Orlando City
Orlando City Was Hot, But Now Is Not — An Explanation
A comparison of the Lions’ start to the season vs. recent form.
Years ago, back during the early days of the new millennium, one of the first websites to ever “go viral” was the matchmaking site AmIHotOrNot.com. I, of course, never visited this site, as I had access to a mirror on the wall and already knew who was the fairest of them all (not me, the mirror was pretty clear about that). But as a college student during those years, I knew of the site and how it quickly was getting millions of views per day. Today’s topic is related to hot and not, but it is the significantly more important topic of Orlando City’s performance on the field during the 2025 season.
During the first six games of the season, the Lions looked better than any previous Orlando City team in the club’s MLS era in terms of early season offensive prowess. The squad led the league in goals scored, the Designated Players were scoring or contributing to nearly every goal, and with Duncan McGuire still to return to add even more firepower, it seemed like there might be the possibility of running out of purple smoke to shoot off in front of The Wall with how many goals Orlando City was scoring.
And then, with apologies to Prince, purple flames were doused by purple rain, and we found out what it sounds like when Lions fans cry. To understand why the offense went from 2.5 goals scored per game to being shut out in three straight matches for the first time since 2018 we need to first consider whether the start to the season was an aberration itself, and had our expectations misaligned for how this team would perform for the rest of the season. Let’s take a look at how the first six games of 2025 compared with the second half of the 2024 regular season (17 games):
| Metric | 2024 Final 17 | 2025 First 6 |
|---|---|---|
| Goals per Game | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Shots on Target per Game | 5.6 | 5.5 |
| Shots on Target % | 40% | 35% |
| Goal Conversions per Shot on Target | 44% | 45% |
| Medium + Long Passes Completed per Game | 215 | 208 |
| Medium + Long Pass Completion % | 81% | 80% |
| Completed Crosses + Switches per Game | 21.4 | 21.0 |
| Progressive Carries + Passes per Game | 64.6 | 57.3 |
| Points Earned per Game | 2.06 | 1.67 |
For the most part it looks like the beginning of the 2025 season picked right up where the 2024 regular season ended (I intentionally excluded the 2024 playoffs from the data because playoff games tend to be played differently than regular-season games). There were some major changes in personnel from 2024 to 2025, but even with the changes in players, the style of play and the formation used by Orlando City remained the same, and most of the offensive stats are nearly exactly the same. Six games is a decent enough sample size to say that those stats from 2025 were not a fluke, and the offensive output that we saw in the second half of the 2024 season could be reasonably expected to continue at a similar pace.
But then it did not. Oh boy has it not. Looking at the same chart, but comparing the 2025 first six games to the 2025 most recent three matches gets an immediate “not hot” vote and is as ugly as a Bubba Sparxxx song.
| Metric | 2025 First 6 | 2025 Last 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Goals per Game | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Shots on Target per Game | 5.5 | 3.0 |
| Shots on Target % | 35% | 31% |
| Goal Conversions per Shot on Target | 45% | 0% |
| Medium + Long Passes Completed per Game | 208 | 171 |
| Medium + Long Pass Completion % | 80% | 74% |
| Completed Crosses + Switches per Game | 21.0 | 12.6 |
| Progressive Carries + Passes per Game | 57.3 | 42.0 |
| Points Earned per Game | 1.67 | 1.0 |
The sharp-eyed observer will note that red cards are not noted anywhere above, and in those last three games Orlando City played nearly 50 minutes with only 10 players. In both of the games when a red card (the ultimate sum of two yellow cards by the same player) was given, Orlando City was ahead in expected goals at the moment the red card was issued, and while those do not count for anything officially, they indicate who was getting shots off from more dangerous locations. I thought Orlando City seemed more likely to score and take all three points in both games up until the dismissal of a player. Instead, of course, the Lions went down a player and immediately had to pivot to a more defensive posture, and with one fewer player on the field, they could not play (or at least maintain) the same style as they had been.
In addition to playing far more conservatively, in both games Orlando City substituted on a defender for a key attacking player within four minutes of the red card, removing Marco Pašalić in the game against New York and Luis Muriel in the game against Montréal. This was effectively a double negative, and not in the way that turns two negatives into a positive. It was more like f(x) = -2x, a function with a slope of -2 and…let me stop right there. It was bad, and hurt the offense to remove a key playmaker and goal scorer.
Another major issue is that the midfield engine of César Araújo and Eduard Atuesta have played a combined 11 minutes in the last three games, and all 11 of those minutes were played by Atuesta in the game against New York and after the red card. Araújo’s absence has definitely been felt, but as he is more of a deep-lying player and defensive destroyer, the team has been able to adequately replace him, but Atuesta’s offensive talents have been sorely missed. Atuesta may not have many goal contributions, but he is second on the team in shot-creating actions per 90 minutes (4.62) and first on the team in goal-creating actions per 90 minutes (1.20). That 1.20 is the highest in club history (fbref.com only has tracking back to 2018, so apologies to the legend Kaká) among players who played at least 500 minutes in a season, and it is nearly 50% higher than the player in second place in that stat, Mauricio Pereyra in 2020, when he averaged 0.82.
