Orlando City
Orlando City Was Hot, But Now Is Not — An Explanation
A comparison of the Lions’ start to the season vs. recent form.
Years ago, back during the early days of the new millennium, one of the first websites to ever “go viral” was the matchmaking site AmIHotOrNot.com. I, of course, never visited this site, as I had access to a mirror on the wall and already knew who was the fairest of them all (not me, the mirror was pretty clear about that). But as a college student during those years, I knew of the site and how it quickly was getting millions of views per day. Today’s topic is related to hot and not, but it is the significantly more important topic of Orlando City’s performance on the field during the 2025 season.
During the first six games of the season, the Lions looked better than any previous Orlando City team in the club’s MLS era in terms of early season offensive prowess. The squad led the league in goals scored, the Designated Players were scoring or contributing to nearly every goal, and with Duncan McGuire still to return to add even more firepower, it seemed like there might be the possibility of running out of purple smoke to shoot off in front of The Wall with how many goals Orlando City was scoring.
And then, with apologies to Prince, purple flames were doused by purple rain, and we found out what it sounds like when Lions fans cry. To understand why the offense went from 2.5 goals scored per game to being shut out in three straight matches for the first time since 2018 we need to first consider whether the start to the season was an aberration itself, and had our expectations misaligned for how this team would perform for the rest of the season. Let’s take a look at how the first six games of 2025 compared with the second half of the 2024 regular season (17 games):
| Metric | 2024 Final 17 | 2025 First 6 |
|---|---|---|
| Goals per Game | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Shots on Target per Game | 5.6 | 5.5 |
| Shots on Target % | 40% | 35% |
| Goal Conversions per Shot on Target | 44% | 45% |
| Medium + Long Passes Completed per Game | 215 | 208 |
| Medium + Long Pass Completion % | 81% | 80% |
| Completed Crosses + Switches per Game | 21.4 | 21.0 |
| Progressive Carries + Passes per Game | 64.6 | 57.3 |
| Points Earned per Game | 2.06 | 1.67 |
For the most part it looks like the beginning of the 2025 season picked right up where the 2024 regular season ended (I intentionally excluded the 2024 playoffs from the data because playoff games tend to be played differently than regular-season games). There were some major changes in personnel from 2024 to 2025, but even with the changes in players, the style of play and the formation used by Orlando City remained the same, and most of the offensive stats are nearly exactly the same. Six games is a decent enough sample size to say that those stats from 2025 were not a fluke, and the offensive output that we saw in the second half of the 2024 season could be reasonably expected to continue at a similar pace.
But then it did not. Oh boy has it not. Looking at the same chart, but comparing the 2025 first six games to the 2025 most recent three matches gets an immediate “not hot” vote and is as ugly as a Bubba Sparxxx song.
| Metric | 2025 First 6 | 2025 Last 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Goals per Game | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Shots on Target per Game | 5.5 | 3.0 |
| Shots on Target % | 35% | 31% |
| Goal Conversions per Shot on Target | 45% | 0% |
| Medium + Long Passes Completed per Game | 208 | 171 |
| Medium + Long Pass Completion % | 80% | 74% |
| Completed Crosses + Switches per Game | 21.0 | 12.6 |
| Progressive Carries + Passes per Game | 57.3 | 42.0 |
| Points Earned per Game | 1.67 | 1.0 |
The sharp-eyed observer will note that red cards are not noted anywhere above, and in those last three games Orlando City played nearly 50 minutes with only 10 players. In both of the games when a red card (the ultimate sum of two yellow cards by the same player) was given, Orlando City was ahead in expected goals at the moment the red card was issued, and while those do not count for anything officially, they indicate who was getting shots off from more dangerous locations. I thought Orlando City seemed more likely to score and take all three points in both games up until the dismissal of a player. Instead, of course, the Lions went down a player and immediately had to pivot to a more defensive posture, and with one fewer player on the field, they could not play (or at least maintain) the same style as they had been.
