Luis Muriel scored his first two MLS goals and Nico Lodeiro assisted on all three Orlando City strikes as the Lions beat the Philadelphia Union 3-2 at Subaru Park in Chester, PA. For Orlando City (3-5-3, 12 points), which also got a goal from Duncan McGuire, it snapped a two-game losing streak and a three-match winless skid, but the Lions had to suffer quite a bit for their points, enduring two penalties, a scary-looking injury to Robin Jansson, an overturned Philadelphia red card, and about 19 minutes of stoppage time in order to beat the Union (3-3-5, 14 points).

Mikael Uhre and Daniel Gazdag (penalty) scored for Philadelphia, but Orlando held on through a nervy finish to claim the points.

“First (I want to) congratulate the players for such an effort today. The bravery that they had and the cooperation that they showed to each other during the game was exceptional,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said after the game. “Its a very difficult place to come and win, but we’re proud. We really played a very, very good first half, where we created many chances. It’s great for us as well Luis has started scoring. So, many things happened and we’ll keep going. The journey is long.”

Faced with not having starting fullback Rafael Santos and not wanting to rush Dagur Dan Thorhallsson (who was on the bench) back into the fray, Pareja opted to not use anyone who regularly plays fullback in his starting lineup. Michael Halliday wasn’t in the team after picking up a knock late in the week in training.

Goalkeeper Pedro Gallese lined up behind a back line of Jansson, Wilder Cartagena, and David Brekalo. Ivan Angulo and Facundo Torres slotted in at wingbacks on the outside of a midfield that also included Cesar Araujo, Martin Ojeda, and Lodeiro, with Muriel and McGuire up top in a 3-5-2.

“We came here today with a different proposal,” Pareja said of his lineup change. “We extended our line in the back, but not with fullbacks, but with wingers. And I think we put everything that we had on the pitch trying to get the win from the start.”

The Lions started brightly, with a lot of early possession in the attacking third, but the only thing to come from it was Torres hitting the outside of the left post from a tight angle in the fifth minute.

The Union started to get more settled and created a shot on their first real attacking buildup, but Cartagena blocked Jack McGlynn’s effort out for a corner. The Lions dealt with the initial set piece and tried to break on the counterattack, however, Orlando never could gain control of the ball and Philadelphia recycled it into the top of the area before City could regain its shape. Uhre ended up with the ball in the box and slotted home inside the left post to make it 1-0 in the 12th minute.

Mikael Uhre's fourth of the season gives Philadelphia the early lead!

📺 #MLSSeasonPass: https://t.co/d21BZWE1tz pic.twitter.com/SFcRdwW1FK

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) May 11, 2024

McGuire was picked out in the box by a great entry ball by Muriel moments later, but the second-year striker was quickly closed down by three defenders. Trying to work his way higher in the box, McGuire went down under contact, but no foul was given and there was no pause for a review on the next stoppage.

Philadelphia should have had a second in the 15th minute, but Gallese robbed Gazdag, who had taken a great layoff from Uhre, who was holding off Cartagena, taking advantage of the midfielder-turned-center back. Gallese did well to keep the deficit at one.

Muriel and Ojeda sent shots over the bar in the 16th and 17th minutes, respectively, as the Lions continued looking dangerous in the attack. That finally paid off in the 21st minute. After playing a corner kick short, the ball was knocked out of the box and recycled to Lodeiro on the left. The midfield maestro got to the end line and sent a great cross into the box. McGuire made a great run to get across his defender and nodded it down and in to make it 1-1 with his fifth league goal of the season.

Duncan McGuire equalizes it for Orlando! pic.twitter.com/0E6ql4r5rl

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) May 12, 2024

Muriel conceded a set piece near the touchline in the 22nd minute, giving Philadelphia a chance to get the goal right back, but the Lions cleared the danger and Gallese caught the recycled entry ball to end the threat.