Might it be nice to be able to play a player who is creating a goal every 90 minutes? I think so. Joran Gerbet has played well, especially for a rookie, and specially especially (just go with it) for a rookie in the mentally and physically demanding role of a central midfielder. He has a ton of potential, but he is not yet as productive a player as Atuesta and when the Colombian playmaker returns the offense will get back a key cog that will help to create good shots, and in a game like soccer the difference between a goal and a miss is often a matter of inches, and a slightly better delivery on the pass can turn a shot into a shot on target and a shot on target into a goal.
Is it really as simple as just red cards and injuries, and that if Orlando City can keep its full complement of players on the field and get back some injured players, everything will go from not hot to hot again? Perhaps, but I think there is a style of play change that has also been causing some of the recent issues. I included rows on the charts above on the aggregation of completed crosses and switches (as in switches of the field) per game and medium and long passes completed per game, and from that chart you can see that the numbers are much lower in the last three games as compared to the beginning of this season and the final half of last season.
Those drops coincide with Rafael Santos playing only 59 minutes in the last three games, and with Alex Freeman not being able to get into the attack in the same way as he was in the season-opening games. There definitely is some overlap here with playing down a player and needing to keep defensive players back, but Santos’ offensive contributions (he is currently 20th in MLS in completed crosses + switches per 90 minutes), and even just the threat of him playing a long ball across the field to change the point of attack, have been missed by the Orlando City offense with him off the field. David Brekalo is an excellent defender, but his offensive contributions are more tied to his ability to win balls in the air, whereas Santos is among the league leaders in crosses and switches per 90 minutes, with Freeman one of his primary targets.
Brekalo playing left back certainly helped shore up a defense that had been leaking goals, and Santos was a major contributor to that with some poor defensive performances, but that tradeoff has removed a major threat to the Orlando City offense. Freeman’s reduction in offensive contributions has not helped, but I think the loss of Santos’ early crosses, long switches, and overlapping runs contributed more to the nearly 400-minute dry spell without a goal from open play. The Lions need him to find his form again, though he will not be able to do it against Atlanta, as he will be suspended.
Three games without a goal is unpleasant as a fan, but Orlando City battled in all three games and at least came away with a point. The defense is playing well, and despite many injuries, the Lions are still very much in the playoff hunt as the season approaches the one-third mark. There are legitimate reasons for the recent offensive swoon, and Araújo and Atuesta will likely be back shortly, and McGuire also may soon be able to start a game and offer a different offensive look. Ramiro Enrique heated up once spring turned to summer in 2024, and when all four of those players are back to full health, the team will once again have a deep roster full of players aggressively competing for minutes.
Óscar Pareja historically has used the first half of a season to find his preferred lineup for the stretch run of the season, and I believe this is another season when he will be playing the long game and seeing what he has at his disposal. The red cards and injuries provided short-term pain in terms of points dropped, but they will likely also provide long-term gain with the view into how the players play in different positions and combinations.
It is a long season, with two cup competitions still to start, in addition to 25 more regular-season games, and summer does not even start until June. I expect that a lot of the issues from the recent run of games will work themselves out with time. We just need to keep our cool and wait for the inevitable Orlando City late season hot streak.
Lion Links
Lion Links: 1/14/26
The Orlando Pride hire a new GM, Luis Muriel departure rumors heat up, USMNT news, and more.
Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. It has felt like the off-season has been in slow motion despite several signings. Recent developments make it feel like things are going to start speeding up. So keep your head up as the preseason is underway, and the season is just around the corner. For now, let’s get to the links.
Orlando Pride Name Caitlin Carducci VP & GM
The Orlando Pride hired Caitlin Carducci as the club’s new vice president of soccer operations and general manager. Carducci was most recently the general manager for the Kansas City Current. Like the recently departed Haley Carter, Carducci is proven commodity, having built trophy-winning teams. She has an impressive resume, having worked at multiple levels of soccer including with U.S. Soccer, the NWSL, and as an attorney and former compliance officer. This is a move that proves the commitment of the Wilf family regarding the Orlando Pride.
Muriel Exit Rumors Heat Up
It’s one of those things where everyone knows something is coming, but we still have to wait for it to actually happen (see Carlos Coronel). It’s a known secret that Orlando City and Luis Muriel want to mutually move on from each other, and now it looks like it might be happening. Of course, we don’t have anything confirmed by the club yet, but when Tom Bogert posts something like this, it’s usually a good indication.
