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Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. Minnesota United

Get up to speed on Minnesota United, courtesy of the people who know the team best.

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Photo by Tim McLaughlin / courtesy of Northland Soccer Journal

After a nice little break, we are once again on the eve of an Orlando City matchday. The Lions will hit the road to try to get back to winning ways, and fans will see a familiar face in the dugout as OCSC takes on the Adrian Heath-led Minnesota United FC.

A clash with Minnesota means I spoke with Alan Van Wyk, one of the writers over at Northland Soccer Journal, previously SBNation’s E Pluribus Loonum. Like ourselves, the folks over at Northland have recently gone independent, so make sure you go check out their new digs, especially since I answered some of their questions about the Lions over at their place.

Talk me through Minnesota’s transfer business from the end of last season until now. What were the key departures, if any, and who has come in to replace them?

Alan Van Wyk: It was a rather typical off-season for MN United. Alan Benitez, Abu Danladi, Oniel Fisher, Jonathan Gonzalez, Niko Hansen, Jacori Hayes, Aziel Jackson, Nabilai Kibunguchy [editor’s note: Nabi is now with Orlando City B], Justin McMaster, Romain Métanire, Callum Montgomery, and Tyler Miller were all let go. Most surprising, or at least most disappointing, were the departures of starting right back and previous MLS All-Star Métanire and U.S. international and starting goalkeeper Miller. After trying to be brought back from injury too quickly too many times over the past two seasons Métanire was released for injury reasons, while Miller was simply allowed to leave, with the club turning to young Canadian international Dayne St. Clair as their starting keeper.

Most of the club’s new signings were designed to add defensive depth to the team, a need that became especially pressing last season when the team struggled after losing center back Bakaye Dibassy, who is still out recovering from a rather freakish thigh injury, and to continue their desire to get younger. Coming in this year were young attacking player Cameron Dunbar, veteran defender Doneil Henry, who is still working his way back into fitness, veteran goalkeeper Clint Irwin, SuperDraft signee Ryen Jiba, young defender Mikael Marqués, defender Micky Tapias, veteran defender Zarek Valentin, and the most recent signing, young South Korean international striker Sang Bin Jeong.

Of most important note, at the moment, are Tapias, Valentin, and Sang Bin. Tapias has very quickly established a strong partnership with Michael Boxall in the center of the Loons’ defense, while Valentin looks to be an important option at right back. Sang Bin has yet to see significant minutes, after clearing paperwork and securing his visa, he was first available last weekend in Chicago, but he looked very good in his brief substitute appearance.

The Loons have had a good start to the season and only lost for the first time last week. What has MNUFC been doing well up to this point?

AVW: The next three answers all begin with some form of “missing DP playmaker Emanuel Reynoso,” but we’ll leave a fuller explanation of that situation for next. For now, Minnesota did have a great start to the season: a five-game opening run that began and ended with statement road wins against FC Dallas and St. Louis City, with a bye-week, another win, and two draws in between. As has been well established, Head Coach Adrian Heath is ride-or-die with the 4-2-3-1, which was built, in Minnesota, around Reynoso. In Reynoso’s absence, the team has turned to a more defensive 4-4-2, which has allowed them to sit back and absorb pressure while remaining opportunistic in attack. Averaging 43% possession this season, the Loons are quite comfortable without the ball, taking advantage of a few quick breaks and very well taken set pieces by Franco Fragapane for delivery and Kervin Arriaga on goal.

Like Orlando, Minnesota hasn’t been scoring a ton to start the year, with seven goals in six games. What do you think has been holding them back in front of goal?

AVW: “Missing DP playmaker Emanuel Reynoso.” This is going to get long, but, to back up for just a moment, Reynoso joined Minnesota in 2020 and immediately took over the team, forming an attacking partnership with Kevin Molino that the Loons rode to the conference finals of that season’s MLS Cup. Over the past few years, Heath and Chief Soccer Officer Manny Lagos have built the team around Reynoso. Last season, the club and Reynoso agreed to a new three-year with club option contract, and at the announcement everyone said all the right things: MNUFC were excited to have Reynoso long-term, Reynoso was happy to make a home in Minnesota, etc., etc., etc. Then Reynoso failed to report for camp in January this year. At first, his failure to appear was treated by the club as nothing exceptional: St. Clair was going to get a few days off after the World Cup, Kemar Lawrence was dealing with some personal issues in Jamaica and would join the team later in Florida, Fragapane would be a few days late, what with the difficulty of winter-weather/international travel from Argentina, and Reynoso was going to be late dealing with some “personal issues” at home.