The Union had a great chance in the 29th minute off a short corner. Jose Martinez took the pass and fizzed a laser cross to Bedoya at the top of the six. The veteran midfielder tried to steer it on frame but it had so much pace on it that it deflected out for an Orlando throw.

Philadelphia kept coming. McGlynn sent either a cross or a shot onto the roof of the net in the 33rd minute, and Quinn Sullivan sent a shot just high and just wide right in the 35th. Uhre had a go from a tight angle on the right a minute later but Gallese was well positioned and made the easy save.

The Lions thought they had a penalty in the 40th minute when an entry ball went off Martinez near the edge of his shirt sleeve. Timothy Ford did not call a penalty and on the next stoppage the play was reviewed, but it was close and no obvious error was detected.

No matter. Orlando scored seconds after the review. A bad pass by Martinez was picked off by Angulo, who sent it to Lodeiro. The Uruguayan flicked it to Muriel, who cut inside on his left and sent a rocket shot into the upper left corner for his first MLS goal. The Lions led 2-1 in the 42nd minute.

LUIS MURIEL 📣

No stopping his first MLS goal as Orlando takes the lead! pic.twitter.com/ULC2K4qmry

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) May 12, 2024

“It was a situation where we recovered the ball high up the field and really quickly,” Muriel said through a club interpreter. “When I saw Nico making his run, I made sure to just put myself in a good position, and I started to cut inside and just saw an opportunity to hit it. Thankfully, it was a really good strike.”

Again the Union nearly pulled the goal right back as Bedoya nodded a header right at Gallese in the 44th minute, however, the Lions nearly got right back in on goal through McGuire, who was barely beaten to a loose ball in the box by goalkeeper Oliver Semmle to deny a golden chance.

Lodeiro had the last good look for either side in the second minute of first-half stoppage, sending a shot toward goal that deflected just wide by the defense. The halftime whistle came moments later and Orlando held onto a one-goal lead at the break.

Orlando City attempted more shots (9-7) and corners (5-3) in the first half, while Philadelphia finished the opening period with more possession (59.8%-40.2%), shots on target (4-3), and passing accuracy (79.4%-76.9%).

Muriel doubled the lead just after the restart. Lodeiro ended up with the ball at midfield and threaded a through ball up the middle. Muriel timed his run perfectly, put the ball on his right foot, and calmly slipped it past Semmle to make it 3-1 just 20 seconds after the start of the second half. The play underwent a review for offside but was confirmed.

Muriel does it again for Orlando! ✌️

He only needs 20 seconds of the second half to secure the brace. pic.twitter.com/K8a1LHoWV2

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) May 12, 2024

“I was right there in line with the defenders and Nico was able to find me in a great way,” Muriel said. “And so once he put me in on goal, it was easy for me to finish. So, those are two goals that really fill me with confidence today.”

“A very important moment for Luis to come through this way with the team,” Pareja said. “Scoring goals is what he came for and today was a night that he will remember, not just because we won it but he scored those two goals that are very necessary for his confidence, and the whole team as well.”

Philadelphia’s first chance of the half came in the 48th minute, but Jansson was able to block Gazdag’s effort from near the top of the box.

Moments later, at the other end, a good cross from Lodeiro on the left would have fallen for Angulo at the back post if Kai Wagner hadn’t arrived in time to nod it behind for a corner. Brekalo got his head to the ensuing corner cross, but his body was turned sideways from jockeying for position with the defense and he couldn’t steer it on frame.

Sullivan scored in the 54th minute but the flag came up immediately. The Philadelphia attacker and Brekalo were nearly even, but there wasn’t enough evidence for the video assistant referee to overturn the call on the field, and the Lions were spared some blushes from losing an aerial ball in their box that Gazdag knocked down.

McGuire got in behind in the 57th minute and Semmle was caught out of his net. The Orlando striker chipped the ball but it went wide of the left post and the flag came up anyway.

