Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Minnesota United: Player Grades and Man of the Match
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/OCvFCC-2019.05-47-1-scaled.jpg)
So close, and yet so far. If not for a wonky deflection from a long throw-in and an unfortunate (but correct) offside call, Orlando very well could have snuck out of Minnesota with three points in the bag.
Instead a point will have to do, and while I certainly would have taken a draw before the game if it had been offered to me (Minnesota has only lost once at home all year), the fact that Toronto, Montreal and New England all could only manage draws definitely made it feel like a missed opportunity. Anyway, on to my grades.
Starters
GK, Brian Rowe, 7.5 (MotM) — When it came to shot stopping, Rowe had about the best night he could have had. He saved five of the six shots he faced, and probably had no right to make two of them, parrying a close-range Darwin Quintero shot out of the danger area and getting a strong right glove to another close shot in the second half from Robin Lod. He was absolutely helpless on the goal, and while his distribution wasn’t the best on the night, without the two excellent saves he made Orlando wouldn’t have even sniffed the point it eventually brought home from Minnesota.
D, Kamal Miller, 6 — It was a solid if unspectacular night from Miller at left back. He grew into the game as the first half went on, even after getting nutmegged by Ethan Finlay. He played a particularly smart pass in the 34th minute to release Benji Michel down the wing, but lost his man at the back post just before halftime and was lucky that the Lions didn’t concede because of it. He’s done well deputizing out wide, but the team has missed the width that Joao Moutinho is usually capable of providing.
D, Robin Jansson, 7 — Jansson was his usual composed and steady self in the center of defense. In the opening minutes of the match he did exceptionally well to pull back and hold the defensive line, catching his man offside in the process. He also made a number of clearances on balls played into the box and was very unlucky to have the goal come as a result of a deflection off his body.
D, Lamine Sané, 7 — Sané too provided exactly what we’ve come to expect from him this year — a solid and steady presence at the center back position. He passed the ball particularly well with an 88% connection rate on his passes, won two aerial duels, and, like his partner Jansson, he cleared the ball on a number of occasions. He even had a successful dribble to top off his well-rounded night.
D, Kyle Smith, 5.5 — Perhaps I’m nitpicking but for me Smith didn’t have the best night. The thing is, he played pretty well defensively, making a pair of tackles and blocking several would-be balls into the box. The problem for me came on the offensive side of the ball. He generally did a good job of getting forward but there were a couple occasions where his final ball into the box was lacking and sloppy passes led to the dissolution of at least two Orlando City attacks/spells of possession in the offensive half. I thought he improved after halftime and maybe his grade being low is simply because of how dangerous Ruan typically is on the right side of defense.
MF, Will Johnson, 6.5 — It was a fairly quiet night for Johnson. He made several good tackles on the edge of the box and passed at a great 89% rate, while doing a good job of clogging things up in the middle of the field. He began to tire in the second half though, which is rather understandable considering he spent his time on the field running as hard as he always does. His influence waned with his legs though, and James O’Connor was probably smart not to keep him on the field for the full 90.
MF, Nani, 6.5 — To be honest, this is a grade that I struggled with. For a lot of the first half Nani was marked quite tightly and it showed. He only had a 73% passing rate and was dispossessed on three occasions, and while he won a duel in the air he didn’t look as sharp as many of us are accustomed to seeing. With that being said he was much better in the second half after moving to his more comfortable wing position. He was also clever to get his body in front of Ike Opara to win the penalty kick and was equally calm when it came to slotting it away in the bottom corner. Hopefully the introduction of Mauricio Pereyra will mean the burden of creative duties is lessened.
MF, Sebas Mendez, 7 — Mendez was his typical self in defensive midfield. He did an excellent job of breaking up Minnesota attacks, recording four tackles in the process. He also had a passing accuracy of 93% and even managed to win an aerial duel — no mean feat when you’re listed at 5-foot-7. In general it was a good night for him, despite some loose passes in his own end, and, while he didn’t necessarily do anything spectacular, when you play the position he does, the less your name is called the better.