USMNT News
Josh Sargent has been doing very well with Norwich City scoring 13, 16, and 15 goals for the Canaries in the last few seasons. Now, he may be on his way to MLS as Toronto FC is trying to bring him to North America for an $18 million fee. In other news, Timothy Weah spoke out about the costs of World Cup tickets being too high. It’s not exactly a hot take, but good on him for addressing the issue.
NWSL Notes
Now that the Orlando Pride have a new general manager, we eagerly await the new player signings. Until then, let’s check out other NWSL happenings. Seattle Reign FC signed head coach Laura Harvey to a new contract through the 2028 season. Angel City decided that having Emily Sams wasn’t enough, so the club signed rookie forward Riley Tiernan to a contract extension through the 2028 season. The disturbing trend of Brazilian players signing with clubs other than Orlando City continued, as Ludmila was traded by Chicago to the San Diego Wave for $800,000 in transfer fee funds and up to an additional $200,000 in conditional transfer fee. She signed a three-year contract with the club.
Free Kicks
- I think we may get the 2026 NWSL season schedule on Thursday, but I’m just speculating.
- Manchester United has signed former player Michael Carrick as interim head coach until the end of the season.
- FC Cincinnati signed forward Kristian Fletcher through the 2026 season with options through the 2027-2028 MLS season.
- If you’re feeling bad about what Orlando City is or is not doing this off-season, at least the Lions haven’t messed up like this:
- It’s called the City Beautiful for a reason.
- Orlando City had a special guest at training, as Brazilian legend Zico stopped by to visit.
That will do it for today. Check back with The Mane Land as there’s going to be plenty of news as the new seasons for Orlando City and the Orlando Pride get closer. Vamos Orlando!
Opinion
An Orlando City 2026 Preseason Wishlist
Here are three things that I’m hoping to see during Orlando City’s preseason preparations.
The preseason has begun, and we know about Orlando City’s four tuneup matches during the 2026 training camp. The season opener is just over six weeks away on Feb. 21. This seems like a good time to discuss a few things that I’m hoping for from this edition of the Lions’ preseason.
A Clean Bill of Health
I would trade every other item on this list if it means getting through the preseason without any injury setbacks like the one the Lions experienced last year. When Wilder Cartagena tore his left Achilles tendon against Atletico Mineiro on Jan. 25, it broke up the previously established and successful duo of himself and Cesar Araujo and had a big impact on the start of the season. Of course, OCSC pivoted magnificently as Eduard Atuesta was signed just a little over two weeks later on Feb. 10, but the timing of Cartagena’s injury and Atuesta’s subsequent arrival meant that he was playing catch-up when it came to integrating with his new teammates. The Colombian still put together a solid season with seven assists (good for third-best on the team), but not having Cartagena in 2025 was a blow, particularly when considering his versatility in being able to play at midfield or center back. If the Lions can get to opening day this year with no repeats of that incident or Yutaro Tuskada’s 2025 season-ending knee injury, then I’ll be a very happy man.
Timely Reinforcements
It’s been pretty well established that more additions need to be made to the roster before it’s ready for opening day. Luis Muriel is likely about to be moved and at least one striker will be needed to replace him, while convincing arguments can be made for signing a left back, a couple of center backs, and a right back. Not only would I love those signings to be made, but there’s also a lot to be said for any new arrivals to join up with the team sooner rather than later. Some of that is out of the Lions’ hands, particularly in the case of using the Designated Player spot if/when Muriel exits, but the more time any new faces have to begin integrating with their new teammates, the better. Of course, there’s also something to be said for Orlando doing its homework and ensuring that it makes the correct call when pulling the trigger on a new signing, but with how tough the Eastern Conference was last year, a fine balance is going to need to be struck between patience and urgency to ensure OCSC isn’t playing catchup in the standings.
Continued Chances for Young Players
It’s no secret that a big storyline for Orlando City during 2025 was the eye-wateringly fast rise of Alex Freeman. He’s a shining example of what MLS teams want to get out of their academies — rising up through the youth systems, starring for the reserve side, earning a spot on the first team, and going even farther beyond that. The big question now is whether or not other young players can follow in his footsteps. It would be unreasonable to expect other Young Lions to hit the heights that Freeman did in 2025, but there’s no reason that guys like Gustavo Caraballo, Tahir Reid-Brown, and Colin Guske can’t earn some more minutes after making their debuts last season. Likewise, as Sean Rollins noted several days ago, there are some current Orlando City B players who could realistically make their senior debuts this year. That process begins during the preseason, when the coaching staff is trying to get a good sense of what it has to work with, and if any of the youngsters show well, then Oscar Pareja and his staff have shown themselves to be more than willing to hand them opportunities. Hopefully, some of the more promising young faces get plenty of chances to prove themselves.
