to be trying to create something on offense, and therefore ending a possession.

I was a little surprised to see Rafael Santos as the player who is ending the most possessions on a per-90-minute basis, but he is someone who is constantly looking to switch the field or play in a cross, and those are low-probability passes that have a low completion rate, meaning they often end a possession.

Usage rate depends heavily on minutes played, as despite the name, it has elements of a counting statistic in it, and it was not surprising to see the top three players in usage rate being non-central defenders who had played a lot of minutes. Santos is again high here because of his style of play, but as it appears that he may be fighting for his starting position, that number will likely drop over the next few games, unless he wins back the left back role.

As a quick aside, only one Orlando City player had a usage rate in double digits during MLS regular-season play in 2024, and as you may have guessed, that player was indeed Facundo Torres, with exactly 10%.

Usage rate is really a statistic that helps identify players who are trying to make something happen (shots, incomplete passes, failed take-ons, dispossessions) or who are targets for teammates trying to make something happen (miscontrols of a ball passed to them), but ultimately what is the most impactful when trying to make something happen is whether a shot gets created, because shots turn into goals, and that is how games are won. If we look at the same group of Lions and focus specifically on creating shots (shot-creating actions + shots taken), the story looks a little different in terms of where those come from:

PlayerMins PlayedShots Created / 90Shots Created %
Rodrigo Schlegel6301.02.4%
Alex Freeman5754.29.4%
Martín Ojeda5718.618.9%
Marco Pašalić5505.712.2%
Iván Angulo5233.16.3%
Eduard Atuesta5146.011.9%
Luis Muriel4907.013.3%
César Araujo4502.84.9%
Robin Jansson4500.20.3%
Rafael Santos4203.86.3%

Alex Freeman, Martin Ojeda and Marco Pašalić lead the way in usage rate, but they are closely grouped together, and Eduard Atuesta, Luis Muriel, and Santos were not too far behind. Ojeda is in a class by himself when it comes to creating shots though — significantly ahead of Muriel and Pašalić. Freeman is well ahead of his defensive teammates too, and if you look at the scatterplot below of all MLS defenders from 2024 and 2025, you can see that there are very few defenders who are as attack minded and who help create as high a percentage of their team’s shots as he does (Freeman’s 2025 season is in the purple bullseye, 2024 defenders played at least 500 minutes and 2025 defenders played at least 300 minutes):

I know someone who was driving the Freeman bandwagon last year, and that person, who may or may not have written the words you are are reading right now, is pretty fired up about how much he is contributing for the Lions this season.

I mentioned earlier that Ojeda is well ahead of his teammates in 2025 in shot-creation percentage, but there are some other MLS players who are far more of a focal point of their team’s offense than he is. The below chart is formatted similarly (the y-axis is on the same scale but the x-axis is not, as attacking players generally create a much higher percentage of shots), and is for midfielders and strikers for for the 2024 and 2025 MLS seasons (Ojeda’s 2025 season is in the purple bullseye, and the same minimum minutes played requirements are in place):

As you might have guessed from the pink bullseye, that is indeed Lionel Messi, with his 25.6 possession-ending actions per 90 minutes and 24% of his team’s shots created thus far this season. Messi’s metrics existing above and to the right of Ojeda’s on this chart is not an indication that he is better than Ojeda (although to be fair, he might be), but what it shows is that he initiates more attacking plays and is involved in more of Miami’s shots than Ojeda is in Orlando City’s.

The age-old quantity vs. quality conversation exists as it relates to looking at usage rate and the percentage of shots created by a player. Whether it be basketball or soccer, teams are not looking for players who create or take shots. They want players who will create and make shots. Taking on defenders every time you receive the ball or constantly trying to hit risky passes will increase the various counting and rate stats, but unless a player is successful with those take-ons and passes, what they will more likely get is a seat on the bench and a pause on accumulating any new stats.

I will be tracking the usage numbers throughout the season, and we will revisit them later in the year to see what has changed. With the return of Duncan McGuire to fitness, it will be interesting to see what that does to Ojeda’s usage if he starts to play more minutes out on the wing — and also to that of Muriel if he more frequently plays as the number 10 instead of playing as a striker. The insertion of David Brekalo into the starting lineup may unleash Freeman even more and evoke more comparisons to his wide receiver father as he flies up the sideline looking to receive a long bomb and turn it into a score.