F, Benji Michel, 7 —I quite like what I’ve seen out of Michel for most of his time on the field this year and tonight was no different. He was lively and eager to run at defenders every chance he got, with three successful dribbles to show for it. On one of those dribbles he probably should have passed the ball wide to Robinho rather than having a shot at goal, but that sort of decision making should come as he matures. It was by no means a perfect game but he looked the most dangerous of the starting front three.
F, Dom Dwyer, 6 — It wasn’t the best night for Dom. While he won four aerial duels, much of what he was asked to do involved going up against center backs with a height advantage to try and win balls lofted out from the back. Still, he found himself in good positions on several occasions but was unable to get off a shot on the night. His passing accuracy of 60% also left quite a bit to be desired, and while he fought hard, it wasn’t a surprise to see his name come up on the substitutes board when it did.
F, Robinho, 6.5 — Perhaps y’all will disagree but I thought Robinho played rather well for the half that he was on the field. He completed two dribbles, made two tackles, passed at an 84% clip, and did exceptionally well to intercept a ball in the 37th minute, run at the defense and play a dangerous ball into the area. However, the Lions were in need of a formation change after halftime and him coming off for Mauricio Pereyra meant that Nani was able to play out wide where he’s more comfortable. It hurt my heart to see him being consoled on the sideline and he clearly still wanted to be out on the field trying to bring home three points.
Substitutes
MF, Mauricio Pereyra (46’), 6.5 — Pereyra came on for his Orlando City debut after halftime, replacing Robinho and slotting into the midfield. While he didn’t do anything especially spectacular, he did vital work pressing the ball and marking well through the center of the field. In addition he made a great tackle on the edge of the Loons’ box to keep the ball with Orlando, and completed a nifty little dribble out wide in the 88th minute to keep possession near midfield. He worked a nice give-and-go with Tesho Akindele deep in stoppage time that initially won a penalty until video review showed the Canadian was just offside.
F, Tesho Akindele (63’), 6.5 — Tesho had a much easier time of it when it came to hold-up play simply because he’s a bigger guy than Dwyer is, and he provided a better outlet that was sorely needed as the game wore on. He also showed absolutely fantastic awareness to play a first-time ball for Nani at midfield that sent him in behind the Minnesota defense and eventually resulted in him winning the penalty. He was disgustingly unlucky to be offside in the 94th minute, which negated a handball in the Loons’ box. He had a positive impact on the game overall though, and looks more and more like an extremely astute purchase.
MF, Carlos Ascues (78’), 6 — Ascues came on for Will Johnson to provide fresh legs in the middle of the field and help shut up shop for the remainder of the game. For the most part he did just that, clearing the ball several times and hassling Minnesota as the Loons tried to start attacks through the middle of the field. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to get up high enough to prevent Ike Opara from flicking on the long throw on which Orlando conceded. Still, it was a solid cameo from the Peruvian.
That’s how I saw things from the match. Please let us know your vote for the Man of the Match in the poll below.
Polling Closed
Player | Votes |
Nani | 3 |
Brian Rowe | 90 |
Lamine Sane | 2 |
Robin Jansson | 6 |
Sebas Mendez | 1 |
Someone else | 1 |
Opinion
Martin Ojeda Can Further Build on an Improved 2024
Martin Ojeda has picked things up after a slow start to the season, but he has room to play even better.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/OCvMontreal-LeaguesCup-2024.07.26-29-1-scaled.jpg)
Argentinian attacking midfielder Martin Ojeda finished his maiden season in an Orlando City uniform with six goals and 10 assists. While 16 goal contributions in his first year in a new league with unfamiliar surroundings isn’t a terrible return, there was a widespread sense that he didn’t perform at the level the Lions needed from a Designated Player. He improved the deeper Orlando got into the year though, and coming into the 2024 season, a lot of the projections involving OCSC being one of the best teams in the league were predicated on him taking the next step and becoming a true force in Major League Soccer. So, has that happened?