In addition to playing far more conservatively, in both games Orlando City substituted on a defender for a key attacking player within four minutes of the red card, removing Marco Pašalić in the game against New York and Luis Muriel in the game against Montréal. This was effectively a double negative, and not in the way that turns two negatives into a positive. It was more like f(x) = -2x, a function with a slope of -2 and…let me stop right there. It was bad, and hurt the offense to remove a key playmaker and goal scorer.
Another major issue is that the midfield engine of César Araújo and Eduard Atuesta have played a combined 11 minutes in the last three games, and all 11 of those minutes were played by Atuesta in the game against New York and after the red card. Araújo’s absence has definitely been felt, but as he is more of a deep-lying player and defensive destroyer, the team has been able to adequately replace him, but Atuesta’s offensive talents have been sorely missed. Atuesta may not have many goal contributions, but he is second on the team in shot-creating actions per 90 minutes (4.62) and first on the team in goal-creating actions per 90 minutes (1.20). That 1.20 is the highest in club history (fbref.com only has tracking back to 2018, so apologies to the legend Kaká) among players who played at least 500 minutes in a season, and it is nearly 50% higher than the player in second place in that stat, Mauricio Pereyra in 2020, when he averaged 0.82.
Might it be nice to be able to play a player who is creating a goal every 90 minutes? I think so. Joran Gerbet has played well, especially for a rookie, and specially especially (just go with it) for a rookie in the mentally and physically demanding role of a central midfielder. He has a ton of potential, but he is not yet as productive a player as Atuesta and when the Colombian playmaker returns the offense will get back a key cog that will help to create good shots, and in a game like soccer the difference between a goal and a miss is often a matter of inches, and a slightly better delivery on the pass can turn a shot into a shot on target and a shot on target into a goal.
Is it really as simple as just red cards and injuries, and that if Orlando City can keep its full complement of players on the field and get back some injured players, everything will go from not hot to hot again? Perhaps, but I think there is a style of play change that has also been causing some of the recent issues. I included rows on the charts above on the aggregation of completed crosses and switches (as in switches of the field) per game and medium and long passes completed per game, and from that chart you can see that the numbers are much lower in the last three games as compared to the beginning of this season and the final half of last season.
Those drops coincide with Rafael Santos playing only 59 minutes in the last three games, and with Alex Freeman not being able to get into the attack in the same way as he was in the season-opening games. There definitely is some overlap here with playing down a player and needing to keep defensive players back, but Santos’ offensive contributions (he is currently 20th in MLS in completed crosses + switches per 90 minutes), and even just the threat of him playing a long ball across the field to change the point of attack, have been missed by the Orlando City offense with him off the field. David Brekalo is an excellent defender, but his offensive contributions are more tied to his ability to win balls in the air, whereas Santos is among the league leaders in crosses and switches per 90 minutes, with Freeman one of his primary targets.
Brekalo playing left back certainly helped shore up a defense that had been leaking goals, and Santos was a major contributor to that with some poor defensive performances, but that tradeoff has removed a major threat to the Orlando City offense. Freeman’s reduction in offensive contributions has not helped, but I think the loss of Santos’ early crosses, long switches, and overlapping runs contributed more to the nearly 400-minute dry spell without a goal from open play. The Lions need him to find his form again, though he will not be able to do it against Atlanta, as he will be suspended.
Three games without a goal is unpleasant as a fan, but Orlando City battled in all three games and at least came away with a point. The defense is playing well, and despite many injuries, the Lions are still very much in the playoff hunt as the season approaches the one-third mark. There are legitimate reasons for the recent offensive swoon, and Araújo and Atuesta will likely be back shortly, and McGuire also may soon be able to start a game and offer a different offensive look. Ramiro Enrique heated up once spring turned to summer in 2024, and when all four of those players are back to full health, the team will once again have a deep roster full of players aggressively competing for minutes.
Óscar Pareja historically has used the first half of a season to find his preferred lineup for the stretch run of the season, and I believe this is another season when he will be playing the long game and seeing what he has at his disposal. The red cards and injuries provided short-term pain in terms of points dropped, but they will likely also provide long-term gain with the view into how the players play in different positions and combinations.
