After another agonizing loss at home a week ago to FC Cincinnati, Orlando City finds itself near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings almost a third of the way through the regular season. For an organization that entered the 2024 Major League Soccer season with lofty expectations, the beginning of the season has fallen significantly short of preseason projections.

For the most part, the facts that supported those preseason projections still mainly hold true. Orlando brought back its core offensive and defensive pieces, made some specific and pointed acquisitions in an attempt to upgrade, and was still managed by a coach who had enjoyed unparalleled success at the helm for the club.

So with all those things holding true, the head scratching question at this point in the season is what has gone wrong? During the first five to six weeks of the season, Orlando had to balance the regular season and Concacaf Champions Cup. Those days are now long past and that excuse for poor on-field performances no longer holds water.

In years past, Orlando has demonstrated its ability to grow into the season and last year’s record-setting team didn’t find its form until after the Leagues Cup competition. Nonetheless, Orlando City fans have not seen a team stumble out of the gate this badly in recent years. It’s time to reset the expectations for the 2024 MLS season and look to see what the team would have to do to turn the season on its head.

In 2023, Orlando City put up a club-record 63 points by season’s end, but if we break down the numbers of the early season, we can see that it might not be time to press the panic button just yet. Through the first 10 matches of 2023, Orlando put up 14 points on a 4-4-2 record with a goal differential of zero. Orlando City currently sits on nine points through its first 10 matches with a 2-5-3 record and a -7 goal differential. On the surface, those numbers seem to be a stark contrast to one another, but when you take into account a five-goal drubbing at Inter Miami, the goal differential that the team is supporting this year is mainly dragged down by one forgettable outing.

Add in a short-handed loss in Atlanta earlier in March, when the team was banged up and missing Wilder Cartagena due to suspension, as well as a heartbreaking last-ditch collapse against Toronto FC two weeks ago, and the picture starts to look less bleak than just what the numbers would suggest. Still, good teams find ways to not drop points at home and to manage matches where there are pieces of the machine missing.

With 24 matches still on the schedule, there is time to climb the table, but with every dropped point or bad loss the clock ticks closer to midnight and the margin for error becomes smaller.

In 2023, Charlotte FC snuck into the playoff wild card position with 43 points on the season, and only 10 wins. It doesn’t seem wildly out of the imagination that Orlando could reach that level this year. Extrapolating the data going back to 2021, with the current MLS playoff qualifications, a team would need an average of 44 points to make the postseason. That equates to Orlando needing 35 points over its final 24 matches — or 1.45 points per match — to reach the wild card round.

A somewhat more lofty goal would be qualifying for the playoffs without the wild card. Again, going back to average the seventh-place spot in the East over the last three years, Orlando would need to reach 48 points this season to avoid a play-in game. That equates to 39 points over the final 24 matches, or 1.62 points per match. In 2023, Orlando managed 49 points over its final 24 matches of the year — that’s 2.04 points per match.

I am not projecting Orlando to go on that same massive (MLS best) type of run over the summer and fall portions of the season, but I do believe that when it comes to expectations on the season there is still hope to be had for Orlando qualifying for the playoffs. The more likely scenario would be for Orlando to end up in the wild card matchup, but with a few extra matches breaking Orlando’s way, it is not a stretch yet to consider the club could climb slightly higher. There is also still the Leagues Cup on the horizon, and regardless of one’s opinion on the competition, a deep, competitive run in that competition could give meaning to the Lions’ 10th anniversary season.

We can likely put to bed the hopes of competing for the Shield or the top spot in the East at this point in the season, given the number of teams above the Lions and the number of matches remaining. However, it is still far too early to give up on the season as a whole. Orlando was five minutes away from going undefeated in the month of April, and there are still meaningful and winnable games on the calendar ahead. My recalibrated expectation of the season is for Orlando to earn a wild card spot, and anything above that would be gravy as far as I am concerned.

What reset expectations do you have for the year? Let us know in the comments below and as always, Vamos Orlando!

Orlando City is set to continue a difficult May schedule Saturday, and will try to avoid a three-game losing streak in the process. This week sees the Lions travel north to face the Philadelphia Union, which will be the first of three taking place in a span of eight days, with two of those on the road, forcing Orlando to shuttle back and forth across the country.

A date with the Union means I caught up with Joe Lister of the always excellent Philadelphia Soccer Now. As usual, Joe was very helpful in getting us caught up on what’s been happening with the Union, and I also answered some of his questions about OCSC, which you can find over at their place.

Run me through Philadelphia’s off-season transfer business. Are there any new names who have stood out?

Joe Lister: Philadelphia’s transfer business is nearly nonexistent. They sold a few guys, but didn’t really bring anyone notable in. The group that will be available against Orlando on Saturday is the same group that’s been around with the team for (generally) two or three years.

Quinn Sullivan, however, has been a relevation this season. His brother, Cavan, has obviously been in the news as of late. However, Quinn, 20, has been great for Philly. He’s got great pace down the side of the pitch and has a motor that doesn’t seem to quit. If he can perfect his final touch, he’ll make the Union a good bit of money.

It’s still quite early in the season, but its strange to see the Union not occupying their typical spot near the top of the East. Is there any concern among the fanbase, or are people largely happy with what they’ve seen so far?