In the end, the stats from this article are not ones that players will be trying to improve. They are more descriptive statistics that explain how the team — and particularly the offense — has interacted thus far this season. Usage rate may be important, but what is more important is that Orlando City gives the opposing net some serious usage in the match this weekend.

Vamos Orlando!

Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Portland Timbers: Three Keys to Victory

If the Lions can check these three boxes, then they should be in a good position to win Saturday night.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Jeremy Reper

Coming off a midweek U.S. Open Cup match that I think we’d all rather not talk about too much, Orlando City will try to continue a good run of form in league play tomorrow when it faces the Portland Timbers at home. Both teams will be coming off a short week and need wins to keep pace at the top of crowded Eastern and Western conferences. What follows are three things I believe will go a long way towards helping OCSC pick up the win.

Balance the Lineup

Hindsight is of course 20/20, but playing a mostly first-choice lineup on Wednesday coming off short rest on Sunday after an emotional win hurt Orlando City dearly in the end. Nashville SC looked like the fresher team, and several Lions simply seemed to hit physical walls in the second half, which wasn’t surprising considering the amount of minutes that have piled up on their legs over the course of May. Playing a lineup of all the guys who started on Wednesday would be tantamount to suicide, but Oscar Pareja is going to need to strike the right balance between calling on his best XI and getting some fresh legs in. Alex Freeman, Martin Ojeda, Cesar Araujo, and Joran Gerbet could surely do with some rest, and the health of Eduard Atuesta will surely have a big impact on how the starting lineup looks Saturday night. Either way, Papi is going to need to a good job of walking the tightrope.

Focused for the Full 90

Two of the three goals that Nashville scored on Wednesday were in large part due to the Lions being far too lackadaisical in their defending. Whether it was switching off because they were expecting a whistle that never came, or simply allowing an opposition player to have far too much time and space on the ball, moments where OCSC let its collective focus slip came back to haunt the club in a big way. Like Nashville, Portland is a strong side that’s more than capable of punishing mistakes and lapses of concentration. Tired legs and a possible emotional hangover from the Inter Miami victory likely contributed to Orlando delivering an uncharacteristically unfocused performance, but if the Lions can put those issues in the past, it’ll go a long way towards picking up all three points.

Finish Your Chances

While Orlando has been in (mostly) strong form lately, a recurring theme has begun to emerge of the team not finishing some of the best chances that it creates. Andrew DeSalvo spoke about this at length in an excellent piece, and drew upon OCSC’s 3-0 victory over Miami as a prime example of the Lions leaving goals on the table. Yes, the team has still been getting results, but the margins are so small in the game of soccer that repeatedly spurning chances to score will come back to bite you sooner or later. Plus, there’s plenty of danger going into this game: the Lions will be on short rest, with extra tired legs, against one of the best teams in the west. Any and all high-quality chances that the good guys can carve out need to be finished emphatically, and if they are, then don’t be surprised if OCSC comes out with a win.


There you have it, people. If Orlando comes out with a balanced lineup, maintains razor-sharp focus for the entirety of the game, and is ruthless about finishing off great chances to score, then the Lions should be in a great position to get the win at home. All they need to do is go out and make it happen. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links: 5/23/25

Tonight’s OCB match moved to Sunday, Alex Freeman makes USMNT roster, FanDuel Sports Network will stream Orlando Pride games, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Friday! A long weekend is ahead of us and there is plenty of Orlando soccer to enjoy as well. I’ll be celebrating my nephew’s first birthday this weekend, so it should be a nice next couple of days visiting family. Let’s dive right into today’s links from around the soccer world!

OCB Match Moved to Sunday in Kissimmee

As a heads up, Orlando City B is no longer playing today. OCB’s match against Atlanta United 2 was originally scheduled for tonight in Atlanta, but it was instead postponed to 7 p.m. Sunday and relocated to Osceola Heritage Park rather than Fifth Third Stadium in Georgia. Stadium availability was cited as the reason for the change, and the match will be played behind closed doors, although it will still be streamed live. The Young Lions are coming off of a 3-0 win over Inter Miami II and will face an Atlanta team that has drawn its last four games.

