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What If Cyle Larin Had Stayed in Orlando for 2018?
Note: It’s “What If?” Week at SBNation. The purpose of this platform-wide theme is to explore some of the fun/cool/interesting things that could have happened for our teams. After seeing how Cyle Larin and Dom Dwyer worked together up top at the end of 2017, I thought this would be a good discussion topic.
We all remember the acrimonious split between the Lions and striker Cyle Larin at the start of the 2018 season and there is sufficient blame to lay on all parties for that happening. Larin was under contract after having his option picked up by Orlando City, so he shouldn’t have gone to Turkey to join Besiktas without a transfer deal in place. His agent no doubt played a large role in that happening. And the Lions could have made life so much easier for Larin by giving him the raise he deserved from three seasons of scoring double-digit goals.
Larin made no secret about his desire to play in Europe for a Champions League team. He was never staying in Orlando forever and it’s hard to blame a kid for following his dreams. The Lions never made staying more attractive by ripping up his rookie deal and paying him on a level that his production warranted. Regardless of who is most to blame, all parties share some responsibility.
But what if he had stayed in Orlando for 2018?
One of the highlights of 2017 was the partnership that Larin and newly (re)acquired Dom Dwyer formed at the end of the season. Dwyer came to Orlando from Sporting Kansas City in the summer window and produced three goals and four assists after a slow start in purple. The Larin-Dwyer partnership played together nine times in 2017 and from those games, the duo accounted for seven goals and six assists. Most of that happened from late August onward, as it took Dwyer a few games to acclimate to his new teammates.
In the nine matches they played together in 2017, the Canadian was involved in 0.67 goals per appearance, while Dwyer was part of 0.78 goals per game. Dwyer contributed to just 0.5 goals per appearance in 2018 without Larin, scoring 13 times but failing to contribute a single assist. The Lions’ second-leading scorer that season was Sacha Kljestan, who scored just six goals and added six assists.
Even if you count the games where Dwyer hadn’t yet quite settled in yet in 2017, if you project the Larin-Dwyer numbers from their first nine games together into the 2018 season, it looks something like this (games played figured by averaging appearances per season in Orlando):
- Larin: 29 games played, 13 goals, six assists.
- Dwyer: 26 games played, nine goals, 12 assists.
A couple of things jump out immediately. First, these projections would demolish Dwyer’s career single-season assist mark. Dwyer’s best season for assists over his MLS career came in 2017, when he had five — four of those after joining Orlando City. Larin too would have set a career high for assists, doubling his previous best. He notched three in both 2017 and 2016.
The 13 goals would be pretty well in line with Larin’s three-year career in Orlando, where he scored 17 in 2015, 14 in 2016, and 12 in 2017. Dwyer’s would be a slight dip, but his assist mark would have risen high enough to make up for that. Being part of 21 goals is an effective season for an MLS forward.
Although scoring more goals is good, 2018 was still the year the club set a league record by conceding 74 times, so it’s unlikely Larin’s presence would have elevated the Lions into a playoff spot. The team would have had to accumulate 22 additional points.
However, Orlando tied Columbus for the fewest goals scored in the Eastern Conference, with 43. Larin’s continued presence in purple that year — assuming his partnership with Dwyer maintained its success rate (it could also have improved over time as the two players grew more familiar with each other) — Orlando would easily have scored more than 50 goals on the season and likely somewhere in the range of 55 to 60. It’s difficult to project which goals would not have been scored had Larin been on the pitch rather than someone else, but this is probably in the ballpark.
The variable that’s difficult to track is when those goals would have been scored. Had they given the Lions the lead, that could have cut their goals against, because tactically they’d have been chasing fewer games and protecting more leads. It’s possible the team could have shaved 10 goals against (or more) off the total.
It’s safe to say Orlando would not have finished in the Eastern Conference basement in 2018 had Larin stayed, but unlikely the team could have climbed over Chicago, Toronto, New England, Montreal, and Philadelphia. The likely scenario is that Orlando would have remained in the chase until late in the season and finished somewhere around 40 to 43 points, which would have been eighth or ninth spot rather than 11th. The best-case scenario would probably be somewhere around 47 or 48 points, which would have still missed the playoffs by just a few points with a seventh-place finish.