There you have it. If Orlando City can keep everyone healthy, get new signings in the door sooner rather than later, and hand promising youngsters the chance to show what they can do, then I’ll be a happy man during this preseason. Keep your fingers crossed, people. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 1/13/26
Orlando City opens preseason training, Orlando City B signs a striker, MLS transfer news, and more.
Good morning, everyone! As strange (and soon) as it seems, we’ve now got day one of Orlando City’s preseason in the rearview mirror. The season opener will be here before we know it, but for now we’ve got a lot of things to talk through today. Let’s wish a happy birthday to OCSC goalkeeping coach Cesar Baena, and get started on today’s links!
Orlando City Begins Preseason Training
Things looked a little different than they did the last few years when Orlando City opened preseason training on Monday. The new faces include Maxime Crepeau, Braian Ojeda, and Tiago, but the team is more than ready to get to work despite the off-season changes. Oscar Pareja says the club has high expectations for the year and took a moment to acknowledge all the people at the club who helped make the Lions into a playoff staple over the last six seasons, saying, “We’re ready to keep pushing with this journey, and it looks different, for sure, because we have had those players who have been here for many years and have brought a long, big, big history here. So again, our respect to them, and we promise that we will keep pushing together, because the most important thing is the team.” Of the new signings, Luis Otavio was the only one not present at Monday’s training, while several Orlando City B players were training with the first team, with Justin Ellis, Titus Sandy Jr., and Juan Rojas among them.
OCB Adds Brazilian Striker
Not to be outshone by the senior side, Orlando City B got the week started on a strong note by announcing the signing of striker Pedro Leao from Flamengo’s U-20 team. Leao came up through Flamengo’s academy before making his debut for the U-20 team in August of 2024. He then proceeded to score 20 goals and provide six assists in over 3,000 minutes for the U-20 side, and helped it win the 2024-2025 iteration of the U-20 Intercontinental Cup. The striker was also called up three times to represent Brazil’s U-16 side, logging three assists across those friendly matches. Welcome to Orlando!
MLS Transfer Moves
With the beginning of the Major League Soccer season creeping closer and closer, teams are completing transfer business in every direction you look. We start with FC Cincinnati, which has signed free agent forward Tom Barlow on a contract that runs through the end of 2027. Continuing the theme of free agent signings, the New York Red Bulls have signed defender Robert Voloder, with the former Sporting Kansas City player joining on a deal that runs through the end of 2028. The Houston Dynamo signed midfielder Agustin Bouzat from Velez Sarsfield on a deal that runs through June 2028 and has an option through June 2029. Up north, 38-year-old Maxi Moralez is back yet again for New York City FC, as he has signed a new contract that runs through the 2026 season. Finally, the San Jose Earthquakes are said to be closing in on a deal to sign Timo Werner as a Designated Player.
Americans in Midweek Action
As usual, a number of American players will be in action during the working week, so let’s take a look at some of the matchups. Things get going today when Malik Tillman and Bayer Leverkusen travel to Hamburger SV in Bundesliga action. Gio Reyna, Joe Scally, and Borussia Monchengladbach hit the road to take on Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga on Wednesday, while Kevin Paredes and Wolfsburg host James Sands’ St. Pauli side in the same competition. Thursday has Christian Pulisic and AC Milan in a road tilt against Como in Serie A play, and the week finishes up Friday with Folarin Balogun and Monaco squaring off against Lorient in Ligue 1.
Free Kicks
- Check out some of the scenes from the first day of preseason training.
- Minnesota United has promoted Cameron Knowles to be its new head coach.
- United States Women’s National Team captain Lindsey Heaps has signed with Denver Summit FC.
- Utah Royals FC has traded the Washington Spirit $180,000 in Allocation Money for midfielder Narumi Miura.
- Xabi Alonso is no longer the coach of Real Madrid, with Alvaro Arbeloa announced as his successor.
- Paris FC eliminated Paris Saint-Germain from the Coupe de France.
That’s all I’ve got for today. Vamos Orlando!
SkoPurp Soccer Episode 112: Emily Sams Traded, Pride Name Caitlin Carducci VP and GM, and More
Lion Links: 1/14/26
An Orlando City 2026 Preseason Wishlist
-
Orlando City1 week agoOrlando City Signs Canadian International Goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau
-
Lion Links1 week agoLion Links: 1/5/26
-
Lion Links2 weeks agoLion Links: 12/31/25
-
Lion Links1 week agoLion Links: 1/7/26
-
Lion Links2 weeks agoLion Links: 1/1/26
-
Lion Links1 week agoLion Links: 1/6/26
-
Orlando City2 weeks agoA 2026 Wish List for Orlando City and the Orlando Pride
-
Orlando City2 weeks agoOrlando City Acquires Paraguayan International Midfielder Braian Ojeda from Real Salt Lake