It is a long season, with two cup competitions still to start, in addition to 25 more regular-season games, and summer does not even start until June. I expect that a lot of the issues from the recent run of games will work themselves out with time. We just need to keep our cool and wait for the inevitable Orlando City late season hot streak.
Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers! We’re into the thick of the World Cup group stage, and so far it’s been undeniably entertaining. My only complaint is that I’m not independently wealthy and still have to work during the day rather than travel to and pay the stupid ticket prices to watch whichever matches I want. Oh well, until that happens let’s get to the links, but not before we wish Orlando Pride midfielder Summer Yates a happy birthday.
Griezmann Signing Graded
There were plenty of big signings this summer transfer window, including Orlando City securing the services of Antoine Griezmann. Unsurprisingly, the Lions earned top marks for bringing the Frenchman to the City Beautiful. You might not know all there is to know about Orlando City’s newest Designated Player and may want more information on him and why he isn’t with France at the World Cup. Obviously, he retired from international football. Fortunately, he didn’t retire from club football.
USMNT vs. Australia
The USMNT plays Australia in the second match of the group stage this Friday at 3 p.m. The U.S. is coming off a dominating win over Paraguay, but Australia managed a pretty good win over a tough Türkiye team. There has been a lot of talk by U.S. pundits before the tournament about Mike Grella’s remark that Australia would be a “layup,” and the Socceroos are using that as bulletin board material. It’s an intriguing matchup since Australia, like Paraguay, favors a low block and attacking on the counter. The U.S. effectively shut down Paraguay when it tried the same thing. Can the U.S. replicate its performance from the first match on Friday? That is why they play the game. If you’re looking for somewhere to watch the match in the Orlando area, here is your guide.
Even More USMNT News
It’s all too often that we get over-hyped after a win like the USMNT over Paraguay, but is that the case this time, or can the team make a deep run into the tournament? With Australia up next, U.S. supporters are concerned about the health of Christian Pulisic. According to Mauricio Pochettino, he’s all good. Meanwhile, Haji Wright remembers scoring a brace against the Aussies when the teams met in a friendly. Wright was an unused sub in the first World Cup match, but perhaps he’ll have a chance on Friday. Wright says that Türkiye came into the match too confident, but the U.S. knows how dangerous Australia is and won’t make that same mistake.
World Cup Results
The two early matches on Tuesday were enjoyable even if the results were a little more what we expected. Kylian Mbappé scored a brace in France’s 3-1 win over Senegal. Bradley Barcola scored France’s second goal and Ibrahim Mbaye scored Senegal’s lone goal. In the second match, Erling Haaland also scored a brace in Norway’s 4-1 victory over Iraq. Aymen Hussein scored Iraq’s only goal. Unfortunately for him, he also scored an own goal for Norway. It is nice that Mbappé and Haaland wanted to emulate Folarin Balogun. Thankfully, the Argentina versus Algeria match was late enough that I did not have to write about it or that Lionel Messi guy.
Free Kicks
- Tyler Adams just seems like a good dude, and it’s stuff like this that proves it. He is working with the U.S. Soccer Foundation to build mini pitches in areas of need across the country.
- England hasn’t played a match in the World Cup and the team has already had to replace Tino Livramento, who has been ruled out due to a calf injury. Chelsea defender Trevoh Chalobah is his replacement.
- Remember during the opening match between Mexico and and South Africa, when Fox aired commercials during the hydration break? Remember how they didn’t come back until play had already resumed? FIFA could have punished the network but has decided not to do so. Hopefully, it doesn’t happen again.
- The Chicago Stars signed Spain national team defender Leila Ouahabi to a three-year contract through the 2028 NWSL season.
- We know that Mauricio Pochettino won’t be heading to AC Milan, since the club appointed Ruben Amorim to the head coach post.
- Are Scotland supporters drinking all the beer in Boston? I’m betting that the Tartan Army is giving it a try.
- There’s nothing quite like getting called out by your middle school teacher as an adult.