So, while Larin couldn’t have saved Orlando’s season had he returned in 2018, the Lions could have been much more respectable and competitive, most likely wouldn’t have conceded a record 74 times, and the games would have meant a bit more in the season’s final months. A more competitive finish in 2018 might have served as a springboard for James O’Connor’s side heading into 2019, but there’s no way to account for that.
Getting back to Larin for a moment, the club could have sold him to Besiktas or another suitor after a fourth double-digit goals season and a career high in assists, raising the price tag. How the club would have used the extra money in the off-season between 2018 and 2019 will have to forever remain a mystery.
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
Orlando City restarts its 2026 MLS campaign late tonight out west at San Jose.
Welcome to your match thread for a late night midweek matchup tonight between Orlando City (4-9-2, 14 points) and the San Jose Earthquakes (10-3-2, 32 points) at PayPal Park (10:30 p.m., Apple TV). This is the only scheduled meeting between the teams in 2026 and the first time the teams have met since 2024.
Here’s what you need to know ahead of tonight’s match.
History
Orlando City is 3-1-3 in the previous seven MLS meetings with the Quakes since the club joined Major League Soccer in 2015. The Lions got their only away win in the series in the last meeting and enter tonight 1-1-2 on the road against San Jose.
The teams last met on May 18, 2024, with Jack Lynn coming off the bench to score the game’s only goal. Lynn’s strike in the 89th minute broke the scoreless deadlock and lifted the Lions to a 1-0 victory.
The teams met in Orlando most recently way back on June 22, 2021, with the Lions beating the Quakes down, 5-0. Orlando got things started with an early penalty kick goal by Nani, followed by braces from Benji Michel and Daryl Dike to easily put the game away. The lasting memory from the game is Michel’s celebratory dance wearing a cowboy hat that came out of the stands.
Prior to that Orlando City romp, the last time the teams met was on Aug. 31, 2019 when the Lions got freight trained 3-0 at Avaya Stadium, giving the Quakes their first win in the series. San Jose’s offense came via a Chris Wondolowski brace and an early opening goal by Magnus Eriksson. Orlando looked flat and weary out of the gate.
The Lions were victorious in Exploria Stadium in the 2018 meeting on April 21, a 3-2 Orlando win. It was the first win in the series for either side after three straight draws. Chris Mueller, Sacha Kljestan, and Dom Dwyer gave the Lions a 3-0 lead before Florian Jungwirth pulled two back in the game’s late stages.
The Lions led all of the first three matches in the second half only to see San Jose pull level, with two of those tying goals coming late. In the 2017 meeting, Carlos Rivas finally broke the scoreless tie and gave Orlando City the lead in the 81st minute, but Wondolowski spoiled the Lions’ night with an equalizer two minutes later as the teams drew at Avaya Stadium, 1-1.
In 2016, the Lions were gut-punched in the 94th minute in an emotional match that ended in a 2-2 draw. It was the first home match following the Pulse nightclub tragedy and what appeared to be a storybook ending to a cathartic win turned sour on a last-gasp equalizer by Shea Salinas. Seb Hines — now the Orlando Pride’s head coach — opened the scoring for Orlando, only to see Chad Barrett tie it up. Julio Baptista restored the lead in stoppage time, but Salinas ruined everything.
The two teams also drew in the first meeting, a 1-1 affair at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, with the Lions down to 10 men after Brek Shea was sent off in the first half. Kaká and Wondolowski each scored from the penalty spot four minutes apart in that initial meeting.
Overview
The teams meet tonight to get their post-World Cup portion of the season started. Orlando City has been terrible on the road all season long, keeping only one MLS opponent under two goals all year away from home and allowing five goals twice (at New York City FC and Nashville) and six goals twice (at LAFC and in the team’s most recent match away at FC Cincinnati just before the break).
Orlando City is a putrid 1-6-1 on the road this season, and now the Lions must face the Western Conference co-leaders tonight before coming home to face Supporters’ Shield-leading Nashville SC at home on Saturday. They’ll have to play at least tonight’s game without Martin Ojeda, who is out with a thigh injury sustained some time between his first-half goal a week ago in a friendly against FC Dallas and the time the availability report dropped on Tuesday.
