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Orlando City vs. Nashville SC: Final Score 1-0 as Lions Add Another Road Win on Duncan McGuire’s Goal

The Lions dug in and rarely tried to score, but managed to do so with their only shot on goal to defeat Nashville away.

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1 year ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City out-Nashville’d Nashville SC at Geodis Park in Nashville, TN, grinding out an ugly 1-0 win on the road in a match that featured very few shots or clear-cut scoring chances. Rookie Duncan McGuire scored late in the first half and the Lions (16-7-9, 57 points) controlled the pitch in the second period to see out the game without Nashville (12-10-9, 45 points) creating much in the way of chances to equalize.

It was Orlando City’s first away win at Nashville (1-0-3) and continued the Lions’ trend of beating good Eastern Conference teams on the road since their return from Leagues Cup.

“We’re very happy with the result,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said after the match. “The whole squad was very committed today with the result. The variations that we tried and we did during the game…they responded to us. That’s a great effort for the team that is getting mature and knows where we are, and playing against a very difficult team as well. It’s difficult always against Nashville. They have this characteristic that creates a lot of chaos and those transitions.”

Pareja’s lineup featured a couple of lineup changes. Pedro Gallese started in goal behind a back line of Rafael Santos, Robin Jansson, Rodrigo Schlegel, and Kyle Smith. Cesar Araujo and Wilder Cartagena took their customary spots in central midfield behind an attacking line of Martin Ojeda, Mauricio Pereyra, and Facundo Torres, with McGuire up top.

The first half mainly belonged to Nashville until the closing minutes. Nashville looked organized and nearly impossible to break down. The Lions struggled to know when to press or to press as a team when they tried. Nashville fashioned some early chances on the break and always seemed to be the more threatening side.

Nashville got the game’s first good look just five minutes in. Santos turned the ball over in the attacking left corner and with two passes Fafa Picault had the ball at the top of the box. He cut inside but fired his shot just wide of the left post.

Four minutes later, Picault headed over the bar on another transition opportunity as McGuire fell asleep waiting for a pass, which allowed Walker Zimmerman to cut in front of him and steal it to start the break.

“The first — I would say — 15 minutes we wanted to create a different sequence, because we wanted to use different spaces. But we felt uncomfortable,” Pareja said.

In the 23rd minute, Cartagena blocked a shot by Hany Mukhtar from outside the box. A minute later, Randall Leal had a go from well outside the box but hit it high above the crossbar.

The hosts picked up a few unnecessary yellow cards in the middle of the half. Brian Anunga caught Cartagena from behind to earn the first. Mukhtar picked up the second for angrily kicking the ball away after being called for offside. The third went to Sam Surridge, who stepped on Jansson’s foot long after he’d released a pass. It wasn’t intentional, as the forward was watching the ball and not his opponent, but Jansson was down for a couple of minutes in obvious pain. Thereafter, the home fans booed Jansson every time he touched the ball for his sheer audacity to get stepped on.

The Lions finally attempted a shot in the 44th minute and they made the most of it. Pereyra sent Ojeda down the left and the Designated Player sent in a good ball to McGuire. The rookie flicked it off the left post and in past Joe Willis to make it 1-0 with his 10th goal of the MLS season. The play looked offside from the sideline camera angle and it was extremely close, but the flag stayed down and the video assistant referee did not see enough on the replay to overturn it, ruling that the pass from Ojeda was even with McGuire, and the Lions led 1-0.

Neither team got a good look in the four minutes of stoppage time and Orlando took its slim lead into the locker room. It was a strange halftime score considering the flow of the first half.

At the break, Nashville held a 6-1 advantage in shots. However, Orlando City held more of the possession (56.6%-43.4%), passed more accurately (87.2%-81.3%), and put more shots on target (1-0). Neither team won a corner kick.

Nashville came out of the locker room with more energy, quickly getting forward and earning a free kick on the right and a yellow card on Cartagena, who was trying to cover for Santos, who had fallen on an earlier challenge. Ojeda blocked Daniel Lovitz’s attempt on the set piece, setting up the game’s first corner, but Nashville couldn’t make it pay off.