JL: People are upset. This team, by Philly fans’ standards, sucks. The Eastern Conference is obviously super tough this year (Miami and RBNY are worth shoutouts), but Philadelphia just isn’t performing. They nearly lost three games in a row for the first time since 2017 with their draw against D.C. United. They were saved by a blast from Jack McGlynn that they didn’t necessarily deserve.

The Union are underwhelming. The front office has operated under the impression that the teams from 2020, 2021, and 2022 can still compete in MLS. The issue is that while the league has gotten better, the Union have just gotten worse.

The Union’s only two losses of the season have come at home. Is that simply down to playing two good teams in Real Salt Lake and the Seattle Sounders, or is there something else at play there?

JL: That’s just the team being in a funk. Again, this team is underperforming by Philadelphia’s standards. Losing at home is a true showcase of how far this team has fallen. I think the Union will be fine longterm — this is a playoff team, but nothing more than that.

Will any players be unavailable due to injury, suspension, etc.? What is your projected starting lineup and score prediction?

JL: Defender Olivier Mbaizo and goalkeeper Andre Blake were both out for last match with injuries. Blake’s been in-and-out all season, but I think the team has started to realize that backup Oliver Semmle is good enough that the three-time Goalkeeper of the Year doesn’t need to always be on the pitch. Julian Carranza is also suspended due to yellow card accumulation.

Lineup (4-4-2 diamond): Oliver Semmle; Kai Wagner, Jack Elliott, Jakob Glesnes, Nathan Harriel; Jose Martinez; Leon Flach, Alejandro Bedoya; Daniel Gazdag; Quinn Sullivan, Mikael Uhre.

I think this is a 2-2 draw. Based on where the Union are at right now, Orlando will get two first-half goals, the Union will pull back in the second half. Feels like a game where Daniel Gazdag should find the net at some point.

Thank you to Joe for the inside info on the Union. Vamos Orlando!

Happy Friday! I don’t have many plans for the weekend beyond working and looking after my friend’s cat, but I’m hoping it’s a fairly relaxing next few days. Both Orlando City and the Orlando Pride are in action tomorrow night, so make sure to plan your weekend accordingly. For now, let’s get to today’s links!

Orlando City Prepares for the Philadelphia Union

After a tough loss at home to FC Cincinnati, Orlando City hits the road for a tough match against the Philadelphia Union tomorrow night. The Lions showed plenty of fight in that loss, which included a red card to Rodrigo Schlegel and injuries to both Dagur Dan Thorhallsson and Rafael Santos. Head Coach Oscar Pareja spoke about the matchup against the Union and stated that Thorhallsson is in concussion protocol and that both he and Santos are day-to-day heading into this match.

The Lions at least won’t have to worry about Philadelphia forward Julian Carranza in this match, as he will miss it due to yellow card accumulation. Both teams have struggled in recent weeks, with the Lions winless in their last three games and the Union winless in their last four. Orlando managed to beat the Union on the road last year and will need to do it again to climb up the Eastern Conference standings.

Angelina Will Be Evaluated Weekly for Return

Orlando Pride midfielder Angelina had a successful arthroscopic procedure on her knee and will be evaluated by the club’s medical team for a return to the field on a week-to-week basis. She suffered the injury late in the Pride’s 4-1 win over the North Carolina Courage, and rookie Ally Lemos filled in for her in the team’s 1-0 win against Racing Louisville. Angelina signed with the Pride this past off-season and has been a major reason why the Pride are undefeated in 2024. The Brazilian has done well on both sides of the ball and has a goal and an assist to her name so far, while bringing stability to the midfield. Hopefully, she returns to the Pride’s midfield sooner rather than later.

Philadelphia Union Sign 14-Year-Old Cavan Sullivan

The Philadelphia Union have a penchant for developing young players and have now signed 14-year-old midfielder Cavan Sullivan to a Homegrown Player contract that will last through 2028. Sullivan, who is the brother of Quinn Sullivan, is now the fifth-youngest signing in MLS history. He excelled in the past two Generation Adidas Cups with the Union and made his debut for Philadelphia Union II earlier this year. When he turns 18, he will reportedly be transferred to Manchester City as well, so it will be interesting to see how he does in MLS until then.

Leverkusen and Atalanta Reach Europa League Final

Bayer Leverkusen and Atalanta both got the job done in second legs at home to advance to the Europa League final. The match in Germany between Leverkusen and Roma was a wild one, with Leverkusen managing yet another late comeback to draw 2-2 and advance on aggregate after winning the first leg. The draw extended Leverkusen’s unbeaten streak to 49 games and it can secure a treble by the end of the month. In the other semifinal, Atalanta cruised to a 3-0 win over Marseille. The Italian club will have a chance at silverware in the Coppa Italia final against Juventus on May 15 before the Europa League final on May 22 in Ireland.

Free Kicks

• Enjoy these sights and sounds from the Pride’s gritty win over Racing Louisville.

• Olivier Renard is no longer the vice president and chief sporting officer of CF Montreal, with the two sides agreeing to part ways.
• PSV Eindhoven reportedly won’t be exercising the option to sign American right back Sergino Dest, who joined the Dutch club on loan from Barcelona last year.

• Legal action could be coming FIFA’s way if it continues adding competitions to an already congested schedule for men’s soccer.
• James Benge of CBS Sports believes that this year’s Borussia Dortmund side is the most surprising team to make the Champions League final.

That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!