That will do it for today. We’re only two days from the USMNT versus Australia, and I’m ready to run through a brick wall — metaphorically speaking. We also have OCB this weekend, so make time to watch the Young Lions. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 6/16/26
Alex Freeman’s impact, World Cup results roundup, Tunisia makes coaching change, and more.
Good morning, everyone! I write to you from Seattle, where I touched down last night ahead of attending the United States Men’s National Team’s second group game against Australia on Friday. I’ll spend the early part of this week getting out into some nature with my family, before returning to the city on Thursday to cheer on our boys against the Aussies. We’ve got lots to talk about today, so let’s get into the links!
Alex Freeman’s Impact
By now, I’m sure you know that the USMNT opened its time at the World Cup with a rousing 4-1 shellacking of Paraguay. What you might not know is the role that former Orlando City fullback Alex Freeman played in the victory. He continued his meteoric rise since debuting for OCSC’s senior side last season, as he went the full 90 minutes against Paraguay and racked up an assist, two interceptions, and five recoveries. He also pushed forward and took up positions in the half spaces that cause plenty of problems for the opponent’s defense and was mostly sharp with his positioning defensively. Here’s hoping he continues that sort of form!
World Cup Results Roundup
It was another engrossing day of World Cup action on Monday, and things got off to a very strong start. Debutants Cape Verde played Spain to a scoreless draw in Atlanta, as the 64th-ranked team in the world picked up its first World Cup point in its first-ever match. The second game of the day saw Egypt take a surprising lead over Belgium before the introduction of Romelu Lukaku off the bench forced an own goal that leveled the score and saw the game end 1-1. Uruguay and Saudi Arabia made it three draws in three games, as the underdogs once again took the lead before Uruguay fought back well in the second half. The final game of the day between Iran and New Zealand concluded after our editorial deadline.
Tunisia Fires Head Coach
It only took four days of games for this World Cup to get its first managerial change, as Tunisia fired head coach Sabri Lamouchi on Monday morning. Tunisia wrapped up Sunday’s action by being on the wrong end of a 5-1 hammering against Sweden to open tournament play on a less-than-ideal note. The loss meant Tunisia has won just one of its last eight games, and the team has given up five goals in two straight games after slumping to a 5-0 loss to Belgium in its final pre-tournament friendly. Mondher Kebaier will take over as interim head coach and has a lot to fix before Tunisia faces Japan in its second group game on Saturday.
Global Transfer Summary
Under cover of the World Cup, transfers are still flying thick and fast around the world. We begin with Real Madrid, which announced the signing of fullback Marc Cucurella from Chelsea on Monday morning. Elsewhere, former Lens manager Pierre Sage was named Oliver Glasner’s successor as the head coach of Crystal Palace. Moving into the realm of rumor, winger Ismael Saibari is reportedly close to joining Bayern Munich from PSV Eindhoven, with a medical the only thing left standing in the way from putting pen to paper. Finally, new Real Madrid manager Jose Mourinho is said to be keen on signing midfielder Felix Nmecha from Borussia Dortmund, but he will likely face stiff competition from Premier League sides and Dortmund itself.
Free Kicks
- Cape Verde’s goalkeeper was superb in the team’s draw against Spain and has seen his online popularity explode as a result.
- FIFA found no evidence of a racist gesture by video assistant referee Shaun Evans before Germany’s match against Curacao.
- There have been some entertaining moments both on and off the field at the tournament.
- Bukayo Saka says he’s ready for England’s opening match, despite fears over an Achilles tendon that bothered him off and on during the club season.
That’s all I’ve got for you today. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 6/15/26
OCB beats Huntsville City, OCB signs Parker Amoo-Mensah, USMNT defeats Paraguay in World Cup, and more.
Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you down in Florida. I’ve been keeping myself busy at work but tried to catch as many World Cup matches as possible. I did get to check out the Mumford & Sons and Rufus Du Sol concerts at Wrigley Field up here in Chicago. We’ve got plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.