This was the club’s stance until it wasn’t, ‘Reynoso is home dealing with some personal issues but will hopefully be joining the team soon.’ In early February, the league suspended Reynoso without pay for failing to show up, and the club revealed that there hadn’t been much contact with Reynoso or his people up to that point. They now hoped that “common sense would prevail” and that Reynoso would be joining the team soon. He remains suspended by the league and not a part of the active roster. There are, of course, as there always will be, a number of rumors about Reynoso’s absence, but there is very little that we actually know; the people who do know, both those with Reynoso in Argentina and those at the club, are not saying anything of substance. So he remains absent until he is not.

With that, to say that this team has been built around Reynoso is a bit of an understatement. For the past few seasons, the Loons’ strategy has been to not give up goals and get the ball to Reynoso as quickly and as often as possible and let him do something special — a strategy that has gotten them into the playoffs three years in a row. The team is still founded on a very stout defense, but has lost its structural ability to generate any offense. When the Loons return to the 4-2-3-1, as they did last weekend against Chicago, they remain a team divided, with six players sitting defensively deep, three players staying high on offense, and the No. 10 in the middle bridging the gap between the two. Reynoso was incredibly good at that role, receiving the ball just inside Minnesota’s half, turning and making a 10-to-15-yard run to start the attack. Robin Lod, who is being asked to play that No. 10 role in Reynoso’s absence, is an incredibly good player for the Loons and should consistently lead the team in goals and assists, but he is not good at turning and carrying the ball into the attack through the middle.

Without Reynoso in the 4-2-3-1, the striker is out on an island and the two wide midfielders are stranded in the in-between. The other problem for Minnesota’s offense this season has been the form of their two DP strikers, Ménder García and Luis Amarilla. Amarilla has seemingly lost all confidence and so is over-thinking and falling a step behind in everything he does, while García is still very young and growing into his game. With the right support, García will become a very good attacking player, but at the moment he is still a half season away from that. It is still very early, but it seems that as soon as Sang Bin is integrated into the team and finds his full fitness he will be starting up front, either alongside Amarilla or García in the 4-4-2 or by himself in the 4-2-3-1.

Are there any players unavailable to selection due to injuries, suspensions, call-ups etc? What is your projected starting lineup and score prediction?

AVW: The two absences of note for the weekend will be Reynoso and Dibassy. The team has, in Tapias, found a way to cover for Dibassy’s absence in the center of their defense. They have not found a way to cover for Reynoso’s absence in the center of their offense. As for how the team will line up, only Heath and his staff know that. Most fans and media here are getting on board with the idea that this team works better in a 4-4-2, but as last weekend showed, there is still a commitment to the 4-2-3-1.

With that, the open questions remain up front and the decision to go with Amarilla, García, or Sang Bin or some combination of the three; whether Lod will remain in the middle of the field, or if he will move up front to a false 9, replacing one of the other forwards, or if he will return out wide, pushing Bongokuhle Hlongwane to the bench; and whether Hassani Dotson has done enough and has regained enough full fitness in his recovery from a season-ending ACL tear last year to move into the starting XI in midfield, giving Kervin Arriaga or Wil Trapp a rotational break before the team faces Seattle next weekend.

[No score prediction provided]


Thank you to Alan, for an in-depth look at MNUFC. Vamos Orlando!

Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/26/24

Orlando City plays CF Montreal tonight, USWNT wins against Zambia, Marta provides assist in Brazil’s win, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Happy Friday! I hope the work week has gone easy on you as we get ready for a weekend filled to the brim with soccer to enjoy. The Olympic opening ceremony is also today, and I’m interested to see what the organizers in Paris have come up with. But for now, let’s get this Friday started with today’s links!