But it isn’t all bad news for the Lions, who should have both Antoine Griezmann and Dike in the lineup. Griezmann was the club’s highly prized and widely publicized summer Designated Player signing, while Dike’s return to Orlando came together more recently, following his departure from West Bromwich Albion. They’ll help the club’s offense, but the attack hasn’t been the issue in 2026 — it’s been the historically porous defense, which is on pace to shatter the MLS record for goals conceded.
Meanwhile, San Jose is one of the first half of the season’s biggest surprises, as the Quakes have been outstanding in 2026. Scoring 34 goals while conceding just 15, San Jose is among the league leaders in goals scored (tied for third), goals conceded (third), and goal differential (+19, third).
The Earthquakes are 4-2-1 at home and are coming off a 3-1 road win at Portland in their last game prior to the World Cup break. San Jose boasts Golden Boot challenger Preston Judd, who leads the Quakes with 11 goals, adding two assists in his 15 appearances. Ousseni Bouda has chipped in five goals and three assists. Niko Tsakiris leads the team with seven assists to go along with his two goals, but he’s still recovering from a lower body injury and is not available tonight. However, the arrival of Timo Werner (four goals and five assists in just seven games) has truly elevated Bruce Arena’s Quakes, and he’ll need to be one of the main focal points for the Orlando defense.
To have any shot at taking something from this game, the Lions will need to play better road defense than they have all season. Orlando can score goals, but with Ojeda out, Griezmann will need to adapt quickly, and someone other than the team’s leading scorer will need to find the net.
The Lions will play without Ojeda (thigh), Joran Gerbet (knee), Nolan Miller (knee), Colin Guske (international duty), and Clovis Archage (international duty). In addition, Marco Pasalic may or may not have returned to the team after the World Cup. He was not in training Monday, although interim head coach Martin Perelman said he expected the Croatian back soon. The Earthquakes will be without Nonso Adimabua (lower body), former Lion Earl Edwards Jr. (lower body), DeJuan Jones (lower body), and Tsakiris (you guessed it, lower body…come on, San Jose).
Match Content
- Our most recent PawedCast includes our key matchups and score predictions for tonight’s match.
Official Lineups:
Orlando City (4-4-2)
Goalkeeper: Maxime Crepeau.
Defenders: Adrian Marin, David Brekalo, Robin Jansson, Griffin Dorsey.
Midfielders: Ivan Angulo, Braian Ojeda, Eduard Atuesta, Tiago.
Forwards: Justin Ellis, Antoine Griezmann.
Bench: Javier Otero, Bernardo Rhein, Tahir Reid-Brown, Zakaria Taifi, Iago, Wilder Cartagena, Luis Otavio, Harvey Sarajian, Tyrese Spicer
San Jose Earthquakes (4-2-3-1)
Goalkeeper: Angus Gunn.
Defenders: Jamar Ricketts, Reid Roberts, Daniel Munie, Benjamin Kikanovic.
Defensive Midfielders: Beau Lerouox, Ronaldo Vieira.
Attacking Midfielders: Timo Werner, Nick Fernandez, Ousseni Bouda.
Forwards: Preston Judd.
Bench: Jonathan Gonzalez, Dave Romney, Paul Marie, Jack Skahan, Jack Jasinski, Ian Harkes, Francesco Montali, Max Floriani, Darius Johnson.
Referees
REF: Elijio Arreguin.
AR1: Adam Wienckowski.
AR2: Mike Nickerson.
4TH: Timothy Ford.
VAR: Jose Carlos Rivero.
AVAR: TJ Zablocki.
How to Watch
Match Time: 10:30 p.m.
Venue: PayPal Park — San Jose, CA.
TV/Live Stream: Apple TV.
Radio: AM 810 FOX Sports Radio Orlando (English), Mega 97.1 FM (Spanish), Nossa Rádio 1160 AM-WRLZ (Portuguese).
Social Media: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow us on Bluesky Social at @themaneland.bsky.social or follow Orlando City’s official Twitter (@OrlandoCitySC) or Bluesky (@OrlandoCitySC) feed.
Enjoy the match. Go City!
Podcasts
PawedCast Episode 542: Tampa Bay Friendly, McGuire Traded, OCB Beats Cincinnati, and More
Lions maul the Rowdies in friendly action, OCB wins on the road, and it’s transfer season.