The broad numbers say that it hasn’t. Through 27 appearances and 1,582 minutes, Ojeda has three goals and eight assists, compared to six goals and 10 assists in 34 appearances and 1,751 minutes in 2023. The Argentine still has time to eclipse his totals from last year, but barring a positively explosive run of form, it’ll take him more minutes to do so. For my money, it isn’t quite that simple though.
For one thing, Ojeda has shown improvement in two key areas: passing accuracy and key passes. His accuracy is up to 84% in 2024, while it was 79% last season. He’s also already eclipsed his total for key passes in 2023, currently sitting on 45, compared to the 42 he finished with in his debut season in purple. That suggests that not only is he passing the ball better, but he’s also putting it in more dangerous areas than previously. Some of that is to be expected, considering his shift into the center of the field to play the no. 10, but he’s still had to adapt to the new position, and he’s looked more and more comfortable as the year has continued.
Let’s talk about that positional change a little. The first few months of the season were ugly for just about everyone wearing an Orlando City jersey. Guys were hurt, off on international duty, or suspended, and many of the ones who could play were forced to do so in positions that weren’t natural for them. At various points throughout the early months of 2024, he found himself playing in the hole behind two strikers, as a deep-lying playmaker, deputizing at striker himself, or dropped from the starting XI entirely.
It was hard to argue with him coming off the bench, as he had just three assists in the 16 games prior to the LAFC match on June 15. He got his first league goal of the year in that match though, and in the 11 games since then, he’s recorded two goals and four assists. While not a staggering return, he’s trending in the right direction. Outside of the numbers, he looks capable of being able to produce at a higher level.
Saturday’s match against Nashville SC provided two specific instances which I found encouraging. The first was his assist on Ivan Angulo’s opening goal, specifically the way in which Ojeda created the goal.
Everything about that is fantastic. The anticipation and work rate to get into a position to intercept the wayward pass, the vision to see Angulo’s position, the quick decision to play the one-touch pass, and the execution to deliver that pass squarely on the money. One of the knocks on Ojeda in an OCSC shirt has been his decision making and execution in the final third, as at times he’s settled for long potshots or held onto the ball too long before trying to find a teammate. None of that was on display here, and the speed of thought, coupled with the execution, meant that Orlando grabbed an early lead.
Let’s then talk about the turn he executed at midfield during the buildup to Facundo Torres’ first goal. Ojeda receives the ball, takes a touch, neatly slips it through a defender’s legs, and then immediately drives hard at the Nashville defense before releasing the ball and finding Torres in space. It’s one moment of skill, but it’s something that happens when you have a guy who’s playing with confidence, and the fact that he then made the right pass at the right time makes it even better.
Those are the moments that we’ve started to see more of from the Designated Player as the year has gone on, and we’ll need to continue seeing more of if Orlando City wants to keep pushing up the table.
Ojeda has a chance to improve on his debut season and really make an impact for the Lions down the stretch. If he keeps playing with confidence, making the correct decisions, and executing in the way that he’s shown this summer, it should bode well for OCSC. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 9/6/24
Amanda Allen loaned to Lexington SC, Alex Morgan announces retirement, USMNT prepares for Canada, and more.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DSC_0068.jpg)
Happy Friday! I don’t have many plans this weekend, but am still looking forward to the next few days after a hectic week. When not working, I plan on finally starting Book of Night by Holly Black and figuring out how to make the most out of some dark rum I was gifted. For now though, let’s get to today’s links from around the soccer world!