Orlando City Takes On CF Montreal Tonight

The Leagues Cup kicks off today and Orlando City will host CF Montreal tonight in its first of two group games. The Lions will then take on Atletico de San Luis on Aug. 4. It’s worth noting that these games will go into a penalty shootout if the score remains level after 90 minutes, with the winner of the shootout getting an extra point. The top two teams of each group advance to the next round and Orlando will play the Philadelphia Union, Cruz Azul, or Charlotte FC if it survives the group stage.

USWNT Beats Zambia in Summer Olympic Opener

The United States Women’s National Team started its Olympic campaign with a dominant 3-0 win against Zambia. The USWNT’s attack looked free and dangerous, with Trinity Rodman striking first and Mallory Swanson scoring twice in quick succession to give the USWNT a comfortable lead. Those goals also came before Zambia was reduced to 10 players after a red card to Pauline Zulu. The Orlando Pride’s Barbra Banda and Grace Chanda both started for Zambia, although Chanda was subbed out in the first half when Zambia had to make changes due to the red card.

There is some bad news along with the good for the USWNT though. Jaedyn Shaw missed out on playing in the opener due to a leg injury, and Sophia Smith had to exit in the 42nd minute.

Marta Assists in Brazil’s Olympic Win

The USWNT was far from the only team to win its first game of this year’s Olympics, as there were no draws after the first round of games. Pride star Marta provided the assist on Brazil’s only goal in a 1-0 win over Nigeria. Marta did well to pick out Gabi Nunes from a tough angle, and the striker had a great first touch and strike to put it away. Pride defender Rafaelle helped secure the shutout, with Brazilian goalkeeper Lorena coming up with huge saves as well. Elsewhere in Group C, Spain’s Aitana Bonmati had a goal and an assist in her team’s 2-1 win against Japan.

New Zealand struck first against Canada in Group A, but the Canadians rallied to come back and win 2-1. France scored three goals in the first half and survived a rally from Colombia in the second half to win 3-2. Germany may have had the most impressive win so far, beating a talented Australian side 3-0.

Analyzing New Zealand Ahead of Olympic Clash

The United States Men’s Olympic Soccer Team will aim to bounce back from a loss to France when it faces New Zealand on Saturday. New Zealand beat Guinea in its first game and is coached by Darren Bazeley, who led New Zealand to the knockout stage of the 2023 U-20 World Cup. Minnesota United center back Michael Boxall and Viking FK midfielder Joe Bell are two of New Zealand’s overage players and give the team some stability. Goalkeeper Alex Paulsen, who joined Bournemouth this summer, is capable of coming up with acrobatic saves to give the U.S. fits as well. As for New Zealand’s attack, midfielder Sarpreet Singh and striker Ben Waine are a couple of the dynamic players the U.S. will have to keep in check.

Bev Priestman Removed From Canadian Olympic Team

Canada will have to go the rest of the Olympics without Head Coach Bev Priestman, who was removed from the team by the Canadian Olympic Committee. This decision comes amid a scandal involving spying on New Zealand’s training, which led to Canada Soccer suspending Priestman for the rest of the tournament. Reports have also surfaced that Canada’s men’s and women’s teams have tried to spy on opponents for years, including during the women’s team’s winning campaign in the 2021 Olympics. Only time will tell if Priestman will coach the team after this tournament and if punishments for the team’s actions will be handed out.

Free Kicks


That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend. Enjoy the Olympics!

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Orlando City’s 2024 Offensive Blueprint (So Far)

An evaluation of how Orlando City has been trying to score goals in 2024.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

All right, now that we have pushed the limit on puns and wordplay about that album, let’s look at some numbers related to Orlando City’s offense. First, let’s start with the direction of play, because Orlando City has a very clear plan of attack in 2024, and it involves the left side. According to the tracking from whoscored.com, Orlando City attacks down the left side on nearly half of its possessions.