Alex Freeman Makes USMNT Training Camp Roster

Orlando City right back Alex Freeman was named to the United States Men’s National Team’s training camp roster ahead of friendlies next month against Turkey and Switzerland. The 20-year-old is one of five uncapped players on the roster and one of 16 MLS players. He’ll likely be behind Sergino Dest on the depth chart, but Joe Scally was not called up for this window. There are many notable players absent, opening the door for players like Freeman across multiple positions to stake their claim to participate in this summer’s Gold Cup and the World Cup next year.

FanDuel Sports Network Will Stream Select Pride Games

The Orlando Pride will have eight of its remaining games streamed on FanDuel Sports Network, including tonight’s road game against the Utah Royals. The regional network, which used to be called Bally Sports before rebranding, is available on various providers throughout Florida and there is an app for streaming as well. Personally, I find this as just another cog in a messy machine of NWSL coverage options, but I imagine this is handy for those out there who are already accustomed to using the network to watch other Floridian pro sports teams.

Winter Garden Lands USL League One Team

Another pro soccer team is coming to Central Florida, as the United Soccer League announced its intent to bring a USL League One team to the area. Central Florida Pro Soccer’s ownership group has plans for a development in Winter Garden that would include a 5,000-seat multi-purpose soccer stadium. The plans also include recreational fields, a hotel, parks, and a walking trail. The group will gather input from the community in the coming months to help determine the team’s colors, badge, and name.

Free Kicks

  • Kansas City Current defender Alana Cook was placed on the season-ending injury list due to a torn ACL, MCL, and meniscus sustained in the club’s match against the Orlando Pride.
  • NJ/NY Gotham FC and Tigres will square off in the Concacaf W Champions Cup final on Saturday. The winner will earn a spot in the 2026 Women’s Champions Cup and the 2028 Women’s Club World Cup.
  • Luka Modric penned a farewell to Real Madrid fans as his time with the club has come to an end. I don’t know where his next stop will be, but I sure hope it’s not with a team the Lions still have to face this year.

That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your holiday weekend!

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Orlando City

Converting More Big Chances Could Propel Orlando City’s Season Into An Epic Universe

An analysis of Orlando City’s conversion rate on big chances and an evaluation of the impact of a small improvement .

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

If you could all hop in the Wayback Machine with me, I would like to take you all the way back to Sunday, May 18, 2025. It was a glorious day, punctuated by a 3-0 victory over Orlando City’s southern rivals Inter Miami. The Five Takeaways article about that game was pretty awesome too, and in that article, the dashingly handsome and spellbindingly brilliant author noted that Orlando City “could, and probably should, have scored five or even six goals” against Miami.

You probably surmised that the author of that Five Takeaways article was me, and I appreciate your immediate recognition of my handsomeness and brilliance. I am also pretty confident that you believe that Orlando City should have scored more than three goals as well, and I am here to tell you that the eye test and the tracking data agree. The wonderful site fotmob.com tracks a statistic coded by analysts from Opta called “big chances,” which they define on their frequently asked questions page as:

A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter. Penalties are always considered big chances.

The key words in their definition are “reasonably be expected,” and so, while the word ‘expected’ is in this definition, do not confuse “reasonably be expected” with “expected goals” (xG). I think of expected goals more like a geography problem, kind of like the game show Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego? Was that an excuse just to mention that one of my best friends was a contestant on that show in 1994 and won a trip to Orlando? A gentleman never tells.

Back to the geography problem, expected goals is really just a mapping exercise, mapping conversion percentages to locations all over a soccer field and then summing up all the shots taken from those locations in a game. By that measure, fbref.com had Orlando City with an xG of 2.9 against Miami, extremely close to the actual output of three goals. Earlier in the season, however, the xG tracking was 1.6 against Toronto…but the Lions scored four goals.

There are countless examples of the real results not matching the xG. While I value xG and just finished reading a great book called How To Win The Premier League: The Inside Story of Football (soccer)’s Data Revolution, which details the history of expected goals and how the author — the former director of research at Liverpool — helped build the first analytics department at a Premier League club using xG as a foundational measurement tool, I still think xG needs to be used alongside other measures and cannot stand alone by itself.