Amanda Allen Loaned to Lexington SC
The Orlando Pride have loaned forward Amanda Allen to Lexington SC for the remainder of the USL Super League season. This decision should give Allen some valuable minutes, and the loan includes a right to recall as well. The 19-year-old has made 17 appearances since joining the Pride and had an assist in this year’s season opener. She is also currently in Colombia for the U-20 Women’s World Cup and her Canada squad takes on Brazil tonight. Hopefully she’s able to tear it up in the USL Super League’s inaugural season.
Alex Morgan Announces Her Retirement
American forward Alex Morgan has announced that she will retire after the San Diego Wave’s match on Sunday. She also announced that she is pregnant with her second child.
In her 224 international appearances, Morgan scored 123 goals and was a major force behind the USWNT’s back-to-back World Cup victories in 2015 and 2019. At the club level, she has played in every year of the NWSL’s existence and joined the Orlando Pride ahead of their inaugural season in 2016. In her six years in Orlando, Morgan recorded 23 goals and 10 assists in 69 appearances. Off the field, she’s been an outspoken supporter of equality and increased investment in women’s sports. We wish her the best of luck after a legendary career.
USMNT Faces Canada on Saturday
The United States Men’s National Team will take on Canada on Saturday in Kansas City in the first of two friendlies this month. Plenty has changed since the U.S. beat Canada in a penalty shootout in the 2023 Concacaf Gold Cup quarterfinals, particularly on the sideline. American coach Jesse Marsch was hired by Canada in May, while the U.S. will be led by Mikey Varas in an interim capacity amid buzz that Mauricio Pochettino will take over. The U.S. is without Giovanni Reyna for these friendlies due to injury, with Cade Cowell replacing him. Canada boasts a talented roster that includes a trio of former Lions in Cyle Larin, Richie Laryea, and Kamal Miller. After this match, the USMNT will take on New Zealand on Tuesday.
Keeping Up With International Soccer
San Marino may be one of the smallest countries in the world, but it arguably had the biggest win of a busy day of international soccer after beating Liechtenstein 1-0 for its first competitive victory. Elsewhere in the UEFA Nations League, Cristiano Ronaldo scored his 900th career goal in Portugal’s 2-1 win over Croatia, while Spain was held to a scoreless draw in Serbia.
The third round of AFC World Cup qualifying is underway and Australia was upset 1-0 at home by Bahrain. Japan suffered no such setback though, dominating China in a 7-0 home win. Palestine drew 0-0 against South Korea in Seoul, which is no easy task.
CONMEBOL’s World Cup qualifiers have also resumed, and Bolivia came up with a huge 4-0 win in high altitude against Venezuela to move up the table. We may see some Lions in action today. Facundo Torres and Uruguay take on Paraguay, while Pedro Gallese, Wilder Cartagena, and Peru host Colombia.
Free Kicks
- FC Cincinnati’s Luca Orellano won MLS Goal of the Matchday for scoring from nearly 80 yards out to beat CF Montreal goalkeeper Jonathan Sirois. Orlando’s Facundo Torres placed second in the voting for his volleyed strike against Nashville SC.
- NJ/NY Gotham FC forward Ella Stevens was named NWSL Player of the Month after recording three goals and two assists in August.
- Argentina beat Brazil in blind soccer at the Paralympics, ending Brazil’s unbeaten streak that has lasted the past 20 years. France and Argentina will face off in the gold medal game on Saturday.
- Chris Jurasek has stepped down as Chelsea’s chief executive after a year in the position, with Jason Gannon replacing him.
That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!
Orlando City
Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season
A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CityReper83124-42.jpg)
We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.
The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:
- Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
- Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
- At Columbus (1.96, second)
- At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
- Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
- At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
- Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)
As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.
In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.
In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)
New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Last-7-Games-1024x257.png)
A few takeaways from this chart:
- I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
- That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
- Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
- Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.
During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Possible-7-Game-Results.png)
Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.
Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.
No, that loss still stunk.
Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Algorithm-1024x262.png)
That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Rank-Order.png)
Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.
I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.
While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.
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