Martinez sent a ball into the Orlando box in the 59th minute but it was close enough to Gallese for him to catch it to end the threat. At this point in the game, the Union were throwing numbers forward and the Lions’ defensive block was getting pushed lower. Another dangerous ball into the box at the hour mark bounced out for a corner off Jansson on a cross in that Orlando didn’t deal with properly.

Pareja made his first substitution before that corner could be taken, sending Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, who cleared concussion protocol, onto the pitch for Ojeda, who had a quiet night and was a bit untidy with the ball. Thorhallsson took the right wingback slot, pushing Angulo to the left side and Torres up the pitch into a more advanced position.

On the ensuing corner, Jansson went down as the ball was cleared out and stayed down. He ultimately had to be stretchered off the field and was replaced by Kyle Smith. To make matters worse for Orlando City, the deflected ball changed directions and caught Lodeiro’s hand as he was pulling it in toward his body. Although the ball fell for a half chance for the Union, Ford went to the monitor and deemed it a penalty. Gazdag sent Gallese to his right and scored right down the middle to make it 3-2 in the 66th minute.

Gazdag converts the penalty to get the Union back within one. 👀 pic.twitter.com/2E5U9Gxgt5

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) May 12, 2024

It was a tough break for Orlando, as Jansson had been strong up to that point in the match, while Philadelphia was buoyed by pulling within a goal with plenty of time left in the game.

Much of the remainder of the game was spent in Orlando’s half, with the Union trying to play balls in over the top from the wings or work their way into the box from the channels. Lodeiro did well to block a Bedoya cross attempt out for a corner in the 70th minute, and Jakob Glesnes sent his header on the ensuing set piece wide a minute later.

Moments after that, Bedoya passed up a shot to head a cross back to the left post, where Uhre was waiting. The play nearly came off for the Union but Gallese got over and the ball ended up hitting off the woodwork and Uhre and landing on the roof of the net.

The game nearly took a dramatic change in the 74th minute when McGuire was sent in behind and went down due to contact with Damion Lowe. Ford produced a red card immediately for denial of a goal-scoring opportunity. However, he then went to the monitor and determined there was no foul because Lowe got a touch on the ball.

Uhre could have tied it in the 78th minute. A direct ball found Uhre over the top and Gallese could probably have gotten to it first but he got caught flatfooted well out of his goal. However, the Peruvian was able to block Uhre’s shot attempt to preserve the lead.

Orlando kept looking to put the game away on the counterattack but simply couldn’t find the final ball. Angulo sped down the left side in the 78th minute but his cross was knocked away by Semmle and the defense cleared. Moments later, Brekalo led the transition break himself, but when the ball got to the Union box, a wayward pass allowed the defense to intercept it and killed the threat.

Glesnes tried his luck from distance in the 80th minute, but his shot was always going wide of the left post.

Orlando’s next counter opportunity in the 84th minute ended when a cross into the box to Lodeiro bounced high and the Uruguayan could only get under his half-volley shot, sending it high.

Ford handed the Union a lifeline in the 86th minute, calling a soft penalty on Angulo. The speedy winger-turned-wingback was on Nathan Harriel, who went down easily, and Ford bought it. After going to the monitor twice before, this time he didn’t, and the call stood.

Gazdag stepped up to take another spot kick, and this time he tried to go to his left. Gallese red the play and the Union’s star man left his shot too close to the middle. Gallese parried it away with a huge save, but it fell back to Gazdag, who sent his rebound attempt over the bar, ending the threat.

Gallese denies Gazdag from the spot! 😮 pic.twitter.com/FeZKuJJEzU

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) May 12, 2024

It was the first time in MLS play that Gazdag has failed to score on a penalty kick attempt.

McGuire was booked as the game reached the 90th minute and the fourth official put 15 minutes on the board. There were two video reviews and the Jansson injury, but 15 still seemed excessive. That ended up growing to nearly 19 minutes in the end.