Orlando City welcomed I-4 Derby rival Tampa Bay to Inter&Co Stadium for a friendly match on Wednesday and then proceeded to bludgeon the Rowdies with a couple of hammers named Antoine Griezmann and Justin Ellis. The two attackers combined for a goal and four assists in a 6-0 beatdown of the team from the Gulf Coast, with five different Lions scoring and Griffin Dorsey forcing an own goal. We discuss Griezmann’s first minutes with Orlando City, what the team showed in its formation, and how good Justin Ellis’ vision is.
Oh, and it’s also transfer season now. Duncan McGuire is on his way out and Marco Pasalic reportedly will follow soon, while a new left back may be headed from Spain to Orlando.
Following all of that, we discuss Maxime Crepeau being added to the MLS All-Star Team and the announcement that he’ll participate in the 2026 MLS All-Star Skills Challenge.
Our mailbagbox asked us about which World Cup semifinalist players we’d want to join Orlando this season (if we could only pick one), and more. Remember, if there’s anything — and we do mean anything — you want us to address on the show, just ask us by tweeting it to us at @TheManeLand with the hashtag #AskTMLPC, or hitting us up on Bluesky Social with that same hashtag.
After the mailbagbox, we dive into OCB’s 2-1 road win at FC Cincinnati 2. It wasn’t the prettiest game by the Young Lions, but they managed to do enough to earn three points on the road, where they’ll stay to face Chattanooga on Saturday. We briefly preview that game.
Finally, Orlando City will be in Dallas Wednesday for the second of two friendlies leading up to the restart of the MLS season. It’s unlikely we’ll get a lot of details about that one, but we’ll see what happens. Maybe the FC Dallas folks will help us out.
Be sure to rate and review our show wherever you get your podcasts. Remember, we’ll read any five-star reviews we get on Apple Podcasts on the next show.
If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.
Here’s how No. 542 went down:
0:15 – Orlando City crushed the Rowdies, the transfer season is in full swing, plus: hey now, Crepeau’s an all-star.
28:50 – The mailbagbox is always good for a hypothetical scenario.
36:54 – The Young Lions slipped past Cincy and head to Chattanooga, while the senior Lions head to Dallas.
Podcasts
SkoPurp Soccer Episode 119: International Break, USWNT, Louisville Preview, and More
The Pride return from a long international break looking to get their first-ever road win against Racing Louisville.
It feels like months since the Orlando Pride last took the field, but the calendar says otherwise. If you believe calendars, it’s only been a little less than three weeks, but time moves strangely in the post-pandemic apocalyptic world.
Anyway, we don’t have a match to recap, so we touched on a couple of Pride players putting the ball in the net during the international break and chat a bit about the United States Women’s National Team’s three-game friendly series against Japan. Emma Hayes used a lot of players, and the team looked solid for two of the three matches, but the rotated middle game seemed a bit disjointed. Hayes has greatly expanded the player pool and will have plenty of options when the World Cup approaches.
Our mailbagbox had questions about a potential change in the NWSL schedule, as the league explores adopting the fall-to-spring slate, and opposition own goals. Remember, you can ask us anything by hitting us up on Twitter at either @TheManeLand or @SkoPurpSoccer and using the hashtag #AskSkoPurp. You can use that same hashtag and hit @TheManeLand.bsky.social up on Bluesky. Or you can visit our show page, scroll down, and fill out the handy form. We’d also appreciate any ratings or reviews you can leave wherever you get your podcasts, and if you do that on Apple Podcasts, we’ll find them easily and read them on the show.
After the mailbagbox, we turned our attention toward Friday’s late afternoon tussle with Racing Louisville in Kentucky. The Pride have never won on the road against Louisville, and it’s about high time they did. This match begins a congested push to the June World Cup break, and although Friday’s hosts aren’t high in the table, the Pride must be at their best to get a road result in this fixture. We look back at the series history, compare the two sides, provide our key matchups in the game, and make our final score predictions.
If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.
Here’s how Episode 119 went down:
0:15 – We open the show with a little banter about the Pride in the international break and the USWNT’s series vs. Japan.
9:03 – The mailbagbox features questions via both eletronic mail and social media. We welcome all modes of delivery.
19:59 – The Pride travel to Louisville to face Racing. They’ve never won in Kentucky, but we inform them how to do so.
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