No team in MLS favors one side of the field as frequently as Orlando City’s 45% on the left side, and it is interesting that it is so high down the left because Facundo Torres, generally regarded as the squad’s most creative and dangerous player, plays most frequently on the right side of the field. I think there are three primary reasons for the left side favoritism:

  • Iván Angulo is one of the fastest players in MLS and spends most of his time on the left side of the field, so the team tries to get him into space so he can use that speed to get the defense on its heels.
  • Orlando City has three left-footed players who love a cross so much I am surprised they play for Orlando City and not Vatican City. Rafael Santos averages 5.1 crosses per 90 mins (27th in MLS), Nico Lodeiro averages 5.6 (16th), and Martín Ojeda averages 9.61 (second). Ojeda has been playing more centrally recently, but he still drifts to the left frequently. Lodeiro does the same, and Santos nearly exclusively stays on the left side. All three of them are crossing machines.
  • Torres loves to cut back into the middle from his normal slot on the right side of the field, and so crossing it from left to right gives him space to operate, as the defense has to recover on a switch of field, and a scrambling defense against a talented attacking player is advantageous for Orlando City. Torres is fifth in MLS in receiving passes from 10+ yards away in the offensive area of the field, and his per-90-minute average for those receptions has increased from 2022 (8.4) to 2023 (9.8) to 2024 (11.4). Additionally, here is Facu’s shot chart for the year, courtesy of fotmob.com, and you can see that of his seven non-penalty-kick goals, all of them come from the right half of the field (his most recent goal against New England is highlighted with the red circle, because after a few minutes I gave up on trying to figure out how to show this without having one highlighted):

Expanding a little bit off of the direction of play, but returning to the second item in the list above, Orlando City leads all of MLS with an average of 21.32 crosses per 90 minutes. The other 28 MLS teams average 16.6 crosses per 90 minutes, so Orlando City is crossing the ball 28% more frequently than the average MLS team. The Lions have a physical presence in Duncan McGuire in the middle, so this makes sense to target him with crosses into the 18, and in fact the team is fourth in MLS this season with an average of 2.4 completed crosses into the penalty areas per 90 minutes.

It is not just Duncan though, of the 36 goals Orlando City players have scored this season (the other three are own goals), nine of them have come on a header and by eight different players. That 25% of goals scored on a header is the highest percentage for any Orlando City team in fbref.com’s tracking (goes back to 2018) and ranks the team only behind Austin FC’s 29% in MLS this season.

All crosses do not necessarily end in headers, but nearly all headers come from crosses, and the irony of the fact that Orlando City is scoring a high percentage of its goals from headers is that the Lions rank, to use a technical term, DFL in the league in percentage of aerial balls won (40.1%, and the next lowest is 45.4%). It’s kind of like the tagline to those Most Interesting Man in the World beer commercials from Dos Equis — the Lions don’t often win aerial balls, but when they do, they score goals.

Flipping from balls in the air to balls that are generally played on the ground, according to the data tracked by Opta on fbref.com, Orlando City is seventh in MLS in completed through balls per 90 minutes with an average of 1.5. The Lions have been in the top third of MLS in four of the last five seasons in this statistic, as this is clearly a staple of an Óscar Pareja-coached squad.

If you look at the individual MLS players who are leading the league in completing these dangerous balls, it is a veritable who’s who of creative players across the league. Say what you will about Luis Muriel, and I wrote a whole article about him a few weeks ago, but his passing ability is excellent, and it did not surprise me at all to see him high on this list and among the other well-known names. Here are the top 15, which also includes Lodeiro, among players who have played at least 500 minutes:

I touched on the left side focus earlier and how Angulo’s speed plays a large role in why the team plays more frequently down the left side, and that comes into play here as well with Orlando City’s predilection for playing through balls. It is also now time for Dagur Dan Thórhallsson to enter the chat, because he is just as much of a through ball target as Ruan was for several years in making speed runs up the right side of the field, and he ranks 24th among defenders in goal-creating actions per 90 minutes (0.24). Coincidentally, he also ranks 24th in shot-creating actions per 90 minutes (2.0). McGuire is also a target for these through balls as he makes excellent shallow runs behind defenders to then run onto balls played in front of him, and Ramiro Enrique is also pacey enough to do the same.

The completed crosses and through balls, as well as the fact that Orlando City is in the top 10 in total completed passes per 90 minutes, contribute to the team leading MLS with 10.1 completed passes into the penalty area per 90 minutes. The rest of MLS averages only 8.4, so Orlando City’s offensive tactics puts the team 20% higher than the rest of the league in terms of its frequency of completing passes to teammates inside the box.

Now, what teams want are goals, not completed passes into the penalty area, but you can see what the Lions are trying to do offensively by looking what these numbers reveal about how they are directing their attacking play.