Philadelphia came close in the 91st minute, but Felipe, who had come on for Muriel late, did well to get a toe on a cross that almost certainly would have been tucked home in front. A minute later, Brekalo did just enough to bother Lowe’s header attempt, which sailed off target. Brekalo followed that by blocking a Wagner cross in the 93rd minute. Sullivan sliced a shot well wide to the right a minute later.

The Lions managed to kill a few minutes until Lowe jumped up into the play in the 98th minute but sent his long-range shot fizzing over the bar.

The final chance came deep in the 18th minute of stoppage on a Union corner. The ball pinged dangerously around the box off multiple players before flying just over the crossbar. Ford called the match complete at that point, and the Lions could finally breathe easier.

Philadelphia ended up owning the stat sheet, finishing with the advantage in possession (61.5%-38.5%), shots (31-13), shots on target (7-4), corners (7-6), and passing accuracy (80.4%-73.5%).

“We have been getting through hard times and the (team’s) fate is still intact,” Pareja said. “So, we worked very hard today and (the win) was very deserved.”

“It was a great game. I think it was something that we were wishing for coming in after two tough games that we lost, but I think today we deserved this win,” Muriel said. “And with all the work that this group has been putting together, just just very happy for that.”

While Pareja and company wait to see the extent of Jansson’s injury, the encouraging thing for the Lions is that Muriel finally looked every bit the part of the Designated Player from Serie A that he was billed to be. Aside from his two goals, his passing unlocked the defense multiple times. Additionally, Lodeiro had one of his best matches since joining Orlando City, and showed that he still has the quality to create for his teammates.

With the win, Orlando City improved to 6-7-6 in the all-time MLS series against the Union (7-8-6 in all competitions) and is now 4-5-1 in league matches at Subaru Park (4-6-1 in all competitions).

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Orlando City has a quick turnaround, returning home to face Inter Miami in the second leg of the 2024 Tropic Thunder rivalry Wednesday night.

Welcome to your match thread for a Saturday night matchup between Orlando City SC (2-5-3, 9 points) and the Philadelphia Union (3-2-5, 14 points) at Subaru Park (7:30 p.m., MLS Season Pass on Apple TV+). This is the first of two regular-season meeting between the Eastern Conference clubs in 2024, with the Union scheduled to make the return trip to Orlando on Oct. 2.

Here’s what you need to know ahead of the match.

History

Orlando City is 5-7-6 in the 18 MLS meetings with the Union since the club joined Major League Soccer in 2015, and 6-8-6 in all competitions. The Lions are 3-5-1 against the Union on the road in league play and 3-6-1 away against Philadelphia in all competitions.

The teams last met on June 21, 2023 in Orlando, with the Lions blowing a two-goal lead in a controversial 2-2 draw. Duncan McGuire and Martin Ojeda scored early in each half, only to see Jack McGlynn score on a cross into the box that missed everyone and got past Mason Stajduhar at the far post, followed by a rocket shot by Jose Martinez from distance. Ivan Angulo’s would-be game winner by Ivan Angulao was chalked off after a questionable foul call in the buildup against Ercan Kara.

The teams met in Philadelphia most recently on March 25, 2023 with the Lions jumping out to a 2-0 lead on goals by Angulo and Ojeda. Former Lion Andres Perea pulled one back but the Lions held on for a 2-1 road win. The victory snapped Philadelphia’s incredible 24-match home unbeaten streak.

The Union put the Lions to the sword in the last meeting of 2022, a dominant 5-1 win by Philadelphia on Sept. 10 of that year. That was Orlando’s first match since winning the U.S. Open Cup title three days earlier. Joao Moutinho’s own goal started the scoring and the Union got goals from Mikael Uhre, Daniel Gazdag (penalty), Alejandro Bedoya, and Jack Elliott. Perea, who was then still a Lion, scored for Orlando but the team was trailing by 4-0 at the time.

The Eastern Conference foes met on July 23, 2022 at Exploria Stadium. Two controversial video review decisions went against Orlando that night and the Lions were wasteful with their chances in an evenly matched 1-0 Philadelphia win. Gazdag scored the game’s only goal off a set piece.