Moments later, Ojeda was dispossessed and thought he was fouled, but no call was made and the hosts quickly countered. Picault’s cross through the six was cleared over the bar by a sliding Schlegel on a vital intervention.

Orlando then fashioned some opportunities — if not outright chances. Torres turned down an opportunity to shoot from near the top of the box, then worked his way to the end line on the left and crossed the ball into the outside netting. In the 58th minute, Jansson got forward, laide off a pass and continued his run. The ball came back to him but McGuire couldn’t get onto his low cross in the box and there were no Lions on the far side of the box to get onto it.

Nashville manager Gary Smith tried some substitutions and shape changes but nothing much helped the hosts, who were turned away time and again by Orlando City’s defense. The Lions managed to defend well as a team without dropping deep and setting up their block too low, as they’ve sometimes done in the past. Mukhtar wasn’t able to create much, despite dropping deeper to get onto the ball.

Pareja also substituted liberally, sending on Ivan Angulo and Ramiro Enrique in the 65th minute for Pereyra and McGuire, Junior Urso for Torres in the 72nd minute, and — changing the shape to five at the back — Antonio Carlos and Dagur Dan Thorhallsson for Ojeda and Smith in the 85th.

Schlegel blocked a Mukhtar header in the 67th minute on what was probably Nashville’s best chance of the second half. Schlegel again blocked a Mukhtar shot in the 85th minute amidst the Lions winning free kicks and getting to loose balls first all over the pitch.

“The defense action from Rodri there in the second half was very important, because otherwise the Nashville guy in behind me will just put the ball in the goal. So he did very well there,” Jansson said.

Urso sent an ambitious attempt toward goal from extreme range in the 87th minute, hoping to catch Willis off his line. He didn’t, and the shot was well off target anyway, but it did count as the Lions’ second shot attempt of the match.

That turned out to be the final attempt for either time, despite a generous serving of 11 minutes of injury time added on, which ended up spilling over into a 12th. The Lions won a ton of throw-ins and the five-man back line held Nashville without any late attempts. Gallese held on for his 10th clean sheet of the season — a career high since joining MLS — without having to make a save.

Lovitz got sent off with a second yellow card deep in stoppage time and that was the game.

Orlando City held its exact same possession advantage from halftime at the final whistle (56.6%-43.4%). The Lions also passed more accurately (84.5%-79.5%) and finished with more shots on goal (1-0). Nashville held the advantage in total shot attempts (8-2) and corners (4-0).

The Lions ended up doing more damage in the second half by simply keeping the ball and playing safely than trying to score a second goal.

“The second half I thought we controlled,” Pareja said. “We asked the players to control and just let it come and see if we can use those spaces in behind when they come. Very well executed by the players and I saw this group very mature today.”

“Three nice points,” Jansson said. “I think our shape of the team was very good. We had Wilder and Cesar in front of us dictating the middle and always were aware of the Mukhtar guy was on the field — something we talked about before the game because we know he’s good, and you have to respect that, be aware of that. In the end, I think we were solid back there and the wingers and the striker were doing a huge job to contribute to that too, so that’s a team effort right there.”

The Lions have another quick turnaround, returning home Saturday to host the New England Revolution.

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Orlando City

How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively

How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.

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5 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

The purpose of this image is a table to show how Atlanta United lined up in 2024 (mostly in a 4-2-3-1 but also in one of six other formations).

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Table embedded as an image showing Orlando City doing best in goal differential in 12 games against three-man back lines, second best against four-man back lines, and having played once against a five-man back line (a 1-1 draw).

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy four defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus eight goal differential for the season.

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy three defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus three goal differential for the season.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?

Published

7 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?

Beat Guzan

Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.

Cartagena is Essential

Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.

Overcome the Past

That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.

That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links: 11/21/24

Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.

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10 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship

There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.

Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year

NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.

Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year

Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.

2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled

The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach

FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.

Free Kicks

  • District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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