Orlando City has a burner on the left (Angulo) and also several left-footed players who have the ability to whip in a dangerous cross (Ojeda, Lodeiro, Santos), so the focus is more on going down the left than the middle or the right. The Lions do have a fullback (Thórhallsson) with pace on the right too, so he is a target when they go right, and as a former midfielder, he has the ability to create offense coming forward, so he does with great frequency. The best finisher (Torres) is out on the right but loves to cut back to his left, and this year there is a higher focus on getting him the ball in space as opposed to having him leading the buildup.

Three players (Ojeda, Lodeiro, Muriel) are sharing the 10 role and releasing through balls to the outside and inside threats, and McGuire and Enrique are essentially serving as soccer versions of a basketball rim runner, attacking the goalmouth and trying to score in any way possible.

It all sounds great on paper, but for much of the season the offense was sputtering — so much so that Orlando City has scored more goals in the last seven games (20, 2.9 goals per game) than it did in its first 18 games (19, 1.1 goals per game). The first half of the season contained several issues that I believe contributed heavily to the low goal-scoring output, with several injuries, games missed for international duty, and competing in Concacaf Champions Cup at the same time as the start of the regular season, forcing squad rotation and players playing outside of their normal positions.

There was also just some poor play during those early months as well, some self-inflicted poor performances. I believe that Orlando City has found something though in the last few weeks, and while the Lions may not score 2.9 goals per game for the rest of the season, I think that what we have seen recently is a settled team of players who know their roles and understand the strategy, and who have the ability to execute that strategy.

Just 17 years after it was released, Jay-Z’s The Blueprint was selected by the Library of Congress for preservation in the United States National Recording Registry for being “culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant.” Let’s hope that 17 years from now, in 2041, we are all looking back fondly on what became an athletically significant 2024 season for Orlando City.

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Orlando City vs. CF Montreal: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to start the Leagues Cup?

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Orlando City plays CF Montreal in its first 2024 Leagues Cup match Friday night at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions have been on a nice five-match undefeated streak during the regular season. Oscar Pareja loves tournament play and will certainly do everything he can to win this first match.

What does Orlando City need to do to defeat CF Montreal in the Don Garber Loves Money Cup…er, the Leagues Cup?

Stop the Canucks

Montreal has scored 34 goals in the regular season. However, only four of those goals came in the last five matches. Still, Orlando City seems to have trouble with this Montreal squad no matter where the match is played. As such, I want to see the defense that shut down D.C. United and Nashville SC, not the one that allowed multiple goals against the Chicago Fire.

That means Pareja needs to get the left back position sorted. I know he wants the Rafael Santos of 2023 to show up in 2024. So far, Santos has not found the good form from a year ago. Kyle Smith has been mostly good when he’s gotten time on the left, but he’s not the first choice.

There’s also the matter of David Brekalo. I think that Pareja kept rolling with Rodrigo Schlegel because the Lions went on a run as Brekalo was on international duty. Now, he can re-insert Brekalo in the starting spot since it won’t affect the MLS standings. Whether he does or not is the real question.

Smart Rotation

I mentioned the potential options on the back line, but there are other players who could use a rest, could recover from a knock, or need some additional playing time. Of course, Pareja tends to stick with what is working, so I’m not sure how much rotation we will see to start the match. He can, however, change up how he uses his substitutes.

If Pareja decides to sit Facundo Torres to allow him to be fully healthy, he still has Martin Ojeda playing well. Jeorgio Kocevski has been effective in his limited minutes, making him a good candidate to see some more time, even if he doesn’t start. Competitions like Leagues Cup can allow the team to heal up or rest up before the regular season starts back up.

Revive the Attack

Ramiro Enrique is on a scoring streak. I’m glad he is since Duncan McGuire is with the U.S. Olympic team, but Orlando City needs more. I think the Leagues Cup is a good opportunity to try anything and everything to get Luis Muriel better integrated into the Orlando City attack. He has the talent, but something hasn’t quite clicked yet.

This is also an opportunity for others to contribute some goals. It’s been a bit since Nico Lodeiro scored one. Ojeda could use a banger to get going again, and don’t forget Jack Lynn. Montreal has given up 49 goals in the regular season and has a -15 goal differential. The Lions need to take advantage of such a defense to spark some offensive production.


That is what I will be looking for Friday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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