The teams also met in U.S. Open Cup play on May 10, 2022, with the Lions winning 2-1 at home. Kara and Perea hoisted Orlando to a 2-0 lead. Stuart Findlay pulled one back late, but the Lions saw it out and advanced.

On Sept. 19, 2021 the Union prevailed 3-1 at Subaru Park, largely due to a brace by Kacper Przybylko after he got away with what appeared a clear elbow to the face of Rodrigo Schlegel. Instead of being sent off and/or conceding a free kick to Orlando City, the Union scored on the ensuing play and went on to win the match. The teams met in Orlando on July 22, 2021 and the Lions got goals by Benji Michel and Perea on the team’s only two shots on target to win 2-1. Przybylko, who had feasted on Orlando since arriving in Philadelphia, pulled one back for the visitors but the Lions hung on.

The teams faced each other in the group stage of the MLS is Back Tournament in 2020 in the only meeting to date that did not take place in either side’s home stadium. The game ended in a 1-1 draw after a Mauricio Pereyra goal canceled out a strike by Ilsinho. That draw allowed the Lions to win Group A in the competition and they went on to reach the final.

The Lions and Union tangled in what was then known as Talen Energy Stadium on July 7, 2019, with the teams drawing, 2-2. Dom Dwyer and Santiago Patino brought Orlando back from 1-0 down but Przybylko poached a goal in the 90th to capture a share of the points for the Union. That match was postponed by MLS on the night it was set to take place — a move that Orlando City fought against — and instead was played the next day.

The two teams had met just a few days earlier on July 3, ending in Orlando’s 3-1 home loss against the Union. Chris Mueller and Przybylko swapped goals in the first half before Robin Jansson was sent off just prior to the break. Afterwards, the 10-man Lions gave up two more goals — to Przybylko and Fafa Picault — and then went down another man with Sacha Kljestan seeing red.

The teams drew 2-2 in a wild finish on Sept. 1, 2018 in Orlando. Just when it looked like Picault had lifted the Union to victory with a strike in the 88th minute, Scott Sutter equalized in stoppage time to salvage a point for the Lions. Dwyer and Cory Burke also scored in that match. The Lions prevailed over the Union in Philadelphia on April 13, 2018 by a 2-0 score. Dwyer and Mueller provided the offense. Orlando and Philadelphia also met that season in U.S. Open Cup play, with the Union capturing a 1-0 home win back on July 18, 2018 on a goal by Bedoya.

The teams split their two matches in 2017, with the home side prevailing both times. The Lions won 2-1 at Orlando City Stadium on March 18. The rematch was an ugly 6-1 Philadelphia win in the season finale for both teams.

The Lions were 1-1-1 against Philadelphia in 2016. The team’s first road victory in the series came on Oct. 16, 2016, as the Lions roared, 2-0. The teams played to a 2-2 draw on May 25 in Orlando. Tranquillo Barnetta’s free kick gave Philly a 2-1 win.

Orlando drew 0-0 at home and lost on the road, 1-0 (on a penalty kick), against Philadelphia in 2015.

Overview

Orlando City enters tonight’s match looking to turn things around after two straight losses put a screeching halt to a four-game unbeaten run. The most recent of those was last Saturday’s 1-0 home loss to FC Cincinnati on a goal conceded in the opening half minute. From there, Cincinnati didn’t create a lot, but Orlando struggled to finish and fell at home.

Orlando is 1-2-1 on the road this season, but the draw and the win came in the Lions’ two most recent away matches at Montreal and D.C. United, respectively. One reason for that is that Orlando scored a total of five goals in those two matches, whereas the team has struggled to score for most of the season so far.