One of the main reasons I think it needs to be combined with other data is that xG requires a shot to be taken, and sometimes that does not happen. Consider Orlando City’s third goal against Miami, if Duncan McGuire’s cross had gone untouched then the xG on that play would have gone from 0.56 to 0.0, because without a shot attempt there is no shot location, and no map coordinates to use to find the xG for that area of the field.

This takes us back to that definition of big chances, which notably does not include a requirement for a shot to be taken. Duncan McGuire’s pass clearly created a chance to score, and that pass, combined with the perfectly timed run from Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, meant that Orlando City had a great opportunity to score from a location where anyone with eyes would think that “a player should reasonably be expected to score.” If Thórhallsson had whiffed, then the xG would have said no sir, you get 0.0 xG, even though everyone who watched that pass would have said, “Oh my, he should have scored that, what a big chance missed.”

Note: Thórhallsson did not miss, and it was glorious.

According to Opta’s tracking, Orlando City had eight big chances in the game against Miami. Which sounds closer to your memory of that match: Orlando City’s xG was 2.9 or Orlando City created eight big chances to score? I think most people probably think of the latter and remember the breakaways and the close-range opportunities and how it seemed like Orlando City had so many clear chances to score.

Looking at the 2025 season to date, the Lions are tied for the MLS lead with 50 big chances thus far, and just as against Miami, you can see that their conversion rate on those big chances has not been great:

ClubBig ChancesBig Chances ConvertedConversion Rate
San Jose502040%
Orlando City501428%
Chicago461839%
Columbus461430%
Nashville411229%
Vancouver402153%
LAFC391436%
Miami392051%
Minnesota391436%
Portland371643%
MLS Average*3412.437%
  • *The MLS Average is the average of every team except Orlando City

If you were wondering, yes, 28% is among the league’s worst conversion rates on big chances. It is tied for second worst, ahead of only Austin, which must be driving its fans up the wall with a 19% conversion rate on 31 big chances. Maybe the release of Wicked at the end of 2024 put the kibosh on good things happening to those in green for a while. Vancouver, on the other hand, is out there Burning Blue like Mariah the Scientist (contemporary pop song alert), converting a league-leading 53% of its big chances.

For Orlando City, however, 28% feels right. It feels terrible, but it also feels right. How many times did it seem like it would be harder not to score than to score, but then the Lions went ahead and did not score? Luis Muriel leads the team with 12 big chances missed (second most in MLS), and while it takes an extreme amount of skill and work to get into position to miss chances, the reality is that 12 times independent analysts thought Muriel should reasonably have been expected to score and he did not.

Anytime there is a lower-than-average performance there is always a question of whether that performance is reality or if there is a regression to the mean coming. In this case, regression to the mean would actually be positive, or something more akin to ascension to the mean. If Orlando City performs at a conversion rate similar to that of the rest of the league, the Lions will score about one additional goal per every 10 big chances, or an additional five goals over their next 50 big chances generated.

Considering that the Lions generated those 50 big chances in 14 games, it is easy math to double that and put Orlando City at 100 big chances after 28 games at the current pace. That extra five goals, were it to happen and the team continued to similarly convert its “small chances,” would net the team 32 goals in the next 14 games, and take the team to 59 after 28 games, with six more games still to play in the season.

Readers of UpRoar, the weekly newsletter for The Mane Land’s Buy Me a Coffee subscribers, which you can subscribe to by clicking this link, will know that Orlando City’s offense is already on pace to break the club’s MLS goal-scoring record, which is…wait for it…59 goals, and so, if the Lions could start converting more of their big chances, then the 2025 team could not only break that record but smash it — like, epically smash it like the Super Smash Brothers.

And speaking of…what better way to celebrate today’s official opening of Epic Universe but to imagine Óscar Pareja and the coaching staff out there training their goal-scoring dragons and super Marco and Luis-gi to tame the dark world of opposition defenses with their Harry Potter-esque offensive wizardry?

That would be epic, and if you are asking me what the coaching staff should do, that is what I pick.

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