OCB Defeats Huntsville City FC on the Road
Orlando City B completed the comeback, overturning a 1-0 deficit to beat Huntsville City FC 2-1 at Wicks Family Field Saturday. Huntsville struck first to take a 1-0 lead into halftime. In the second half, Matthew Belgodere buried the equalizer for the Young Lions. Jacob Ramirez scored the final goal of the match for OCB to seal the win on the road and extend its winning streak to four games. That result lifts the Young Lions to third in the MLS NEXT Pro Eastern Conference table with 28 points. OCB will return home to face Philadelphia Union II Sunday at Osceola County Stadium.
OCB Signs Parker Amoo-Mensah
Orlando City B has signed academy defender Parker Amoo-Mensah to an MLS NEXT Pro contract. The club announced the signing Friday with the deal running through the 2028 season. Amoo-Mensah has made 12 appearances for the Young Lions during the 2026 MLS NEXT Pro season, starting eight matches, and has one assist.
USMNT Defeats Paraguay in World Cup Opener
The U.S. Men’s National Team defeated Paraguay 4-1 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA, to win its opening match in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Former Lion Alex Freeman played a full 90 minutes and recorded an assist in the match, while Orlando City midfielder Braian Ojeda was on Paraguay’s bench but did not play. The USMNT’s opening goal was an own goal from Paraguay midfielder Damian Bobadilla to give the Yanks the lead in the first half. Falorin Balogun scored twice for the U.S to take a 3-0 lead into halftime. In the second half, Paraguay pulled one back, but Gio Reyna added the insurance goal. The USMNT will face Australia in its second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Lumen Field in Seattle on Friday.
2026 FIFA World Cup Recap
On Friday, Canada drew Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-1. Orlando City goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau started the match and had two clutch saves while former Lions Cyle Larin and Richie Laryea were also in action. Larin scored the equalizer for the Canadian Men’s National Team, securing a draw and earning its first-ever point in a World Cup match. On Saturday, Qatar and Switzerland played to a 1-1 draw, Brazil and Morocco settled for a 1-1 draw, Scotland secured its first World Cup win in 36 years with a 1-0 victory over Haiti, and Australia defeated Turkey 2-0. On Sunday, Kai Havertz scored twice for Germany in a 7-1 win over Curacao, Japan trailed twice and fought back for a 2-2 draw against the Netherlands, Amad Diallo scored a late winner for Ivory Coast in a 1-0 win over Ecuador, and Sweden and Tunisia kicked off late. Today’s matches will feature Spain facing Cape Verde, Belgium taking on Egypt, Saudi Arabia facing Uruguay, and Iran taking on New Zealand.
Free Kicks
- Charlotte FC is reportedly close to signing RC Lens winger Allan Saint-Maximin to a Designated Player contract.
- The Chicago Fire are reportedly pursuing Bayern Munich midfielder Leon Goretzka while holding talks with former FC Barcelona forward Robert Lewandowski.
- Real Madrid has reportedly reached an agreement with Chelsea to sign defender Marc Cucurella.
- Somali referee Omar Artan will receive full payment from FIFA after being denied entry to the United States for the 2026 World Cup due to visa issues.
- Two men have been charged in connection with the theft of England’s World Cup training equipment as the national team was moving its base camp from West Palm Beach to Kansas City, MO.
That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.
SkoPurp Soccer Episode 126: USWNT-Brazil Friendlies, Barbra Banda, and More
Lion Links: 6/17/26
PawedCast Episode 538: OCB-Huntsville Rewind, World Cup, USMNT, and More
-
Lion Links2 weeks agoLion Links: 6/3/26
-
Orlando City2 weeks agoAccording to Math, Orlando Among Top Soccering Cities in North America In 2026
-
Orlando Pride2 weeks agoAn Early Look at Orlando Pride’s Contract Decisions
-
Podcasts2 weeks agoSkoPurp Soccer Episode 125: Bay FC Rewind, USWNT Friendlies in Brazil, and More
-
Lion Links2 weeks agoLion Links: 6/5/26
-
Orlando City2 weeks agoOrlando City So Far in 2026: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
-
Orlando City1 week agoOrlando City Taking Risk with No Immediate Plan to Hire New Head Coach
-
Lion Links2 weeks agoLion Links: 6/4/26