Philadelphia enters tonight also not quite living up to expectations, but at least the Union are currently above the playoff line — in eighth place, which would result in having to start with the play-in game if Philly stays where it is. The Union are just 1-2-1 at home so far this season — a far cry from their long home unbeaten streak the Lions snapped in their 2023 visit to Subaru Park.

coming off a weekend off following a 2-1 road loss at San Jose 11 days ago. The Union are 3-4-1 on the road in 2023, however, Philly had won three straight on the road and was unbeaten in four prior to visiting the Earthquakes. Only three Eastern Conference teams have scored more goals than Philadelphia’s 28, yet only three Eastern teams have conceded fewer than the 17 goals the Union have allowed. Philly enters on a four-match winless skid (0-2-2), which includes losses in the team’s last two home games against Western Conference opponents Seattle and Real Salt Lake.

Typically, the Union like to deploy in a 4-4-2 diamond formation under Jim Curtin. Gazdag is the key man as he can both score and turn provider for others. He leads the Union with six goals to go along with one assist in 2024. Carranza, who is Philly’s second-leading scorere, will miss the match due to yellow card accumulation, but Uhre is another danger man that Orlando City must always keep under wraps. Uhre is third among Union scorers with three goals on the season, and he has one assist as well. The surprise player for Philadelphia in 2024 has been Quinn Sullivan, who leads Philly with four assists on the year. Bedoya has chipped in three assists, and fullback Kai Wagner — always a threat with crosses and set pieces — also has three.

“Philadelphia, a very traditional model they have. They have changed a couple things here and there, but not many changes on the roster,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said ahead of the match. “What I see from Philadelphia is a very traditional team that plays very direct. They are trying to find the best version too. That’s what we see.” 

Orlando City will be without Rodrigo Schlegel (suspension), Ramiro Enrique (ankle), Rafael Santos (shoulder), and Homegrown defender Tahir Reid-Brown (thigh), while Dagur Dan Thorhallsson (concussion protocol) is listed as questionable.

Match Content

• Our Intelligence Report features insight into the Union from Joe Lister of the independent Philadelphia blog, Philadelphia Soccer Now.
• The most recent PawedCast includes our key matchups and score predictions for tonight’s game, and a Union preview with Philadelphia Soccer Now Managing Editor Matt Ralph.
• Our David Rohe provided his three keys to an Orlando City victory in Philadelphia.

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Official Lineups:

Orlando City (3-5-2),

Goalkeeper: Pedro Gallese.

Defenders: Robin Jansson, Wilder Cartagena, David Brekalo.

Midfielders: Ivan Angulo, Cesar Araujo, Martin Ojeda, Nico Lodeiro, Facundo Torres.

Forwards: Luis Muriel, Duncan McGuire.

Bench: Mason Stajduhar, Kyle Smith, Alex Freeman, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, Abdi Salim, Felipe, Jeorgio Kocevski, Yutaro Tsukada, Jack Lynn.

Philadelphia Union (4-4-2 diamond)

Goalkeeper: Oliver Semmle.

Defenders: Kai Wagner, Damion Lowe, Jakob Glesnes, Nathan Harriel.

Midfielders: Jose Martinez, Jack McGlynn, Daniel Gazdag, Alejandro Bedoya.

Forwards: Quinn Sullivan, Michael Uhre.

Bench: Andrew Rick, Olwethu Makhanya, Jack Elliott, Jeremy Rafanello, Jesus Bueno, Leon Flach, Sanders Ngabo, Chris Donovan, Tai Baribo.

Referees:

REF: Timothy Ford.
AR1: Brian Dunn.
AR2: Ben Pilgrim.
4TH: Marcos DeOliveira.
VAR: Michael Radchuk.
AVAR: TJ Zablocki.

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How to Watch

Match Time: 7:30 p.m.

Venue: Subaru Park — Chester, PA.

TV/Streaming: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV+.

Radio: Real Radio 104.1 FM (English), Mega 97.1 FM (Spanish).

Twitter: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow along at @TheManeLand, as well as Orlando City’s official Twitter feed (@OrlandoCitySC).

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Enjoy the match. Go City!

After another agonizing loss at home a week ago to FC Cincinnati, Orlando City finds itself near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings almost a third of the way through the regular season. For an organization that entered the 2024 Major League Soccer season with lofty expectations, the beginning of the season has fallen significantly short of preseason projections.

For the most part, the facts that supported those preseason projections still mainly hold true. Orlando brought back its core offensive and defensive pieces, made some specific and pointed acquisitions in an attempt to upgrade, and was still managed by a coach who had enjoyed unparalleled success at the helm for the club.

So with all those things holding true, the head scratching question at this point in the season is what has gone wrong? During the first five to six weeks of the season, Orlando had to balance the regular season and Concacaf Champions Cup. Those days are now long past and that excuse for poor on-field performances no longer holds water.

In years past, Orlando has demonstrated its ability to grow into the season and last year’s record-setting team didn’t find its form until after the Leagues Cup competition. Nonetheless, Orlando City fans have not seen a team stumble out of the gate this badly in recent years. It’s time to reset the expectations for the 2024 MLS season and look to see what the team would have to do to turn the season on its head.

In 2023, Orlando City put up a club-record 63 points by season’s end, but if we break down the numbers of the early season, we can see that it might not be time to press the panic button just yet. Through the first 10 matches of 2023, Orlando put up 14 points on a 4-4-2 record with a goal differential of zero. Orlando City currently sits on nine points through its first 10 matches with a 2-5-3 record and a -7 goal differential. On the surface, those numbers seem to be a stark contrast to one another, but when you take into account a five-goal drubbing at Inter Miami, the goal differential that the team is supporting this year is mainly dragged down by one forgettable outing.

Add in a short-handed loss in Atlanta earlier in March, when the team was banged up and missing Wilder Cartagena due to suspension, as well as a heartbreaking last-ditch collapse against Toronto FC two weeks ago, and the picture starts to look less bleak than just what the numbers would suggest. Still, good teams find ways to not drop points at home and to manage matches where there are pieces of the machine missing.

With 24 matches still on the schedule, there is time to climb the table, but with every dropped point or bad loss the clock ticks closer to midnight and the margin for error becomes smaller.

In 2023, Charlotte FC snuck into the playoff wild card position with 43 points on the season, and only 10 wins. It doesn’t seem wildly out of the imagination that Orlando could reach that level this year. Extrapolating the data going back to 2021, with the current MLS playoff qualifications, a team would need an average of 44 points to make the postseason. That equates to Orlando needing 35 points over its final 24 matches — or 1.45 points per match — to reach the wild card round.

A somewhat more lofty goal would be qualifying for the playoffs without the wild card. Again, going back to average the seventh-place spot in the East over the last three years, Orlando would need to reach 48 points this season to avoid a play-in game. That equates to 39 points over the final 24 matches, or 1.62 points per match. In 2023, Orlando managed 49 points over its final 24 matches of the year — that’s 2.04 points per match.

I am not projecting Orlando to go on that same massive (MLS best) type of run over the summer and fall portions of the season, but I do believe that when it comes to expectations on the season there is still hope to be had for Orlando qualifying for the playoffs. The more likely scenario would be for Orlando to end up in the wild card matchup, but with a few extra matches breaking Orlando’s way, it is not a stretch yet to consider the club could climb slightly higher. There is also still the Leagues Cup on the horizon, and regardless of one’s opinion on the competition, a deep, competitive run in that competition could give meaning to the Lions’ 10th anniversary season.

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We can likely put to bed the hopes of competing for the Shield or the top spot in the East at this point in the season, given the number of teams above the Lions and the number of matches remaining. However, it is still far too early to give up on the season as a whole. Orlando was five minutes away from going undefeated in the month of April, and there are still meaningful and winnable games on the calendar ahead. My recalibrated expectation of the season is for Orlando to earn a wild card spot, and anything above that would be gravy as far as I am concerned.

What reset expectations do you have for the year? Let us know in the comments below and as always, Vamos Orlando!